2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also story missed from July 3rd Daylin Leach is in for PA-07 https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2017/07/06/daylin-leach-congressman-pat-meehan-election.html

Woohoo! Totally endorsed! I rate this as lean R though, and I think Meehan will win about 55-45.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also story missed from July 3rd Daylin Leach is in for PA-07 https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2017/07/06/daylin-leach-congressman-pat-meehan-election.html

Woohoo! Totally endorsed! I rate this as lean R though, and I think Meehan will win about 55-45.

I disagree I think Meehan is in trouble Trump just looms large over the district and it's possible that his anti-AHCA vote ends up just pissing rep loyalists off over gaining crossover votes like 2010

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Definately a possibility, hence I called this lean, not likely like most other pollsters thus far.

[PragmaticPopulist]

CO-05: 2016 Colorado Senate GOP nominee Darryl Glenn is running in the primary against incumbent Doug Lamborn.

The tea party isn't going down without a fight. I wouldn't underestimate Glenn considering he came within six points of defeating Michael Bennett. Glenn also seems like a good fit for this district; Colorado Spring is known for two things: Military Service and Evangelicalism.

[MT Treasurer]

CO-05: 2016 Colorado Senate GOP nominee Darryl Glenn is running in the primary against incumbent Doug Lamborn.

The tea party isn't going down without a fight. I wouldn't underestimate Glenn considering he came within six points of defeating Michael Bennett. Glenn also seems like a good fit for this district; Colorado Spring is known for two things: Military Service and Evangelicalism.

I like him, but he probably can't beat Lamborn, right? Owen Hill is also running against him in the primary.

[Heisenberg]

CO-05: 2016 Colorado Senate GOP nominee Darryl Glenn is running in the primary against incumbent Doug Lamborn.

The tea party isn't going down without a fight. I wouldn't underestimate Glenn considering he came within six points of defeating Michael Bennett. Glenn also seems like a good fit for this district; Colorado Spring is known for two things: Military Service and Evangelicalism.

I like him, but he probably can't beat Lamborn, right?

Well, Glenn is a USAF veteran, which helps given that the Air Force Academy is in that district. Lamborn (not a veteran) seems to receive a primary challenger every two years (usually from a veteran), but he's always won. Glenn seems to be far more credible than anyone else, though. Other than the lack of military service, is there anything else in particular that the base doesn't like about Lamborn? I never understood his unpopularity.

[GeorgiaModerate]

State Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D) is reportedly eyeing a run in VA-02 versus Rep. Scott Taylor (R).  By 2016 presidential margin, this is the 30th-most D House seat held by an R.  Source: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/883353944696737792

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not sure this is right thread for this (mods feel free to move it elsewhere), but Cook Political has shifted ratings on 10 House races, all toward the Democrats:

CA-24 Carbajal   Lean D to Likely D
FL-18 Mast   Solid R to Likely R
IL-10 Schneider   Likely D to Solid D
IL-12 Bost   Likely R to Lean R
IL-17 Bustos   Likely D to Solid D
NY-19 Faso   Lean R to Toss Up
NC-09 Pittenger   Solid R to Likely R
NC-13 Budd   Solid R to Likely R
PA-06 Costello   Likely R to Lean R
VA-02 Taylor   Solid R to Likely R

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10412

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D) is reportedly eyeing a run in VA-02 versus Rep. Scott Taylor (R).  By 2016 presidential margin, this is the 30th-most D House seat held by an R.  Source: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/883353944696737792

Glorious news!

[Hindsight was 2020]

State Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D) is reportedly eyeing a run in VA-02 versus Rep. Scott Taylor (R).  By 2016 presidential margin, this is the 30th-most D House seat held by an R.  Source: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/883353944696737792

Niceeeeeeee

[henster]

State Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D) is reportedly eyeing a run in VA-02 versus Rep. Scott Taylor (R).  By 2016 presidential margin, this is the 30th-most D House seat held by an R.  Source: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/883353944696737792

The only way former Navy SEAL Scott Taylor is being defeated is by running a vet against him, there is already a former Air Force and Navy vet running right now. Rigell was a former Marine and Nye the last Dem rep worked overseas in Iraq for the State Dept.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

