Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Anna Komnene]

A net D+2 is now a very plausible outcome for 2018, between the Heller and Flake seats and the potential for a Cochran or McCain retirement, and the potential for Collins and/or Murkowski to become a Dem-caucusing Indy if it's tied is significant.  I wouldn't be entirely shocked if Collins and Murkowski left the GOP this December if Jones won.    

Why would they do that? They have absolutely no reason to switch. That also assumes that the dems hold all of their seats in red states like McCaskill, Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Nelson, etc. It's a pretty big assumption.

[Nyvin]

Greedo, you should be ashamed of yourself for this political hackery and if you run for anything in Atlasia again, I will vote against you. Defending pedophilia, particularly with insane references to history as if something being in the past makes it "good", is reprehensible and inexcusable.

I’m not these girls were 17-23 again if the 14 yearolds story gets comfirmed then I will unendorse him and apologize to everyone on here.

Too bad Republicans were never willing to give Hillary Clinton such a huge benefit of doubt.

[Young Conservative]

I actually really dislike Moore.  But I will not agree to turn the Senate over to the Democrats.

Again please do not preach morality to me when you folks elected Ted Kennedy over and over for over 40 years.  You also wanted to sneak Bill back into the White House.  I am not sure you will not try that again.

At least Republicans decked the influence pedaling Bushes. You still have to get rid of your influence pedaling Clintons. Take care of your own business.

I know we still need to get rid of the Bush grandchild in Texas.

Instinctively, I will never believe the Washington Post, a house organ of the Democrat Party, did not have the story before the primary.

Even if Jones wins, Republicans will still have the Senate until 2021 minimum, when Jones will lose re-election or retire anyway.

It doesn't matter. A temporary 3-year Senate seat in Alabama is absolutely worth it.

In any case, Jones probably gets an appointment somewhere if he wins this year and a Democrat wins in 2020.

For Democrats, he might be fielded for AG.

[Indy Texas]

If Jones at least pretends to be a moderate, the 2020 race will probably be a Tossup. Knowing AL Repulicans, they will probably blow it again. Not good!

Nope. At best it would be like the Brown-Warren MA Senate race in 2012. Jones could lose in a non-landslide.

[Arkansas Yankee]

A net D+2 is now a very plausible outcome for 2018, between the Heller and Flake seats and the potential for a Cochran or McCain retirement, and the potential for Collins and/or Murkowski to become a Dem-caucusing Indy if it's tied is significant.  I wouldn't be entirely shocked if Collins and Murkowski left the GOP this December if Jones won.   

Why would they do that? They have absolutely no reason to switch. That also assumes that the dems hold all of their seats in red states like McCaskill, Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Nelson, etc. It's a pretty big assumption.

My greatest fear is another Jeffords like switch.  I do no think Murkowski would leave as her family ties to the Party iare so strong and she is strong opponent of most Democratic energy policies.  Collins is another ?  She might leave if Jones or Moore won.  That is why I would not seat Moore if he won, unless he proved his innocence.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Moore is the kind of guy with intelligence low enough to make this situation infinitely worse. He pretty much confessed to Hannity live that he was interested in younger females.

[Skill and Chance]

I do not think it will stay tied.  It will either be Jones +15ish (Akin/Vitter scenario) or Moore +5ish (Trump/Gianforte scenario).

[McGovernForPrez]

Even if Jones wins, Republicans will still have the Senate until 2021 minimum, when Jones will lose re-election or retire anyway.

A net D+2 is now a very plausible outcome for 2018, between the Heller and Flake seats and the potential for a Cochran or McCain retirement, and the potential for Collins and/or Murkowski to become a Dem-caucusing Indy if it's tied is significant.  I wouldn't be entirely shocked if Collins and Murkowski left the GOP this December if Jones won.    
[/quote]
IceSpear thinks Manchin is DOA for some reason despite all polling and what past results suggest. He thinks it's guaranteed he loses and is factoring that into his projections.

[Cactus Jack]

I do not think it will stay tied.  It will either be Jones +15ish (Akin/Vitter scenario) or Moore +5ish (Trump/Gianforte scenario).

It isn't out of the question, but I doubt if Alabama is very likely to give us a Joneslide even if the Moore allegations hit critical mass. At this point, my most optimistic guess is Jones +5, riding heavily on depressed evangelical turnout.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Moore is the kind of guy with intelligence low enough to make this situation infinitely worse. He pretty much confessed to Hannity live that he was interested in younger females.

