Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election.  If he wins in December, he'll likely stay in the Senate and be a thorn in their side for years.  But if he loses the general, the seat goes D for probably only one year, and Jones would be replaced by a less crazy Republican than Moore.  Short term loss, long term gain for the GOP.

Whoever wins the general serves the rest of Sessions's old term, which does not end until Jan. 2021.  Thus, in 2018, the senate becomes slightly less safe for Rs. Currently, dems have to hold all their seats and sweep the vulnerable R seats (AZ, NV, UT) to get the senate. But if AL is suddenly a D seat, Dems can afford one mistake along their path, which is a significant benefit as it allows them to lose Missouri (which is virtually certain) and still get the senate as long as they don't mess up elsewhere. It's an unnecessary risk for Rs.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election.  If he wins in December, he'll likely stay in the Senate and be a thorn in their side for years.  But if he loses the general, the seat goes D for probably only one year, and Jones would be replaced by a less crazy Republican than Moore.  Short term loss, long term gain for the GOP.

Whoever wins the general serves the rest of Sessions's old term, which does not end until Jan. 2021.  Thus, in 2018, the senate becomes slightly less safe for Rs. Currently, dems have to hold all their seats and sweep the vulnerable R seats (AZ, NV, UT) to get the senate. But if AL is suddenly a D seat, Dems can afford one mistake along their path, which is a significant benefit as it allows them to lose Missouri (which is virtually certain) and still get the senate as long as they don't mess up elsewhere. It's an unnecessary risk for Rs.

I don't see Moore losing either. He's more popular than Strange and does better than Strange against Jones. Plus turnout was up at my precinct this morning, which is good for Moore.

[The Other Castro]

RIP Strange's turnout operation, now that repeal/replace is dead.

[Matty]

Castro, was there early voting for this runoff primary?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Castro, was there early voting for this runoff primary?

Alabama doesn't have "no excuse" early voting.  A voter can cast an absentee ballot if one of the following is true:

You will be absent from the county on Election Day

You are ill or have a physical disability that prevents a trip to the polling place

You are a registered Alabama voter who is temporarily living outside the county (such as a member of the armed forces, a voter employed outside of the United States, a college student, or a spouse or child of such a person)

You are an appointed election officer or poll watcher at a polling place other than your regular polling place

You work a required shift – 10 hours or more – that coincides with polling hours

Source

[Brittain33]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election. 

How would they do that?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election. 

How would they do that?

The NRSC, SLF, etc. could refuse to run ads promoting his candidacy, refuse to hold fundraisers for his candidacy, etc. They could also release a statement outright saying that Moore does not deserve election to the senate, with or without an explicit endorsement of Jones. McConnell could also release a statement saying Moore won't get his preferred committee assignments should he be elected.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election. 

How would they do that?

The NRSC, SLF, etc. could refuse to run ads promoting his candidacy, refuse to hold fundraisers for his candidacy, etc. They could also release a statement outright saying that Moore does not deserve election to the senate, with or without an explicit endorsement of Jones. McConnell could also release a statement saying Moore won't get his preferred committee assignments should he be elected.

Better question, Why would they do that?

[The Other Castro]

Moore is going to get the full support of the Republican Party unless he literally murders someone, in which case he'll only get most of the support.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Moore is going to get the full support of the Republican Party unless he literally murders someone, in which case he'll only get most of the support.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election. 

How would they do that?

The NRSC, SLF, etc. could refuse to run ads promoting his candidacy, refuse to hold fundraisers for his candidacy, etc. They could also release a statement outright saying that Moore does not deserve election to the senate, with or without an explicit endorsement of Jones. McConnell could also release a statement saying Moore won't get his preferred committee assignments should he be elected.

Better question, Why would they do that?

I don't believe they would - as I said earlier, it creates an unnecessary risk re: 2018 senate (risk as in raising dem chances of senate control from <1% to ~5% - not much of a risk, but still a risk). But the question only asked the "How" part, not the "Why".

[The Other Castro]

Also, useful spreadsheet that I found with the results of the 2017 AL Sen Primary, 2016 GOP primary, 2012 Supreme Court race, and 2012 GOP primary.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h_xnmoOD3ol8cQQSEAGernrjvOGRw8wI1w5YJYYjinU/htmlview#

[Dr. Arch]

Moore is going to get the full support of the Republican Party unless he literally murders someone, in which case he'll only get most of the support.

This is the Republican party of today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election. 

How would they do that?

The NRSC, SLF, etc. could refuse to run ads promoting his candidacy, refuse to hold fundraisers for his candidacy, etc. They could also release a statement outright saying that Moore does not deserve election to the senate, with or without an explicit endorsement of Jones. McConnell could also release a statement saying Moore won't get his preferred committee assignments should he be elected.

Better question, Why would they do that?

In the original post, I suggested that it might be in order to replace Jones with a saner Republican at the next general election for this seat (which I mistakenly thought would be in 2018, not 2020 -- thanks for correcting that, Wulfric) rather than having Moore as a thorn in their sides for years.  I agree this is quite unlikely, and even more so with the 2020 vs 2018 correction.  But wild speculation is usually in fashion here.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close in about 90 minutes. Results Coverage Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.msg5840105
NYT results page: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate-special-election-primary-runoff-alabama

[Free Bird]

Who the hell would have said Senator Roy Moore a year ago?

[Don Vito Corleone]

Wait this is tonight? I could have sworn it was in December.

[The Other Castro]

Wait this is tonight? I could have sworn it was in December.

The general election is.

Also: Trump told conservatives he expects Strange to lose.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/26/alabama-senate-trump-strange-moore-243171

[Matty]

Turnout is only 12% supposedly

[_]

Looking forward to corrupt Strange getting Kirked. Or should I say Landrieud?

Cochrane-  oh, nevermind.

Probably Kirked.

[Heisenberg]

Looking forward to corrupt Strange getting Kirked. Or should I say Landrieud?

It'll be fun!!!!

[Canis]

Roy Moore is a monster and Strange is a joke going in with very low expectations Im hoping a joke can beat a monster

[heatcharger]

Updated the OP with some election results pages. Anyone have the links to the AP and the Alabama SOS results pages?

[GlobeSoc]

expecting a moore landslide, hoping to be surprised.

[Mr. Smith]

Who the hell would have said Senator Roy Moore a year ago?

Anyone if they had figured Jeff Sessions would leave...itself a bit of a long-odd outcome, even with Trump winning.