From what I'm hearing a couple high profile Texas dems are waiting on the new court ordered redistricting maps before running

[Virginiá]

From what I'm hearing a couple high profile Texas dems are waiting on the new court ordered redistricting maps before running

The trial to see if the 2013 interim maps need to be redrawn is about to start on Monday (10th), and we should probably find out exactly what is going to happen sometime in the next couple months, or perhaps much sooner. Here is a pretty detailed Q/A about it (article is new):

https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/texas-redistricting-back-court

As I understand it, not only could we see a more Democratic-leaning 23rd district, but they might have to draw upwards of 2 - 3 more Hispanic minority opportunity districts, which could really help Democrats out in 2018.

And as a cherry on top, there is a chance Texas could find itself bailed back into requiring preclearance for district maps and changes to election laws, on account of all their racially discriminatory laws/maps passed over the past 7 years.

Here's a doozy from it:

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[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

[Hindsight was 2020]

From what I'm hearing a couple high profile Texas dems are waiting on the new court ordered redistricting maps before running

The trial to see if the 2013 interim maps need to be redrawn is about to start on Monday (10th), and we should probably find out exactly what is going to happen sometime in the next couple months, or perhaps much sooner. Here is a pretty detailed Q/A about it (article is new):

https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/texas-redistricting-back-court

As I understand it, not only could we see a more Democratic-leaning 23rd district, but they might have to draw upwards of 2 - 3 more Hispanic minority opportunity districts, which could really help Democrats out in 2018.

And as a cherry on top, there is a chance Texas could find itself bailed back into requiring preclearance for district maps and changes to election laws, on account of all their racially discriminatory laws/maps passed over the past 7 years.

It's rumored one of the biggest losers is going to be Blake Farenthold as he has no money no money in his coffers and Soloman Ortiz jr (who is the son of the man who held this seat for like 30 years before Blake beat him) is likely to run

[Kamala]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

We could do much worse than Gallego tbh.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

Agreed.

[Cactus Jack]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

This. The Democrats desperately need to come around to the fact that a lack of fresh faces is why their presidential bench is so embarrassingly weak at this point. It's also why the "career politician" attacks that newcoming Republicans make against them in swing states and swing districts never fail to stick.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

This. The Democrats desperately need to come around to the fact that a lack of fresh faces is why their presidential bench is so embarrassingly weak at this point. It's also why the "career politician" attacks that newcoming Republicans make against them in swing states and swing districts never fail to stick.

We will likely have additional candidates in that district, but again, Gallego is a retread, but he's also a very good fit for the district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

This. The Democrats desperately need to come around to the fact that a lack of fresh faces is why their presidential bench is so embarrassingly weak at this point. It's also why the "career politician" attacks that newcoming Republicans make against them in swing states and swing districts never fail to stick.

We will likely have additional candidates in that district, but again, Gallego is a retread, but he's also a very good fit for the district.

I used to consider Carlos Uresti a great pick until he got himself in a crapload of trouble. Then I thought Tomas Uresti, his brother would be a good pick, but then I realized that it cannot be good since they are brothers with the same last name. Then I thought Nevarez could be good, but then he got in trouble with Rinaldi. Now I think the good choices are Tracy King, Rick Galindo, and a few others.

[Virginiá]

We will likely have additional candidates in that district, but again, Gallego is a retread, but he's also a very good fit for the district.

Personally I wouldn't mind Gallego running again if the 23rd gets redrawn before the 2018 elections, which would almost surely make it more Democratic, but if it doesn't, I'd rather they go with someone else. He has already lost twice in a row now (I would note his 2016 percentage was actually a smidge lower than 2014 as well). He came close, but we absolutely need this district, and if there is someone better I'd rather they give it a go.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also, Rudy Salas is apparently going to be announcing for CA-21 soon.

+1 dem

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^Poncho Nevarez is a name that often pops up, but I think he's running for reelection to the Texas House.

Also, Rudy Salas is apparently going to be announcing for CA-21 soon.

Poncho Nevarez really screwed up when he confronted Rinaldi. As for Rudy Salas, that's very good news!