After replaying that radio interview Friday night, his entire panel agreed unanimously that Moore hung himself in the interview and should step aside, with Hannity desperately trying to spin the narrative about the media rush to judgment.

Geraldo even called him out on it and said "you are burying the headline".

But as I said on Friday, Moore will not step aside, for the same reason that Akin wouldn't. This is his one, only and last chance at the big leagues. He would rather go down in flames and lose be it by 1% or 20%, justified all the way in the name of fighting the evil establishment or defending Christian values. But at the end of the day it all comes back to selfishness. Democrats step aside "for the good of the cause" like Bob Torricelli. Republicans like Akin don't, their allies cast it as a larger struggle against the establishment, dig in and ride the flaming carcass of the Hindenburg right into the ground. And it is there fault that a Democrat sits in Missouri and Indiana, voting against the agenda in the Senate, not Mitch McConnell's. And it is there fault that liberal Democrat will be representing Alabama, doing likewise. But of course, it will once again be the fault of the establishment and McConnell for what is basically their own stupidity and their own selfishness. Conservatives love to claim that god is on their side, well in the words of Clint Eastwood, "No God's not on our side, because he hates idiots also".

The long term lesson from this is that Republicans have got to stop letting their anger at the establishment and their lack of trust, be manipulated by charlatans, snake oil salesmen, extremists and now pedophiles. Just like in Missouri there were two other candidates to choose from, including one with solid conservative credentials, and just like in that case, the worst option possible was selected.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Of course, if Moore wins despite all this, which is likelier than not the eventual result, it will show that you don't need to kowtow to morality or the establishment to win, and in that case McConnell should be running scared, for he could be forced out of leadership.

[Gass3268]

Another accuser coming out this afternoon:

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[Hindsight was 2020]

Another accuser coming out this afternoon:

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An here we go

[GeorgiaModerate]

I said on Friday:

I have a feeling this story won't be the last shoe to drop.

(To be fair, that wasn't a difficult thing to predict.)

[Gass3268]

I said on Friday:

I have a feeling this story won't be the last shoe to drop.

(To be fair, that wasn't a difficult thing to predict.)

It doesn't matter. Gloria Allred probably just torpedoed Jones's chances because she's a publicity hog.

I mean it's possible, if not probable, that the victim came to her. Also I think the most important thing here will be the victim telling her story on camera.

[Hindsight was 2020]

PNM is probably right. Gloria is the type of person people from Bama can use to scream "FAKE NEWS" on the issue. But on the other hand Moore seems intent to shoot himself in the foot

[Gass3268]

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[SoLongAtlas]

Moore has announced his intention to sue WaPo. http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/13/politics/roy-moore-washington-post-lawsuit/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore has announced his intention to sue WaPo. http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/13/politics/roy-moore-washington-post-lawsuit/index.html

I suspect this suit will actually be filed around the same time as the ones Trump was threatening to file against his accusers (i.e., never).

[Gass3268]

Moore has announced his intention to sue WaPo. http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/13/politics/roy-moore-washington-post-lawsuit/index.html

The discovery process would be so much fun for the Washington Post lawyers.

[Brittain33]

It really is remarkable that just about every elected official not in Alabama is taking these allegations is true. It says a lot about the rumors that must have been circulating.

[Kantakouzenos]

I said on Friday:

I have a feeling this story won't be the last shoe to drop.

(To be fair, that wasn't a difficult thing to predict.)

It doesn't matter. Gloria Allred probably just torpedoed Jones's chances because she's a publicity hog.

I don't think this will torpedo Jone's chances necessarily, but this isn't going to help him at all (not that that's what matters here).

[DFL]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-says-roy-moore-should-step-aside/

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This will change the minds of absolutely 0 Roy Moore supporters.

Does point towards a possible ejection from the Senate if elected, though.

[Gustaf]

That all GOP national politicians buy the story really does suggest it's true doesn't it?

[Pyro]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-says-roy-moore-should-step-aside/

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This will change the minds of absolutely 0 Roy Moore supporters.

Does point towards a possible ejection from the Senate if elected, though.

I have my doubts that the Senate Rs would do anything other than welcome Moore with open arms.