Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations
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  Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations
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Author Topic: Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations  (Read 157077 times)
fluffypanther19
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« Reply #775 on: October 17, 2017, 08:38:46 PM »

There is no way that poll is even close to be right. It’s doesnt make any sense
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #776 on: October 17, 2017, 09:38:49 PM »

There is no way that poll is even close to be right. It’s doesnt make any sense

Outliers happen.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #777 on: October 17, 2017, 09:41:46 PM »

Even if the poll was accurate the unsure voters are going to Moore.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #778 on: October 17, 2017, 10:20:30 PM »

Even if the poll was accurate the unsure voters are going to Moore.
Jones needs to be leading with over 50 to win. A tie is a Moore winning poll, especially one with a trump approval at +1
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #779 on: October 18, 2017, 01:31:17 AM »

Even if the poll was accurate the unsure voters are going to Moore.
Jones needs to be leading with over 50 to win. A tie is a Moore winning poll, especially one with a trump approval at +1

+1. Jones will get one of the best percentages for a Democrat in Alabama since 1994, but Moore will still win (sadly).... May be, if Democratic candidate would be pro-life and thus get better percentage of crossover vote - .....
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #780 on: October 18, 2017, 01:37:25 AM »

Not really an "outlier" if you look at Jones' percentage. He's been pretty consistently in the 42% range for awhile now. The margin in polls is being affected solely by those "Alabama Indys" who are almost all Republicans and who just like to pretend they're thoughtful, rational creatures.

You see the same thing to some degree in Trump's national numbers: his approval number is considerably more static in the aggregate than his disapproval number. there's a segment of people who basically go from "disapprove" to "not sure" and back again (most of whom would still vote for him if the election were held today).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #781 on: October 18, 2017, 01:51:36 AM »

Not really an "outlier" if you look at Jones' percentage. He's been pretty consistently in the 42% range for awhile now. The margin in polls is being affected solely by those "Alabama Indys" who are almost all Republicans and who just like to pretend they're thoughtful, rational creatures.

You see the same thing to some degree in Trump's national numbers: his approval number is considerably more static in the aggregate than his disapproval number. there's a segment of people who basically go from "disapprove" to "not sure" and back again (most of whom would still vote for him if the election were held today).

Yeah, it's literally impossible to be "unsure" of whether you approve or disapprove or Trump at this point unless you've been living under a hundred boulders with zero access to technology. Even while actively trying to avoid anything related to politics I still heard about him constantly. "Unsure" = approve but too embarrassed to say it. Which would put his average at 44-56, which makes perfect sense considering he got 46% of the vote and has lost minimal if any support since then (deplorables are unwinnable.)

I thought it was Georgia "independents" that liked to pretend though, not Alabama ones. Tongue Alabama ones tend to be pretty upfront...
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #782 on: October 18, 2017, 02:59:15 AM »

^ Off-Topic, but you seem to be saying that something like 80% or 90% of Trump supporters are deplorables. That's beyond silly. Mainstream Republicans who endorsed Trump like Pat Toomey, Chuck Grassley, Paul Ryan, Rick Perry, etc. may not exactly be your cup of tea, but they're hardly "deplorables", at least not in the sense Hillary was using that term, and they exist in large numbers across the country. Trump's 46% probably breaks down something like this:

~22% Deplorables (in the sense Hillary used the term - outright racists and sexists who display it proudly)
~20% Mainstream Republicans who supported Trump because they just always vote republican - no racism. Not saying this group is winnable for dems - but they don't fit in with the deplorables.
~4% People who couldn't decide right up until the end, and held their nose for Trump.

It's also silly to move literally 100% of the "not sure" into the approve column. No Presidential Approval Poll ever has 100% saying yes or no, unless they take that option out of the poll. There's always 2-4% of the country who literally is living under a rock and knows literally nothing about politics. It's silly to place them in either category.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #783 on: October 18, 2017, 07:02:32 AM »

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SamTilden2020
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« Reply #784 on: October 18, 2017, 07:15:57 AM »

There is no way that poll is even close to be right. It’s doesnt make any sense

Outliers happen.

I remember there being a sole Glenn-lead poll for 2016 CO-SEN. This may be such a case.
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Sestak
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« Reply #785 on: October 18, 2017, 12:36:06 PM »

I'd say based on what we have, Jones' chance of winning may be north of 10%. Possibly even north of 20%. However, he's still an underdog by a decent margin. It will take a very good night for Democrats to get him into the Senate. Not impossible, but not exactly likely either.
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Pyro
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« Reply #786 on: October 18, 2017, 02:35:57 PM »

Investing in a reverse Scott Brown is tempting, I'll bet. But we've been through this before.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #787 on: October 18, 2017, 05:05:42 PM »

Bill Kristol endorses Doug Jones.

https://twitter.com/billkristol/status/920763879390679040
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #788 on: October 18, 2017, 05:10:54 PM »


Kristol isn't terrifically relevant any more, but the ideological implications here might be huge.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #789 on: October 18, 2017, 05:15:39 PM »


Huh. That’s kinda surprising. I would’ve thought he would just stay quiet.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #790 on: October 18, 2017, 05:16:20 PM »


If all the MAGA chuds aren't already rearing to go, they are now.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #791 on: October 18, 2017, 05:16:40 PM »


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #792 on: October 18, 2017, 05:17:29 PM »


I would have too, but I guess it's not an earth-shaking surprise.  Kristol has been becoming increasingly disenchanted with the GOP since the ascension of Trump.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #793 on: October 18, 2017, 05:21:38 PM »


I would have too, but I guess it's not an earth-shaking surprise.  Kristol has been becoming increasingly disenchanted with the GOP since the ascension of Trump.

Yeah I guess. It’s just interesting since he still seems to be a generic conservative.

Doug Jones isn’t the worst candidate to support though if you’re a Republican.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #794 on: October 18, 2017, 05:33:49 PM »

Good for Bill Kristol.
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Sestak
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« Reply #795 on: October 18, 2017, 05:42:28 PM »


Not sure if that counts as an endorsement of Jones. I think this is more of a "Never Moore" thing, as he (rightly) thinks that Moore would be an embarrassment to the party.
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Fudotei
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« Reply #796 on: October 18, 2017, 06:49:51 PM »

Neocon does something wrong, more at 11
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #797 on: October 18, 2017, 07:01:08 PM »

Kristol is someone with whom I vehemently disagree but I gotta give him props for not taking Trump's crap.I wish more Republicans were speaking up like him.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #798 on: October 18, 2017, 09:11:00 PM »

Dogs barely sweat, and when they do, it is almost invisible Safe R.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #799 on: October 18, 2017, 09:30:32 PM »

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