Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Alabama_Indy10]

It's not like he's been shy about his being pro choice on his website. Tbh, this election was never about Jones somehow winning over mythical Alabama swing voters. It's all about turnout in a December off year election. The only way Jones wins is if dems turn out and republicans stay home. Maybe being strongly pro choice will be a motivating factor for AL dems.

If anything, being strongly pro-choice will be a bigger motivating factor for AL Republicans.

[Young Conservative]

It's not like he's been shy about his being pro choice on his website. Tbh, this election was never about Jones somehow winning over mythical Alabama swing voters. It's all about turnout in a December off year election. The only way Jones wins is if dems turn out and republicans stay home. Maybe being strongly pro choice will be a motivating factor for AL dems.

If anything, being strongly pro-choice will be a bigger motivating factor for AL Republicans.

Being ProChoice destroys him. My family in Alabama (who voted against Moore consistently in every the  election so far) was considering voting for Jones. I showed them the article where he defends abortion rights. They won't vote for him anymore or even consider it (they'll likely abstain or bite their tongue and vote Moore). There are many other people like this in Alabama I assume and in other southern states.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If there was a competent third party candidate running who was to Jones's right on Abortion, it would be very tempting to endorse that candidate instead of Jones.

[Kamala]

If there was a competent third party candidate running who was to Jones's right on Abortion, it would be very tempting to endorse that candidate instead of Jones.

Go ahead and endorse this theoretical candidate. Maybe he'll benefit as much as your other endorsements.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If there was a competent third party candidate running who was to Jones's right on Abortion, it would be very tempting to endorse that candidate instead of Jones.

Go ahead and endorse this theoretical candidate. Maybe he'll benefit as much as your other endorsements.

I don't endorse candidates who don't actually exist.

[Alabama_Indy10]

It's not like he's been shy about his being pro choice on his website. Tbh, this election was never about Jones somehow winning over mythical Alabama swing voters. It's all about turnout in a December off year election. The only way Jones wins is if dems turn out and republicans stay home. Maybe being strongly pro choice will be a motivating factor for AL dems.

If anything, being strongly pro-choice will be a bigger motivating factor for AL Republicans.

Being ProChoice destroys him. My family in Alabama (who voted against Moore consistently in every the  election so far) was considering voting for Jones. I showed them the article where he defends abortion rights. They won't vote for him anymore or even consider it (they'll likely abstain or bite their tongue and vote Moore). There are many other people like this in Alabama I assume and in other southern states.

Absolutely.. A pro-choice candidate cannot win in the state of Alabama.. Jones's strong pro-choice views will motivate Republicans to turn out against him.

[Young Conservative]

It's not like he's been shy about his being pro choice on his website. Tbh, this election was never about Jones somehow winning over mythical Alabama swing voters. It's all about turnout in a December off year election. The only way Jones wins is if dems turn out and republicans stay home. Maybe being strongly pro choice will be a motivating factor for AL dems.

If anything, being strongly pro-choice will be a bigger motivating factor for AL Republicans.

Being ProChoice destroys him. My family in Alabama (who voted against Moore consistently in every the  election so far) was considering voting for Jones. I showed them the article where he defends abortion rights. They won't vote for him anymore or even consider it (they'll likely abstain or bite their tongue and vote Moore). There are many other people like this in Alabama I assume and in other southern states.

Absolutely.. A pro-choice candidate cannot win in the state of Alabama.. Jones's strong pro-choice views will motivate Republicans to turn out against him.

I would bet that a sizable chunk of Alabama democrats are ProLife too.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate Republicans on Moore: Literally who?

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/27/roy-moore-senate-republicans-no-comment-243220?lo=ap_c1

[smoltchanov]

It's not like he's been shy about his being pro choice on his website. Tbh, this election was never about Jones somehow winning over mythical Alabama swing voters. It's all about turnout in a December off year election. The only way Jones wins is if dems turn out and republicans stay home. Maybe being strongly pro choice will be a motivating factor for AL dems.

I haven't seen polling of Alabama on Abortion, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's like Louisiana, where even the state democratic establishment is well to the right of the national democratic platform.

Not only "to the right" in Louisiana... There are lots of absolutely pro-life (100% according to Louisiana Right to Life) elected Democrats there, and virtually no one - 100% pro-choice. IMHO, situation is slightly better for choice supporters in Alabama, but only slightly... Patricia Todd is the only one among white Democratic legislators in Alabama, who may be pro-choice (and part of Black legislators will be pro-life too)...

[kelestian]

How much money have Strange and Moore spent?

[Brittain33]

1) Demonstrate how McConnell is corrupt and incompetent.  I won't dispute the claims if you articulate how.

He's not particularly corrupt by Republican standards, but in 2017 he's amply demonstrated his incompetence in actually passing legislation or doing anything constructive, as opposed to his deep strategic and tactical competence in obstructing a Democratic majority or President from accomplishing anything. Look at the budget process, health care repeal, and so far what little he's contributed to moving forward tax "reform."

[Anna Komnene]

It's not like he's been shy about his being pro choice on his website. Tbh, this election was never about Jones somehow winning over mythical Alabama swing voters. It's all about turnout in a December off year election. The only way Jones wins is if dems turn out and republicans stay home. Maybe being strongly pro choice will be a motivating factor for AL dems.

