2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/935716132174123008

Mike Turner a "decent bet" to retire.

OH-10 is R+4.

I mean, I'll defer to Ohio Dems here, but this seems like a decent prospect - a fairly urbanish district, I believe it trended towards Clinton (), Mike Turner had a fairly unique appeal here being the Mayor of Dayton for a while, very popular for a long time. I don't know the benches in this area well, I assume the Dems are gonna have a lot of no names.

We have some solid candidates who could run if this seat opens up and it’s a decent pickup possiblity if he retires.

[BuckeyeNut]

Whaley dropping out of the gubernatorial primary would be Ohio Dem's best bet, though it seems somewhat unlikely, as she seems drawn to executive offices more than legislative ones. That said, if Cordray gets in this week, as he is expected to do, it might provide further incentive. (Though she did previously indicate she wasn't afraid of Cordray.)

Fred Strahorn, the House Minority Leader, would be another good get. He's got the fundraising chops and he could probably activate black voters in Dayton other candidates just couldn't do as well.

Montgomery County Auditor Karl Keith would be another good get, he currently represents more of the district than either Strahorn or Whaley, and he's well known, having served in that office since 2000. Probably the least likely of the three to want it, however.

[The Other Castro]

Potentially big: “Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner reconsiders: She may challenge John Katko for Congress”

https://t.co/2K6pUcsfCp

[Holmes]

Potentially big: “Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner reconsiders: She may challenge John Katko for Congress”

Sounds like she's leaning towards running based on the quotes.

[The Other Castro]

^Can you edit your post with the shortened link in my post? My initial one was accidentally too long and it’s messing up the page.

[Cactus Jack]

Potentially big: “Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner reconsiders: She may challenge John Katko for Congress”

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/syracuse_mayor_stephanie_miner_reconsiders_running_for_congress.html

Sounds like she's leaning towards running based on the quotes.

I don't actually fancy the Dems' chances in NY-24 - Katko has proven to be a way better incumbent than anticipated and has thus far blanched both Democrats he's faced - but I'm glad they're still taking it seriously.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Potentially big: “Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner reconsiders: She may challenge John Katko for Congress”

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/syracuse_mayor_stephanie_miner_reconsiders_running_for_congress.html

Sounds like she's leaning towards running based on the quotes.

I don't actually fancy the Dems' chances in NY-24 - Katko has proven to be a way better incumbent than anticipated and has thus far blanched both Democrats he's faced - but I'm glad they're still taking it seriously.

Neither of whom were strong candidates

[Badger]

Whaley dropping out of the gubernatorial primary would be Ohio Dem's best bet, though it seems somewhat unlikely, as she seems drawn to executive offices more than legislative ones. That said, if Cordray gets in this week, as he is expected to do, it might provide further incentive. (Though she did previously indicate she wasn't afraid of Cordray.)

Fred Strahorn, the House Minority Leader, would be another good get. He's got the fundraising chops and he could probably activate black voters in Dayton other candidates just couldn't do as well.

Montgomery County Auditor Karl Keith would be another good get, he currently represents more of the district than either Strahorn or Whaley, and he's well known, having served in that office since 2000. Probably the least likely of the three to want it, however.

I'm not sure an African-American is the best candidate Democrats could field in this district, bluntly put. Whaley would definitely be better. I don't know about Keith, but few voters can name their county auditor.

Who would be the most likely GOP candidates here? A comeback by Steve Austria whom I believe still lives in the district? I imagine he'd be the strongest Republican candidate by far.

[BuckeyeNut]

Whaley dropping out of the gubernatorial primary would be Ohio Dem's best bet, though it seems somewhat unlikely, as she seems drawn to executive offices more than legislative ones. That said, if Cordray gets in this week, as he is expected to do, it might provide further incentive. (Though she did previously indicate she wasn't afraid of Cordray.)

Fred Strahorn, the House Minority Leader, would be another good get. He's got the fundraising chops and he could probably activate black voters in Dayton other candidates just couldn't do as well.

Montgomery County Auditor Karl Keith would be another good get, he currently represents more of the district than either Strahorn or Whaley, and he's well known, having served in that office since 2000. Probably the least likely of the three to want it, however.

I'm not sure an African-American is the best candidate Democrats could field in this district, bluntly put. Whaley would definitely be better. I don't know about Keith, but few voters can name their county auditor.

Who would be the most likely GOP candidates here? A comeback by Steve Austria whom I believe still lives in the district? I imagine he'd be the strongest Republican candidate by far.

Most people probably can't name their auditor, but Keith has been on the ballot for over a decade -- meaning he should be relatively well known -- and seems to be pretty popular with Montgomery County Democrats. Which isn't enough to win, but he would be a contender.

As for the GOP, you would know better than I, but my understanding is that Austria has remained fairly well involved in intra-GOP politics, so a comeback wouldn't be unheard of. That said, given the absolute failure of the establishment candidates in the race to replace Boehner, whatever Republican gets the nod to replace Turner could be a damn near unknown.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Whaley dropping out of the gubernatorial primary would be Ohio Dem's best bet, though it seems somewhat unlikely, as she seems drawn to executive offices more than legislative ones. That said, if Cordray gets in this week, as he is expected to do, it might provide further incentive. (Though she did previously indicate she wasn't afraid of Cordray.)

