Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[BudgieForce]

I dont think this race is winnable, but Moore should be embarrassed he's not crushing Jones.

[Devout Centrist]

Roy Moore's son Caleb arrested for criminal trespassing in Etowah County.

The Law and Order Party.

I mean not that I like Moore, but what does a Senate's candidate adult son getting arrested have anything to do with the party at large?

It's more the hypocrisy that tends to come out from the GOP. Poor people who defraud benefits are scum who ought to starve, but rich Republicans engaging in bribery is fine and GOP primary voters don't bat an eye. Abortion is murder and pregnant women should die rather than have one, but Republican politicians can encourage mistresses and daughters to get abortions and it's no problemo.

At the core of this is the fact that Republican law and order rhetoric is mostly a racist vendetta against ethnic minorities, while as long as the perpetrator is white they're fine with all sorts of crime being forgiven and running away from legal principles.

That's insane. Are you sure that you guys aren't the racist ones for insinuating that this law and order rhetoric focuses on minorities?

What’s the outcome of ‘law and order’ exactly?

Why are black drug users disproportionately represented in our prison system when drug use is the same for blacks and whites?

Your idea of law and order is colored by your background and your interactions with law enforcement. Different communities do not get the benefit of that doubt that you and I get.

[RINO Tom]

Roy Moore's son Caleb arrested for criminal trespassing in Etowah County.

The Law and Order Party.

I mean not that I like Moore, but what does a Senate's candidate adult son getting arrested have anything to do with the party at large?

It's more the hypocrisy that tends to come out from the GOP. Poor people who defraud benefits are scum who ought to starve, but rich Republicans engaging in bribery is fine and GOP primary voters don't bat an eye. Abortion is murder and pregnant women should die rather than have one, but Republican politicians can encourage mistresses and daughters to get abortions and it's no problemo.

At the core of this is the fact that Republican law and order rhetoric is mostly a racist vendetta against ethnic minorities, while as long as the perpetrator is white they're fine with all sorts of crime being forgiven and running away from legal principles.

I can't believe I'm agreeing with Gustaf...

Uh, it's not even remotely surprising that you would agree with what he just typed...?

[Gustaf]

Roy Moore's son Caleb arrested for criminal trespassing in Etowah County.

The Law and Order Party.

I mean not that I like Moore, but what does a Senate's candidate adult son getting arrested have anything to do with the party at large?

It's more the hypocrisy that tends to come out from the GOP. Poor people who defraud benefits are scum who ought to starve, but rich Republicans engaging in bribery is fine and GOP primary voters don't bat an eye. Abortion is murder and pregnant women should die rather than have one, but Republican politicians can encourage mistresses and daughters to get abortions and it's no problemo.

At the core of this is the fact that Republican law and order rhetoric is mostly a racist vendetta against ethnic minorities, while as long as the perpetrator is white they're fine with all sorts of crime being forgiven and running away from legal principles.

That's insane. Are you sure that you guys aren't the racist ones for insinuating that this law and order rhetoric focuses on minorities?

Lol. This really went over your head didn't it? I guess you got too triggered to think competently.

[Rookie Yinzer]

At the core of this is the fact that Republican law and order rhetoric is mostly a racist vendetta against ethnic minorities, while as long as the perpetrator is white they're fine with all sorts of crime being forgiven and running away from legal principles.

[Cashew]

Roy Moore's son Caleb arrested for criminal trespassing in Etowah County.

The Law and Order Party.

I mean not that I like Moore, but what does a Senate's candidate adult son getting arrested have anything to do with the party at large?

It's more the hypocrisy that tends to come out from the GOP. Poor people who defraud benefits are scum who ought to starve, but rich Republicans engaging in bribery is fine and GOP primary voters don't bat an eye. Abortion is murder and pregnant women should die rather than have one, but Republican politicians can encourage mistresses and daughters to get abortions and it's no problemo.

At the core of this is the fact that Republican law and order rhetoric is mostly a racist vendetta against ethnic minorities, while as long as the perpetrator is white they're fine with all sorts of crime being forgiven and running away from legal principles.

lol

How else can you explain the inconsistency regarding crack and heroin addicts?

