Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[DrScholl]

Moore is finished.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So is IceSpear still screaming "LALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU" with his fingers stuck in his ears?

Is that not what you've done with every poll that has Moore still ahead (i.e. most of them)?

This. I know it's Atlas Culture to overreact, but it's a poor strategy for political prediction. If the polls showing Jones in the lead are to come out, let them come out, and then I will be happy to change my rating. There is no need for a rush to judgment based on our preferred outcomes; that is one of many factors that doomed a large array of Atlas members including myself in our efforts to predict the 2016 election. I used this principle, along with many others, to correctly predict that Ralph Northam and Phil Murphy would win their respective gubernatorial elections. I look forward to also predicting the correct winner for this election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Predictit markets are comfortably in favor of Jones.

[Pandaguineapig]

That being said I can't possibly rule out a Moore win despite all of this given that things will inevitably cool off after a month, it'll be a low turnout election, and there's a certain game theory to voting for Moore and expecting him to get expelled and replaced by Kay Ivey. Roy Moore still belongs in the hottest pit of hell though

[GeorgiaModerate]

AL.com: Gadsden locals say Moore's predatory behavior at mall, restaurants not a secret

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Secondary lesson from all this: whoever was doing opposition research for Mo Brooks and Luther Strange needs to be fired at once.

[RogueBeaver]

New Yorker says he was allegedly banned from the mall for harassment and sex solicitation.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, there is no way Moore will ever sit in the senate. Be it he loses to Jones or the Senate votes to expel him. Even McConnell has enough sense to not accept a pedophile amongst GOP ranks. That would put them into an even worse position for 2018.

Jones deserves to win this election. He is such a good man. He's more christian than even Moore claims himself to be, yet Evangelicals rather a pedophile than a man with a D next to his name.

[Sestak]

Ted Cruz, kinda, sort of unendroses Roy Moore:

So it's just Rand left in his corner, right?

I'll give Rand the benefit of the doubt for now, because of him having just gotten back after his attack, but if he doesn't retract in the next 4-5 hours I'm going to start losing a lot of respect for the guy.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ted Cruz, kinda, sort of unendroses Roy Moore:

So it's just Rand left in his corner, right?

I'll give Rand the benefit of the doubt for now, because of him having just gotten back after his attack, but if he doesn't retract in the next 4-5 hours I'm going to start losing a lot of respect for the guy.

And Cruz wonders why all of his colleagues hate him.

[IceSpear]

AL.com: Gadsden locals say Moore's predatory behavior at mall, restaurants not a secret

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Secondary lesson from all this: whoever was doing opposition research for Mo Brooks and Luther Strange needs to be fired at once.

Moore support for Moore from the Alabungan natives:

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[Santander]

The last one raises some good points, though.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm sure most of those comments are from women. Misogyny is a helluva drug.

[Anna Komnene]

Can we stop with the cherry picking random internet comments to generalize about whole states? There are good people in Alabama, and most of them don't waste away their days spamming up AL.com.

[Blackacre]

Comments sections are not representative of any sample population, thank goodness.

The last one raises some good points, though.

The question of "why now?" has a simple answer. That answer is that with the downfall of people like Harvey Weinstein and Louis CK and Kevin Spacey, women now feel empowered to speak the truth about people who sexually assaulted them. This is new in our culture.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can we stop with the cherry picking random internet comments to generalize about whole states? There are good people in Alabama, and most of them don't waste away their days spamming up AL.com.

[IceSpear]

Can we stop with the cherry picking random internet comments to generalize about whole states? There are good people in Alabama, and most of them don't waste away their days spamming up AL.com.

No need to cherry pick, most of the polls still show Moore ahead. And yeah, there are good people in Alabama. Which is why Moore won't win with 100% of the vote. But he'll still win.

[Podgy the Bear]

I really don't think Moore can hold out much longer.  This afternoon's account by Beverly Nelson and the reports of his activities at the Gadsden Mall will be too much for his supporters to stay on board.

I'm not sure if Doug Jones will win next month.  But however it turns out, Moore is not going to serve in the Senate.

[Santander]

The question of "why now?" has a simple answer. That answer is that with the downfall of people like Harvey Weinstein and Louis CK and Kevin Spacey, women now feel empowered to speak the truth about people who sexually assaulted them. This is new in our culture.

I mean more about what exactly the sheriff and other powerful county officials were doing sitting on their ass knowing Moore was up to this kind of behavior.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AL.com: Gadsden locals say Moore's predatory behavior at mall, restaurants not a secret

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Secondary lesson from all this: whoever was doing opposition research for Mo Brooks and Luther Strange needs to be fired at once.

Moore support for Moore from the Alabungan natives:

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These people don't want proof, they want an excuse to vote for a pedophile rather than a god-forsaken Democrat.  them.

[IceSpear]

I really don't think Moore can hold out much longer.  This afternoon's account by Beverly Nelson and the reports of his activities at the Gadsden Mall will be too much for his supporters to stay on board.

I'm not sure if Doug Jones will win next month.  But however it turns out, Moore is not going to serve in the Senate.

That much is true. He's going to get expelled, then the GOP gets Luther Strange back for another year (at least.)

[DrScholl]

If he wins, he will not be expelled. Having a full caucus is what Republicans want.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McConnell has enough sense to know that keeping Moore in the senate and not expelling him would put them in an even worse situation than they currently are for 2018. They know the allegations against Trump, this only enhances the "Grand Old Pedophiles" rhetoric.

[IceSpear]

If he wins, he will not be expelled. Having a full caucus is what Republicans want.

They still would. He gets expelled, then Ivey appoints Strange again (or maybe Sessions.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If he wins, he will not be expelled. Having a full caucus is what Republicans want.

They still would. He gets expelled, then Ivey appoints Strange again (or maybe Sessions.)

My guess is Roby would get appointed. Ivey would probably look at Strange's primary defeat as the will of Alabamans and would appoint someone else. She's the less awful of the three but her part in the Benghazi witch hunt really soured my opinion of her.

[DrScholl]

If he wins, he will not be expelled. Having a full caucus is what Republicans want.

They still would. He gets expelled, then Ivey appoints Strange again (or maybe Sessions.)

It's a lot less complicated to keep Moore. They won't expel him.