Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Brittain33]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

This logic would have doomed Scott Brown in 2010. He won because a ridiculous number of Dems stayed home while he romped among Indies.

Not saying I'd bet against Moore, but that route exists. Recall that Dems won MS-1, AL-2, and AL-5 in living memory amid terrible conditions for Republicans.

[Brittain33]

Just like Trump feels like a throwback to the '80s, this guy sure epitomizes a certain strand of Republican politics that was popular in the '90s.

[Brittain33]

That gosh darn Roy Moore says so many interesting things, I had to merge four threads into the mega thread which had fallen off the front page. Please use this thread.

[Brittain33]

Classic history book

[Brittain33]

I can't find a picture of James Comey and Luther Strange together.

[Brittain33]

The democrats should do what they did with SC-5 here - sneak Jones some money here and there, but don't make a serious national party effort. The problem with GA-6 was that the Dems spent too much and ended up generating overall turnout similar to that of a regularly scheduled election, which does not currently work to their advantage in normally republican seats.

I agree. Maybe a late visit from Obama to Birmingham could do some good.

Dems are trapped, anything they do to increase turnout also triggers higher turnout among Republicans. It's like SC-5. Keep below the radar and hope organically and through Jones' campaign enough a Dems show up to make the race close. It's still really, really hard to imagine Jones winning unless there's a Republican civil war.

[Brittain33]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election. 

How would they do that?

[Brittain33]

1) Demonstrate how McConnell is corrupt and incompetent.  I won't dispute the claims if you articulate how.

He's not particularly corrupt by Republican standards, but in 2017 he's amply demonstrated his incompetence in actually passing legislation or doing anything constructive, as opposed to his deep strategic and tactical competence in obstructing a Democratic majority or President from accomplishing anything. Look at the budget process, health care repeal, and so far what little he's contributed to moving forward tax "reform."

[Brittain33]

[Brittain33]

Libertarian Ron Bishop is running as a write-in candidate. Could he be a potential spoiler by siphoning a small number of votes from Moore?

More likely to hurt Jones by splitting the anti-Moore vote that Jones would need to sop up to have any hope of winning. He'd be like Gary Johnson to Hillary.

[Brittain33]

Can we at least make the title punnier?

I'll try.

[Brittain33]

The type of voter who is turning out for a Republican in an Alabama special election probably supports the Dred Scott ruling anyway.

[citation needed]

Here ya' go.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.122.4810&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Analysis: approximately half, or even a slight majority, of white Alabama voters in 2000 opposed a symbolic referendum on removing an anti-miscegenation clause from the state constitution.

Based on national trends, that number has likely declined by 20 points or more since 2000.

[Brittain33]

Wow, allegations of Moore having relations with teenage girls decades ago when he was in his 30s are about to come out. He went to Breitbart to pre-spin.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/11/09/after-endorsing-democrat-teenagers-judge-fires-back-denial/

[Brittain33]

Moore down 25c on Predictit but still favored to win.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3299/Who-will-win-the-2017-US-Senate-special-election-in-Alabama

[Brittain33]

A write-in campaign of another republican here would mean a Democratic victory here if they votes aren't split in a lopsided manner. The Alabama electorate is just too inelastic.

Alabama Republican are also very partisan this is different from Louisiana in 2015.

Are they really that much more partisan than Louisiana Republicans?

Louisiana has a recent history of electing Democrats before Edwards Alabama does not.

I think Dems winning AL-2 and holding AL-5 during the last Dem wave count for something.

[Brittain33]

It's a special election. Staying home is definitely an option for Republicans who won't vote for Jones.

[Brittain33]

I think people are taking the Access Hollywood comparison too far.

Doug Jones is basically Generic D. Many Republicans in Alabama may despise Generic D, but it's a larger universe of Alabamans who absolutely despise Hillary Clinton going back 20+ years. You are not going to see as many people overcoming their revulsion and voting Moore to "stop Jones" as they did with Trump to "stop Clinton."

Secondly, we've heard from a lot of Republican men in these quotes about why molesting a 14-year-old is ok. It's plausible that white Republican women in Alabama are going to respond very differently than men, if quietly so.

Third, it's a special election in December so staying home is a realistic option for many who would never miss a Presidential election.

[Brittain33]

Stop comparing a tape of Donald Trump saying something that he apologized for with accusations from multiple women that Roy Moore pursued sexual relations with a girl at fourteen. There's not a comparison. Just because two things are bad does not mean each is equally bad. One of these is clearly worse

On the Access Hollywood tape, Trump bragged about assaulting women--forcing kisses on them and "grabbing their pussy"--and 16 women have come forward to claim he assualted them sexually.

[Brittain33]

The problem with moving the election out is there is no guarantee Moore drops out. He could still run in the later election and the responses from county chairmen indicate they are not willing to cross him.

[Brittain33]

The problem with moving the election out is there is no guarantee Moore drops out. He could still run in the later election and the responses from county chairmen indicate they are not willing to cross him.

I think that is like problem number 97 on the list of problems with that idea. The first problem being moving an election because your candidate is losing is the kind of thing a country like Myanmar would do. And there's no way they would move the election if the democrat was the one with the problems.

Haha, I don't even think they care. I'm thinking only about R self-interest.

[Brittain33]

It really is remarkable that just about every elected official not in Alabama is taking these allegations is true. It says a lot about the rumors that must have been circulating.