Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Fudotei]

Moore's pretty popular in Alabama, as far as I've seen. Moreso than Strange or Brooks. It's not inconceivable he could do better than Strange will, it's not like he needs money (like 95% name recognition for being involved in Alabama politics for a decade and a half).

[Fudotei]

Primary tomorrow. I'm estimating this as Likely R with a victory for Roy Moore. Anyone else have final predictions?

[Fudotei]

Palin endorses Moore.

I want Palin to be relevant, dammit. She had a good thing going for a brief moment in history. In another world she'd run the Interior department.

But surprising in itself. Palin represents (represented?) a wing of the GOP that had a sizeable portion of power. Palin's talk is Tea Party talk. If she's willing to go for Moore (who has really abnormal views on the Constitution) he's becoming a senator.

[Fudotei]

This is an interesting election that's starting to show the fracture lines in the post-2016 GOP.

On the actual, identitarian, hard right: People like Palin, Bannon, local Alabama politicians, emphasis on local. The kind of leaders who probably voted for George Wallace III. Moore has a strong backing from the Alabama religious community - no surprise there.

Strange is being backed by the money. Mitch McConnell, Trump's (halfhearted, by most rumors and common sense) endorsement, Richard Shelby.. but also orgs like the NRA and Right to Life. Those are dedicated power structures with decades of experience and their sticking by Strange should be no surprise.

The trick: short of money, the latter group doesn't seem to be pulling lots of popularity. Trump's personally on that hard right (which is the natural ending point for libertarians) but his position and diplomacy with Congress requires working with established interests like McConnell. Elect an ideologue who's also hard right and the entire GOP machine will gum up.

Strange might be making a comeback but it's too hard to tell at the moment.

[Fudotei]

Outrage from Pink News & half the Democrats on Atlas, not sure if it'll push back Moore in the race. Strange has a lot of money still in but there's not a whole lot of room that Strange could put himself in if he tries to put himself as the 'LGBT-friendly Republican'.

After all, Strange filed an anti-gay marriage amicus curiae brief in 2015.

http://www.washingtonblade.com/2015/02/03/alabama-calls-supreme-court-block-sex-marriage/

[Fudotei]

Luther Strange won 54-45 in the 2006 primary against George Wallace Jr (who has stronger white nationalist ties than Roy Moore has 'executegate' ties) -- when he was more popular and when turnout for him was up. He beat Wallace in the initial primary 48-33 and he's lost this election 38-33. So who knows? Maybe he is doomed.

[Fudotei]

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I mean, he ain't wrong.

[Fudotei]

So we all agree that Roy Moore's imminent election to the Senate hurts any conceivable remaining chances of repealing Obamacare, yeah?

Oh, of course. That ship sailed. Moore won't vote for Graham-Cassidy.

What's concerning is that Moore is as resilient to McConnell's antics as Rand is, but he's much less mainstream ideologically, so it's not hard to see Moore as the first senator representing a national conservatism/Dominionism that works outside of the mainstream GOP consensus. McConnell has very little power over Rand and Moore, allowing those two to develop their own base and pseudo-party.

In other words, Moore is the first step to Bannon's caucus in the Senate (Marsha Blackburn and Chris McDaniel will probably be joining him)

[Fudotei]

Neocon does something wrong, more at 11

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The Media Corporation doesn't exist. Differences in coverage are due to the anchors, the partisan lean of the news org itself, and the corporate nature of the news companies. If we're going to say Fox never insults poor whites in the South, well, yeah

[Fudotei]

The type of voter who is turning out for a Republican in an Alabama special election probably supports the Dred Scott ruling anyway.

[citation needed]

Here ya' go.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.122.4810&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Analysis: approximately half, or even a slight majority, of white Alabama voters in 2000 opposed a symbolic referendum on removing an anti-miscegenation clause from the state constitution.

Based on national trends, that number has likely declined by 20 points or more since 2000.

Even that's a nationwide poll -- less than half of the country personally supported it miscegenation (regardless of legal approval) by 1995. Hard to overstate how rapidly the changing demographics of the country broke down the social conservative opinion in the last 20 years.

[Fudotei]

Trump himself is a unique blend of issues (illegal immigration, anti-elitism, relatively political independence) that I don't think will be easily replicated by a local candidate or represented by "Trumpism".

Moore will probably end up winning here. No more polls since the 10+ Moore leads show there's probably not much commotion for Jones.

[Fudotei]

Lean/Likely D which should make for some very interesting results (I'm of the opinion that the 2018 gubernatorial race in Alabama might be fairly competitive though is Likely R) for the state overall.

Here's the problem: this is probably the single worst thing that could happen to Moore, given that he's basically riding Alabama's evangelical Protestant base. Independents lean Jones, as do non-evangelicals overall.  (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/9-key-questions-about-roy-moore-and-the-alabama-senate-race/)

Moore needs the evangelical base to say "this is bad but probably either untrue or not a big deal" - what will probably end up being called child molestation.

Moore becomes so crucially unacceptable because it becomes clear that image is a complete facade, an electoral play for votes instead of genuine conviction or belief in Scripture. "A man with his heart in God," they'll say, "wouldn't have his hands in a 14 year old."

Straw that breaks the camel's back? Not exactly, but it's such a targeted blow to the base. The option of "Jones will be another Dem stooge" doesn't work as well either, considering Jones is headed to Schumer's Democratic Caucus (few have an opinion on him) rather than Pelosi's House. That means that Moore has to fight an entire election on abortion, which he can do but will not help him among the independent base. No one wants "Abortion is baby slaughter" blasted across their FM stations and it doesn't convince people.

I'd wait for data before making a prediction but Moore has shown himself to not only be a deeply controversial, offensive, and unprofessional politician - he's also a perennial liar and child molester who has covered up an immoral sin for electoral gain.

The transformation of Moore from "Dominionist who wants to blow up the GOP caucus" (be cautious, but throw a wrench into the Senate to make it work less) into "lying election-hunter who molested a middle schooler" (unacceptable) should, if Jones makes that line work, shut down Bannon's rebellion.

The "revolution" of Duginists, child molesters, and Army-privatizers? Good luck with that.

[Fudotei]

While the allegations do not allege that Moore outright committed rape, and indeed went along with as consensual you can be with someone who has barely hit puberty, that does not negate the fact that Roy Moore is - in all probability, given there's no reason to lie and a poor half-baked excuse by the Moore campaign - a sexual predator who deserves to be shot more than he deserves to be a sitting U.S. Senator.

[Fudotei]

Now, of course, emphasis on "Lean/Likely D" in my first prediction.

Bentley stepped down when he acknowledged the harassment claims were true, and without further probing by WaPo or someone else, a majority of the public believes these stories aren't true. (See the Sabato poll).

If you're Moore, and this isn't true, you can still win by deny, deny, deny. I believe it's probably true. But that doesn't mean the Alabama public has to. If he confirms he stripped down a 14 year old, that's something that will sink his campaign, but it isn't as bad as it could have been. He did stop, and he's now denying the story.

Wait for the data to see how people believe it. Maybe Fox hasn't been covering the story at all.