[IceSpear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/undisclosed-deal-guaranteed-roy-moore-180000-a-year-for-part-time-work-at-charity/2017/10/11/5f56679e-a9de-11e7-850e-2bdd1236be5d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_foundation-1210pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.67bc93d73731

Oops.

Is this likely to have any effect on the race, or will Moore's supporters not care?

Why would the same people who stuck with Moore (or Trump, or...) through the countless stuff way more horrible and outrageous than this be moved by it? The answer is they won't be.

Dems obviously have no chance here (sane). The only intrigue is Moore's victory margin.

[Beet]

I mean given that one of their Congressmen jumped and started pounding another man’s face before the election, the Republicans can’t be said to care about the law.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Fox News Freedom Poll

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fox News Freedom Poll

Outlier until we get confirmation.

[Classic Conservative]

Trump's approval rating is only +1 in Alabama according to the poll and it's only RV.

[Keep cool-idge]

Fox News Freedom Poll

Fox also says with likely voters jones is up 1 point

[KingSweden]

Like I said I The VA thread - throw in the average.

[Keep cool-idge]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/17/fox-news-poll-alabama-senate-race-all-tied-up.html

[Yank2133]

I will lol if D's win AL, but lose VA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News Freedom Poll

Outlier until we get confirmation.

Probably true, but nevertheless....wow.

[Keep cool-idge]

I will lol if D's win AL, but lose VA.

[_]

Trump's Approval is not 48-47 in Alabama.

[windjammer]

Moore is leading by 5-10 probably

[Alabama_Indy10]

Trump's Approval is not 48-47 in Alabama.

You're right.

[Skill and Chance]

I will lol if D's win AL, but lose VA.

Elections for governor are just different.  They can be uncorrelated with the national environment or the state's partisan lean. 

VA-GOV 2013 went the complete opposite way of the 2014 midterms, same thing with VA-GOV 2001 and the 2002 midterms.  And VA-GOV 2005 was a Dem winning by basically the exat same margin as 2001.  That leaves only the McDonnell landslide in VA-GOV 2009 and the 2010 GOP wave midterm that remotely match.  It's not well correlated.

[Mr.Phips]

I will lol if D's win AL, but lose VA.

Elections for governor are just different.  They can be uncorrelated with the national environment or the state's partisan lean.  

VA-GOV 2013 went the complete opposite way of the 2014 midterms, same thing with VA-GOV 2001 and the 2002 midterms.  And VA-GOV 2005 was a Dem winning by basically the exat same margin as 2001.  That leaves only the McDonnell landslide in VA-GOV 2009 and the 2010 GOP wave midterm that remotely match.  It's not well correlated.

There were a couple of situations that made 2001 and 2013 non-predictive of the next midterm.

 In 2001, 9/11 basically froze the political environment to where it was prior to 9/11 with Warner leading.  Rove was not yet able to nationalize the elections around terrorism.  

In 2013, you had the government shutdown that briefly made the environment pro-Dem until the healthcare website issue turned it back to Republicans, which didn't happen quite early enough to swing the race to Cuccinelli.  

Other than those years, the VA GOV race is a pretty good predictor of the lean of the next midterm.  You could argue that Gilmore's win in 1997 should have led to 1998 being a good GOP year, but I would argue that Gilmore's win was more a function of the pro-incumbent environment (Gilmore basically ran as George Allen's clone) that continued through the 1998 election (the most pro-incumbent year in both Houses other than 1988).  

[QAnonKelly]

Does Fox News do their own polls?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Fox News do their own polls?

They use an outside pollster, usually either Opinion Dynamics or (as in this case) a joint operation by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).  Their poll results have generally been pretty good.  538 gives Fox/Opinion Dynamics a B rating with an R+0.5 bias, and the Anderson Robbins/Shaw combo an A with a D+0.4.

[Lord Admirale]

DOUG JONES IS TIED WITH ROY MOORE HE'S ACTUALLY GONNA PULL A SCOTT BROWN PRAISE JESUS