Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

lulz

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Trump did what for Strange, a couple of tweets and a robocall? 

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Trump actually decides to sit back and let Moore win the runoff, that only strengthens the case for his impeachment.

That's silly.  What's impeachable about it?  Moore is certainly a terrible choice for Senator, but if the people of Alabama vote for him, then he's lawfully entitled to the seat. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are there any conservative third party candidates running?

I don't think so.  It would be hard to get much more conservative than Moore and Strange.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The problem for Moore is that while amping up the alt-right, neo-nazi, ultra-conservative sector might get him a narrow runoff victory, it also gives plenty of ammunition to Jones for the general. Jones meanwhile has no clear gaffes yet and doesn't have significant baggage.

Jones also lacks a clear message besides just being the D candidate

"I'm not Roy Moore" has a lot going for it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strange has been doing better in the latest polls.

Yeah, I'm starting to think that Strange may pull this out.  I have a feeling that the undecideds will break in his favor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ugh. Well, goodbye Strange.

Maybe he can now become DOCTOR STRANGE instead of senator strange.?

He already is!  He has a J.D. (Juris Doctor) law degree, so he's technically entitled to use the title "Doctor" (although lawyers rarely do).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pence is also going to Alabama on Monday to campaign for Strange: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/18/mike-pence-luther-strange-campaign-alabama-242852

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pence is also going to Alabama on Monday to campaign for Strange: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/18/mike-pence-luther-strange-campaign-alabama-242852

The fact Trump, Pence, and McConnell want Strange to win only makes me want Moore to win

Moore is objectively a worse person to have in the Senate, but there's some truth to this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just when you think it couldn't get any Moore Strange:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Pence is also going to Alabama on Monday to campaign for Strange: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/18/mike-pence-luther-strange-campaign-alabama-242852

The fact Trump, Pence, and McConnell want Strange to win only makes me want Moore to win

Why? The polling gives Strange a stronger chance of being Coakleyed.

Because I'm enjoying this Republican schadenfreude as total idiots descend upon their party: Kelli, Moore, Kid Rock...it's one bozo after another

You probably said that about Trump too

Yes and I'm fine with him taking winning over the party

This is getting off topic for the AL-Senate race discussion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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If Moore does win, this isn't going to make him less of a thorn in leadership's side.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When we have President-elect Doug Jones in November of 2020, then that'll be fun.

Earth 16,493.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I can't see Strange beating Moore in the primary.

General election prediction:

54% Roy Moore
42% Dong Jones

Who gets the other 4%?  I don't think there are any third-party candidates on the ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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LMAO

Part of me wants to see Moore win just to see what he does to the English language while in office.

[GeorgiaModerate]

He already is the tallest Senator.  Did Trump forget that Strange is already in the Senate?

(Trivia: Tom McMillen, who served in the House, was even taller, and is one of 3 former pro basketball players to serve in Congress.  Can you name the other two without looking it up?)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bill Bradley was one.

Bradley is of course correct.  The other one was Morris (Mo) Udall, the long-time Arizona Representative and contender for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 1976.  He was a star player for the University of Arizona and played a year of pro ball in the 1940's (even though he had only one eye).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some useful benchmarks for tomorrow:

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Targets for Strange win in #ALSen

Jefferson 60.3%
Mobile 49.9%
Madison 44.1%
Montgomery 48.1%
Shelby 56.1%
Tuscaloosa 53.6%
Baldwin 49.1%

Targets for Moore win in #ALSen

Jefferson 39.4%
Mobile 47.3%
Madison 30.1%
Montgomery 44.8%
Shelby 40.9%
Tuscaloosa 51.6%
Baldwin 40.4%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/912347642620993536

This does not compute.  Except for Tuscaloosa, none of those are mutually incompatible.  For example, in Baldwin it would be very possible for both Strange and Moore to exceed their listed benchmarks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah those benchmarks make no sense in a 2 candidate election.

Maybe they're left over from the first round?

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election.  If he wins in December, he'll likely stay in the Senate and be a thorn in their side for years.  But if he loses the general, the seat goes D for probably only one year, and Jones would be replaced by a less crazy Republican than Moore.  Short term loss, long term gain for the GOP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Castro, was there early voting for this runoff primary?

Alabama doesn't have "no excuse" early voting.  A voter can cast an absentee ballot if one of the following is true:

You will be absent from the county on Election Day

You are ill or have a physical disability that prevents a trip to the polling place

You are a registered Alabama voter who is temporarily living outside the county (such as a member of the armed forces, a voter employed outside of the United States, a college student, or a spouse or child of such a person)

You are an appointed election officer or poll watcher at a polling place other than your regular polling place

You work a required shift – 10 hours or more – that coincides with polling hours

Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election. 

How would they do that?

The NRSC, SLF, etc. could refuse to run ads promoting his candidacy, refuse to hold fundraisers for his candidacy, etc. They could also release a statement outright saying that Moore does not deserve election to the senate, with or without an explicit endorsement of Jones. McConnell could also release a statement saying Moore won't get his preferred committee assignments should he be elected.

Better question, Why would they do that?

In the original post, I suggested that it might be in order to replace Jones with a saner Republican at the next general election for this seat (which I mistakenly thought would be in 2018, not 2020 -- thanks for correcting that, Wulfric) rather than having Moore as a thorn in their sides for years.  I agree this is quite unlikely, and even more so with the 2020 vs 2018 correction.  But wild speculation is usually in fashion here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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I mean, he ain't wrong.

Southern populism and conservatism were never, ever meant to be on the same side.  Glad you guys are finally realizing it.

I HATE that Steve Bannon is supporting from Roy Moore because it detracts from Moore's message and makes people equate him with Bannonist factions.

-Moore's base is deeply religious, pro-life, very conservative on issues of family, marriage, and sexuality, and generally votes on Christian conservative values

-Bannon's base is largely irreligious, many pro-abortion for eugenic reasons, indifferent to liberal on issues of marriage and sexuality, and generally vote on restricting trade and stopping immiration.

We Moore Republicans are not the Bannon Republicans, and I wish people would stop making that false comparison!

There's an old saying that you're known by the company you keep.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Returning to the topic at hand (you know, the actual Alabama Senate race):

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