2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Yank2133]

A bit of an outlier, but the GOP is ****ed in 2018.

[Brittain33]

Unless there is a complete civil war, Republicans will come home and close that gap some.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, the Republicans are royally screwed in 2018. Trump's cooperation with the democrats makes it worse for them too. People will vote for them because it's the only way to get things done.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Amusing:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Virginiá]

Do you guys think this thread should stay stickied?  It's worth having a megathread for generic polls but I'm not so sure anymore if it needs to stay at the top, or perhaps it could be re-stickied closer to election time next year.

?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Personally I don't think it needs to be stickied until sometime next year, but it won't bother me if it remains.

[heatcharger]

Do you guys think this thread should stay stickied?  It's worth having a megathread for generic polls but I'm not so sure anymore if it needs to stay at the top, or perhaps it could be re-stickied closer to election time next year.

?

If you're looking to clean up the sticky section, I think a good idea might be to sticky a catch-all thread that simply acts as a host to threads about 2018 as a whole. That includes this GCB thread, the fundraising thread, the recruitment thread, etc. The special election threads should also only be stickied when there is an actual special election in the near future. It's your call though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Amusing:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is actually a big deal as Hanna had been considering a third-party bid before Brindisi got in which would've liked resulted in Tenney's re-election.

[publicunofficial]

Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11

Easily our best possible recruit; this race now goes straight to toss-up (and could well end up tilt-D, depending on who the Republicans nominate).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have to say I am very skeptical of the CNN poll. It seems to have overestimated democrats from 2006-2014 (2008 and 2016 wasn't that off). While the republicans are in a poor position, I doubt they're down by anywhere close to 16. According to this poll, republicans were down by 15 in nov 2006, and then ended up only losing by 8. Granted, a +8 win in 2018 makes it likely that the democrats take back the house, but it's nowhere near a landslide like the CNN polls suggest.

[IceSpear]

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. At this point in 2013 Dems were crushing it in the generic ballot polls. 2 months before the 2008 election McCain was ahead. 2 weeks before the 2016 election Hillary was a shoo in. A lot can change in a year.

[McGovernForPrez]

Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11

Whoo!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11

Nice!

[ajc0918]

Dems get top candidate in FL-16 to challenge Vern Buchanan. While this is a 54-43 Trump and 54-45 Romney district, it seems like a good candidate who has a high profile and could potentially self fund.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20171018/buchanan-draws-prominent-democratic-opponent

[Cactus Jack]

Dems get top candidate in FL-16 to challenge Vern Buchanan. While this is a 54-43 Trump and 54-45 Romney district, it seems like a good candidate who has a high profile and could potentially self fund.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20171018/buchanan-draws-prominent-democratic-opponent

2018 is not a year where we can afford to skimp on wave insurance. In an especially catastrophic environment, Buchanan may find himself with good reason to Fearo the Shapiro.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mike Pence's brother is gearing up to take his the seat Messer is vacating. (Pence's old seat.)

[publicunofficial]

Ben McAdams is officially in for UT-04

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ben McAdams is officially in for UT-04

Nice!

[Young Conservative]

Mike Pence's brother is gearing up to take his the seat Messer is vacating. (Pence's old seat.)

Astounding news!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/10/upstate_ny_man_launches_americas_most_radical_congressional_campaign.html

Claudia Tenney recieves a primary challenger running to her left in economics and her right on immigration. Probably doesn't have a chance but kinda interesting.

Nicholas Wan: MEGAPOPULIST

Frankly, I'd like to see him win. He'd be useful on healthcare and his immigration policy would never happen.

Personally I think these are the Republican candidates were going to start seeing more of in upstate New York and upper New England. It'll be interesting to see if they do any better or worse than generic R, considering there was almost no mention of social issues other than immigration.

I agree with this assessment.

[Virginiá]

Ok, let's keep all recruitment, fundraising and generic ballot posts in this thread. I know generic ballot seems out of place, but that thread already wasn't getting too much traffic, so it shouldn't be much of an impact here. Since there have been some complaints about the number of stickies, I thought I would do something about it.

However if there is a high-profile recruitment or something that normally would belong here but seems interesting enough to get its own thread, feel free.

[Holmes]

Brandon Presley is teasing a Senate run? In favor of cutting taxes, pro-life, well liked, regularly holds town hall meetings across northern Mississippi, related to Elvis... with a divisive Republican primary coming up, who knows?

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/921000618373865472

[Holmes]

Brandon Presley is teasing a Senate run? In favor of cutting taxes, pro-life, well liked, regularly holds town hall meetings across northern Mississippi, related to Elvis... with a divisive Republican primary coming up, who knows?

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/921000618373865472

Only if McDaniel is the nominee or another up

Yeah. Or maybe it'd be best to wait until 2020 when it's either Cochran or open seat.

[The Other Castro]

3Q fundraising numbers for the Republicans in FL-27:

Bruno Barreiro - $42K
Raquel Regalado - $15K
Bettina Rodriguez Aguilera (potential alien abductee) - $5K

Meanwhile, the Democrats' numbers for the 3Q are:

Matt Haggman - $510K
Mary Barzee Flores - $303K
José Javier Rodríguez - $272K
David Richardson - $264K
Ken Russell - $222K
Kristen Rosen Gonzalez - $49K

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/20/1708539/-Republican-candidates-for-Ros-Lehtinen-s-seat-are-fundraising-like-they-ve-given-up