I haven't seen polling of Alabama on Abortion, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's like Louisiana, where even the state democratic establishment is well to the right of the national democratic platform.

I don't know much about it either, but let me just put it this way. Terri Sewell is also pro choice and so was Artur Davis when he had AL's democratic seat. So was Obama when he was running for president.

[Alabama_Indy10]

It's not like he's been shy about his being pro choice on his website. Tbh, this election was never about Jones somehow winning over mythical Alabama swing voters. It's all about turnout in a December off year election. The only way Jones wins is if dems turn out and republicans stay home. Maybe being strongly pro choice will be a motivating factor for AL dems.

I haven't seen polling of Alabama on Abortion, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's like Louisiana, where even the state democratic establishment is well to the right of the national democratic platform.

I don't know much about it either, but let me just put it this way. Terri Sewell is also pro choice and so was Artur Davis when he had AL's democratic seat. So was Obama when he was running for president.

They're also black Democrats who represent a 61% black district.

[smoltchanov]

It's not like he's been shy about his being pro choice on his website. Tbh, this election was never about Jones somehow winning over mythical Alabama swing voters. It's all about turnout in a December off year election. The only way Jones wins is if dems turn out and republicans stay home. Maybe being strongly pro choice will be a motivating factor for AL dems.

I haven't seen polling of Alabama on Abortion, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's like Louisiana, where even the state democratic establishment is well to the right of the national democratic platform.

I don't know much about it either, but let me just put it this way. Terri Sewell is also pro choice and so was Artur Davis when he had AL's democratic seat. So was Obama when he was running for president.

They're also black Democrats who represent a 61% black district.

+100. VRA-preserved district is one thing, statewide election - quite another....

[Anna Komnene]

Okay, I'll put it another way. The chances that Jones would win this election were always slim. His main chance of winning is that this is a December off year election where literally not much else is being voted on except like a couple tax referendums and that maybe a lot of people are burnt out on elections. The way that Jones achieves the <5% he has of winning is by somehow matching presidential/gubernatorial levels of turnout on the Democratic side while at the same time Republicans being mired in off year special election levels of turnout. As long as turnout is low, the votes are out there for a Democrat to win, regardless of what "deeply disturbing" positions that Democrat has on pointless wedge issues where he will not have much of any impact on national policy anyway. The chances that he can actually get his voters to come out en masse are pretty low, but he has to try to do it.

If Jones was able to get 650k - 750k votes, he might have an outside shot, and there are that many AL dem voters. It's just a matter of getting them out to vote in much higher numbers than the GOP voters, which won't be easy to say the least.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Regardless of what Tom Perez says, Abortion isn't something that really energizes democrats. Just 36% of democrats believe abortion to be a "critical issue". It would have been smarter for Jones to either embrace a 20 week ban, or even better,
run out the clock bashing Graham-Cassidy. (http://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/PRRI-AVS-2015-1.pdf) (Nov. 2015 survey, yes, but polling on abortion doesn't change much over time)


Also, the whole idea that all Jones needs to do to repeat Scott Brown is turn out dems well is silly. Scott Brown didn't just turn out Rs - he won unaffiliated voters by a wide margin and got about 20% of democrats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Anna Komnene]

I guess I just don't see how this is some big game changer. He was asked a question and gave an answer. Maybe he would have said something else if he had time to think about it more, I don't know. I have a hard time imagining that die hard pro lifers were going to go out and check the dem box. Even if Jones was ambivalent or didn't say anything, there would be the assumption that he's pro choice just because he's a democrat. Even if he was pro life, he could still be attacked for defending Obamacare or wanting more welfare programs. And it's not like being pro life is this great boon for AL dems either. Parker Griffith was pro life and some good that did him in the 2014 gubernatorial race. He got like 400k votes.

[Gustaf]

The obvious problem here is that abortion is a big turnout driver for the type of evangelical nutjobs that make up Moore's base while not doing much for Alabama Democrats (I'd guess).

[Alabama_Indy10]

I guess I just don't see how this is some big game changer. He was asked a question and gave an answer. Maybe he would have said something else if he had time to think about it more, I don't know. I have a hard time imagining that die hard pro lifers were going to go out and check the dem box. Even if Jones was ambivalent or didn't say anything, there would be the assumption that he's pro choice just because he's a democrat. Even if he was pro life, he could still be attacked for defending Obamacare or wanting more welfare programs. And it's not like being pro life is this great boon for AL dems either. Parker Griffith was pro life and some good that did him in the 2014 gubernatorial race. He got like 400k votes.

Because he was running against a (at that time) popular incumbent governor in a very pro Republican year.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jared Kushner will be taking the blame for Trump's decision to endorse the eventual loser. http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59ccea6fe4b0210dfdfc60ea?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss

[PragmaticPopulist]

Basically, make gains around the Black Belt, the Mobile metro and the Huntsville metro.

[Young Conservative]

Basically, make gains around the Black Belt, the Mobile metro and the Huntsville metro.

There is absolutely 0 chance that Jones wins Mobile, even if he won statewide in a fantasy universe. Mobile voted Moore over Strange.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Basically, make gains around the Black Belt, the Mobile metro and the Huntsville metro.

There is absolutely 0 chance that Moore Jones wins Mobile, even if he won statewide in a fantasy universe. Mobile voted Moore over Strange.

FTFY