2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[BuckeyeNut]

Hottinger's out. Won't run for Tiberi's seat.

IIRC, Hottinger is very conservative. So - relatively good news.

Hottinger wouldn't have been a good candidate for the Republicans, anyway.

[swf541]

According to his facebook statement Stewart Mills (MN-8 challenged Nolan in 14 and 16) is not running

[henster]

VA-GOV has me feeling down on Dems for 2018, the Gillespie campaign is a good preview of what you will see from candidates across the country. Linking Dems to whatever bogeyman group whether it be MS-13/Antifa and using wedge issues like statues or the pledge. These issues seem to enough to bring home dissatisfied Rs and a good chunk of Indies who disapprove of Trump.

[Heisenberg]

According to his facebook statement Stewart Mills (MN-8 challenged Nolan in 14 and 16) is not running

Good, Stauber is a much better candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

VA-GOV has me feeling down on Dems for 2018, the Gillespie campaign is a good preview of what you will see from candidates across the country. Linking Dems to whatever bogeyman group whether it be MS-13/Antifa and using wedge issues like statues or the pledge. These issues seem to enough to bring home dissatisfied Rs and a good chunk of Indies who disapprove of Trump.

If that were the case then Gillespie would be ahead.

[IceSpear]

VA-GOV has me feeling down on Dems for 2018, the Gillespie campaign is a good preview of what you will see from candidates across the country. Linking Dems to whatever bogeyman group whether it be MS-13/Antifa and using wedge issues like statues or the pledge. These issues seem to enough to bring home dissatisfied Rs and a good chunk of Indies who disapprove of Trump.

If that were the case then Gillespie would be ahead.

Trump lost Virginia. Even if Northam wins, which sadly isn't a given, if it's by less than Hillary that's a pretty disappointing showing for the Dems considering we're supposedly in the midst of a "Democratic wave" right now. Same for NJ, where it's looking like Dems will roughly match Hillary's margin despite the supposed "wave" and a host of other NJ-specific factors that should be putting the wind at our backs there.

[swf541]

VA-GOV has me feeling down on Dems for 2018, the Gillespie campaign is a good preview of what you will see from candidates across the country. Linking Dems to whatever bogeyman group whether it be MS-13/Antifa and using wedge issues like statues or the pledge. These issues seem to enough to bring home dissatisfied Rs and a good chunk of Indies who disapprove of Trump.

If that were the case then Gillespie would be ahead.

gillepsie isnt a generic r and is actually a competent canidate even if he is acting like utter filth
Trump lost Virginia. Even if Northam wins, which sadly isn't a given, if it's by less than Hillary that's a pretty disappointing showing for the Dems considering we're supposedly in the midst of a "Democratic wave" right now. Same for NJ, where it's looking like Dems will roughly match Hillary's margin despite the supposed "wave" and a host of other NJ-specific factors that should be putting the wind at our backs there.

[Maxwell]

Gillespie is very much generic R and that's the problem.

[Young Conservative]

Gillespie is very much generic R and that's the problem.

Northam is also very much a generic D.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

VA-GOV has me feeling down on Dems for 2018, the Gillespie campaign is a good preview of what you will see from candidates across the country. Linking Dems to whatever bogeyman group whether it be MS-13/Antifa and using wedge issues like statues or the pledge. These issues seem to enough to bring home dissatisfied Rs and a good chunk of Indies who disapprove of Trump.

If that were the case then Gillespie would be ahead.

Trump lost Virginia. Even if Northam wins, which sadly isn't a given, if it's by less than Hillary that's a pretty disappointing showing for the Dems considering we're supposedly in the midst of a "Democratic wave" right now. Same for NJ, where it's looking like Dems will roughly match Hillary's margin despite the supposed "wave" and a host of other NJ-specific factors that should be putting the wind at our backs there.

I mean you can't necessarily compare Governor races and Congressional Races. For example, I support Kim Guadagno for NJ Governor but I can't fathom supporting a Republican for the House / Senate right now.

[Classic Conservative]

VA-GOV has me feeling down on Dems for 2018, the Gillespie campaign is a good preview of what you will see from candidates across the country. Linking Dems to whatever bogeyman group whether it be MS-13/Antifa and using wedge issues like statues or the pledge. These issues seem to enough to bring home dissatisfied Rs and a good chunk of Indies who disapprove of Trump.

If that were the case then Gillespie would be ahead.

Trump lost Virginia. Even if Northam wins, which sadly isn't a given, if it's by less than Hillary that's a pretty disappointing showing for the Dems considering we're supposedly in the midst of a "Democratic wave" right now. Same for NJ, where it's looking like Dems will roughly match Hillary's margin despite the supposed "wave" and a host of other NJ-specific factors that should be putting the wind at our backs there.

I mean you can't necessarily compare Governor races and Congressional Races. For example, I support Kim Guadagno for NJ Governor but I can't fathom supporting a Republican for the House / Senate right now.

If that was the case then Handel would've lost, there's enthusiasm for the Democrats but it's in the wrong part of the nation.

[Virginiá]

If that was the case then Handel would've lost, there's enthusiasm for the Democrats but it's in the wrong part of the nation.

Err, are you sure? See, whenever I see GA-6 mentioned it always seems to be coupled with the idea that that district is very competitive right now despite being a deeply Republican district all the way up until 2016. It has been suggested a number of times before, and I think it's probably true that district may have swung as far to the left as it can under normal midterm/presidential turnout scenarios. Yes, it's very close to being a Clinton district, but that is after a massive swing away from Republicans. What Clinton / Ossoff got may be the absolute ceiling outside of low-key special elections with lopsided turnout. In that sense, all the money and attention showered on GA-6 may have worked against Ossoff by bringing out Republicans who may not have voted beforehand.

No one should be drawing too many conclusions based off of one gubernatorial election in a relatively competitive state one year before the 2018 midterm elections. A lot can change between now and then, and even in a wave environment, it's not that uncommon for the party on the losing end of said wave to win elections one might think they should be locked out of.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

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Tom Price won the district by over 20% in 2016. Then Handel lost by less than 4%. That's a pretty massive swing lol. The district was anti-Trump, not anti Republican (very wealthy and educated district, which tended to be a lot more anti-Trump than the usual Republican, although Trump is helping mobilize these people to vote democrat more).

[Gass3268]

[GeorgiaModerate]

I like that you can filter the data different ways (https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/06/National-Politics/Polling/question_19623.xml).  Among independents, it's 51-35 D.

[Maxwell]

Gillespie is very much generic R and that's the problem.

Northam is also very much a generic D.

well, no, generic D didn't endorse Bush for President in 2000 and 2004

[Kamala]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

[MAINEiac4434]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

I'm now 20% less straight than I used to be.

[Virginiá]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

I'm now 20% less straight than I used to be.

lmbo. God that guy is hot

[Kamala]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

I'm now 20% less straight than I used to be.

lmbo. God that guy is hot

It's not fair to the rest of the states. Tulsi AND Kaniela? Might be the most attractive set of congressmen ...ever?

Noem is very pretty too, but has horrible politics. But we've only got 1 Rep, so it's easier..

[Cactus Jack]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

I just became gayer.

[Dr. Arch]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

I just became gayer.

lool

[OneJ]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

If I could vote for him just on his looks, I would do it so he can give me some tips on improving my looks.

[Frodo]

And based upon the results in Virginia, we have the candidates, the enthusiasm, and turnout to make that margin felt.  

[Ebsy]

Yes, pretty obvious that we should prepare for a deluge of retirements, challengers entering races in all sorts of seats, and resources to flow into these districts at unprecedented rates.