Fred Strahorn, the House Minority Leader, would be another good get. He's got the fundraising chops and he could probably activate black voters in Dayton other candidates just couldn't do as well.

Montgomery County Auditor Karl Keith would be another good get, he currently represents more of the district than either Strahorn or Whaley, and he's well known, having served in that office since 2000. Probably the least likely of the three to want it, however.

I'm not sure an African-American is the best candidate Democrats could field in this district, bluntly put. Whaley would definitely be better. I don't know about Keith, but few voters can name their county auditor.

Who would be the most likely GOP candidates here? A comeback by Steve Austria whom I believe still lives in the district? I imagine he'd be the strongest Republican candidate by far.

Strahorn is a strong enough candidate that I think he’d still be a good recruit, but I agree that Keith and Whaley would be stronger candidates.  We’ve got a decent bench here tbh.

[BuckeyeNut]

Cornell-educated farmer and former candidate for HD-68, John Russell, will be seeking to replace Pat Tiberi in the US House of Representatives.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cornell-educated farmer and former candidate for HD-68, John Russell, will be seeking to replace Pat Tiberi in the US House of Representatives.

Who?

[junior chįmp]

Not looking good for the GOP on the betting markets:

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not looking good for the GOP on the betting markets:

Predictit is a retarded joke. Can't believe the crap actually manages to wriggle it's way into legit arguments.

[junior chįmp]

Not looking good for the GOP on the betting markets:

Predictit is a retarded joke. Can't believe the crap actually manages to wriggle it's way into legit arguments.

Predictit aside....I could see an 80 seat turnover just based off of what happened in the VA HoD races

[IceSpear]

So Dems are going to win 80+ seats because it is trading at 20c, but Roy Moore trading at 80c means nothing? lol

[BuckeyeNut]

Cornell-educated farmer and former candidate for HD-68, John Russell, will be seeking to replace Pat Tiberi in the US House of Representatives.

Who?

Basically SomeDude. And yet, still probably the best candidate in the race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cornell-educated farmer and former candidate for HD-68, John Russell, will be seeking to replace Pat Tiberi in the US House of Representatives.

Who?

Basically SomeDude. And yet, still probably the best candidate in the race.

Eh, we have no shot here anyway.  As long as my next Congressman isn't Jordan or Mingo, I can probably live with whoever the Republicans put up.  The Delaware County Prosecutor might well be an improvement over Tiberi tbh, but IDK.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not looking good for the GOP on the betting markets:

As much as I wish that outcome were possible, we shouldn't be taking the opinions of PredictIt members too seriously. There are some really nutty people on that site with very one-sided opinions that obscure their perception of reality. One member on there, Yusky, an avid Trump-supporter, on the day of the Virginia Governor's race, claimed Gillespie would win by 6 points, that Loudon county would go to him by a comfortable margin and that Prince William was up for grabs. The people on there don't really know too much or analyze elections and trends as much as we do.

[junior chįmp]

So Dems are going to win 80+ seats because it is trading at 20c, but Roy Moore trading at 80c means nothing? lol

DecisiondeskHQ gave the VA HoD a 4% chance of flipping. The fact that it might end up 50-50 is an ominous sign. Personally, I think 2018 will be the early stages of a realignment with a bunch of older white male Republicans being thrown out (as was the case in VA).

[IceSpear]

So Dems are going to win 80+ seats because it is trading at 20c, but Roy Moore trading at 80c means nothing? lol

DecisiondeskHQ gave the VA HoD a 4% chance of flipping. The fact that it might end up 50-50 is an ominous sign. Personally, I think 2018 will be the early stages of a realignment with a bunch of older white male Republicans being thrown out (as was the case in VA).

There are definitely many signs 2018 could be a good year for the Democrats, I don't disagree with you there. I just think discussions about winning in Wyoming and Alabama go just a wee tad bit overboard.

[Bojack Horseman]

NARAL funding primary challenge ads against Dan Lipinski in Illinois. HALLELUJAH!!!!

https://letsdumpdan.com/

[Gass3268]

American Values Survey from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI)

Dem 44%
Rep 37%

Men:

Rep 43%
Dem 36%

Women:

Dem 51%
Rep 31%

[Virginiá]

This is among 18-29 year old Millennials only: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/harvard-millennials-now-biggest-voting-group-in-us-2-1-democratic/article/2642567

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Millennials back to 2008 numbers in terms of support for Democrats

[BuckeyeNut]

This is among 18-29 year old Millennials only: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/harvard-millennials-now-biggest-voting-group-in-us-2-1-democratic/article/2642567

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Millennials back to 2008 numbers in terms of support for Democrats

Conflating Trump disapproval with being pro-Democrat is a dangerous mistake.