2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why is Michael Hein not talking about running for 2018? Faso is vulnerable and he is popular

[Gass3268]

RIP Dold vs. Schneider

[Figueira]

I notice that there are a lot of Democrats running in CA-50 against Duncan Hunter. Anyone know why?

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Also, is anyone planning on running in CA-21 against Valadao? He should be a top target.

[KingSweden]

Why is Michael Hein not talking about running for 2018? Faso is vulnerable and he is popular

He'd be a great choice. Curious about that too

[Ebsy]

Hysterically high "Not sure" number for YouGOV.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I notice that there are a lot of Democrats running in CA-50 against Duncan Hunter. Anyone know why?

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Also, is anyone planning on running in CA-21 against Valadao? He should be a top target.

Duncan Hunter is being investigated by the DOJ, IIRC.

[Maxwell]

RIP Dold vs. Schneider

also RIP any chance Republicans have at this district, and yes, that includes Mark Kirk trying to win back his old district after his embarrassing 2016 Senate campaign.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I suppose they are basically doing this on a weekly basis now. 5/10/17 Yougov numbers:

Democrats - 40 (+2)
Republicans - 35 (+/-)
Not Sure - 16 (-1)
Other - 3 (+/-)

Crosstabs and such : http://tiny.cc/64f3ky page 110 / question #96

[Wiz in Wis]

Q-Poll (From May 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. )

Generic Ballot:

Democrats - 54
Republicans - 38
Undecided - 8

Wow.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456

[GeorgiaModerate]

Q-Poll (From May 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. )

Generic Ballot:

Democrats - 54
Republicans - 38
Undecided - 8

Wow.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456

Maybe it's an outlier, but...wow indeed.  If this is anywhere close, 2018 will be a bloodbath for the GOP.

[Brittain33]

I would be surprised if that gap holds. Republicans always rally at the end and you end up with a smaller gap.

[Virginiá]

I would be surprised if that gap holds. Republicans always rally at the end and you end up with a smaller gap.

Probably. Democrats tend to underperform their generic ballot numbers. However, even if that gap does shrink, it would still portend a blowout. Shave 6 points off and you're still at a 10% PV win, which could definitely flip the House. I'm not getting excited until I see many different polls showing similar results for more than just a blip in time. Unless this is the beginning of a sustained downward spiral, it remains something of an outlier.

[Holmes]

For what it's worth, and it might not be a lot, but the question is "what party do you want to win control of the House?", not "what party would you vote for?"

[ajc0918]

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

[Holmes]

No surprise that Blum is in serious danger.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

I think Poliquin will be safe but Blum is in serious trouble and I can see Upton going down over the AHCA

[Kamala]

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

I think Poliquin will be safe but Blum is in serious trouble and I can see Upton going down over the AHCA

I feel that if 2018 will be a significant wave, Poliquin could be taken down by a star recruit - Troy Jackson, perhaps?

[McGovernForPrez]

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

I was watching a video of protesting in Fred Upton's district. Obama won the district in 2012, so I wouldn't doubt it given a favorable national mood.

[Babeuf]

Q-Poll (From May 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. )

Generic Ballot:

Democrats - 54
Republicans - 38
Undecided - 8

Wow.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456

Along with what others said about the weird wording of the question, this was taken following the House's passage of the AHCA so that could explain it.

[Adam Griffin]

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https://youtu.be/-w7ENxNjO4E?t=3m13s

[Brittain33]

Terry McAuliffe's wife Dorothy will not be running for Congress.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/dorothy-mcauliffe-wife-of-virginia-governor-says-she-will-not-run-for-congress/2017/05/10/19f62b32-35a1-11e7-b412-62beef8121f7_story.html?utm_term=.06b223e4b4d7

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Hysterically high "Not sure" number for YouGOV.

Moderate Hero Wulfric types blaming both sides equally?

[smoltchanov]

Hysterically high "Not sure" number for YouGOV.

Moderate Hero Wulfric types blaming both sides equally?

Moderates usually blame both sides. Which deserve it. As an old saying goes: "plague on both your houses"....))))

[ajc0918]

Interesting article about FL-15. While this seat isn't on the competitive radar, the fact that it has multiple democratic candidates this early is promising. IIRC Dennis Ross ran unopposed in 2012 so even just having someone is better than Democrats have done in the past.

This seat swung heavily toward Trump (56-39) but Romney only won it 52-46. These are the types of seats that need to be challenged even if the prospect of winning is slim.

http://saintpetersblog.com/cd-15-hopeful-greg-pilkington-believes-2018-will-big-democrats-including/

[Wiz in Wis]

Dems have a good candidate in IA-01 in Dubuque State Rep Abby Finkenauer:

https://www.facebook.com/Abby4Congress/

1st term legislator but fits the "Obama" mold pretty well in a district he carried by 13 points in 2012.