2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Jeppe]

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/02/hurd-gets-first-democratic-challenger-2018/

Seems like an excellent recruit, a lot better than running Gallego again.

[Kamala]

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/02/hurd-gets-first-democratic-challenger-2018/

Seems like an excellent recruit, a lot better than running Gallego again.

Shades of a female Kander. I hope she does well!

[heatcharger]

Any bet on what Quinnipiac will show on GCB? I'll guess D+15 in the Senate and D+12 in the House.

Reminder that senate Democrats won the GCB in 2012 by 12 points.

+14 for both.

[Gass3268]

Any bet on what Quinnipiac will show on GCB? I'll guess D+15 in the Senate and D+12 in the House.

Reminder that senate Democrats won the GCB in 2012 by 12 points.

+14 for both.

Democratic Party net favorability -12
Republican Party net favorability -42

[publicunofficial]

By the end of this cycle I'm going to be confused as hell as to which female Democrat military veteran is running in which district.

[Oryxslayer]

By the end of this cycle I'm going to be confused as hell as to which female Democrat military veteran is running in which district.

Well, we were warned in April: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/veterans-house-democrats-recruiting-236845

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[Gone to Carolina]

1,000,000 views in 2 days is pretty good, and even now it's still trending at #18. I'm exciting to see how her and Ojeda fair in their respective districts next year.

[_]

Impressive intro for Dem challenger to Andy Barr in KY-06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk

She's got my endorsement.

[Dr. Arch]

Via quinnipiac, Trump's approval in upstate NY has fallen to 38%. Could play a big role on if Michael Hein and/or Svante Myrick join races

Haven't upstate NY and the Upper Midwest tracked eerily close together in the past? If this keeps up that is bad news in MI, MN and WI.

Yep, I was about to mention just that. I saw a former Trump supporter protesting down Washington street a week ago when Trump made the announcement about trans troops. His flag-decored signs read "Trump is a traitor."

[Virginiá]

So "Quinnijunk" is no longer a thing?

Their polls do seem overly friendly to Democrats, but I personally wouldn't call them junk. Not at all. Their large leads for Democrats in the generic poll are not that far off from select other polls according to 538 (link)

[windjammer]

So "Quinnijunk" is no longer a thing?

Well they are either to democrat friendly or too republican friendly lol

[The_Doctor]

The Democrats being ahead by 15 is a little too friendly but I can believe a Democratic spread of 8-12 points, which (at this point) is enough to flip the House. It would take considerable work by the GOP to get themselves back to a point where they win the House popular vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac asks a slightly different generic ballot question than most other pollsters.  Q asks which party the respondent would like to see in control of Congress; the others ask which party the respondent would vote for.  A voter might intend to vote for their incumbent because they like him/her but prefer to see the other party win overall control for various reasons, such as a check on the President.  IMO the Q version is less useful as a predictor than the standard generic ballot question.

[ethanforamerica]

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

[ethanforamerica]

rip NV Dems

[BuckeyeNut]

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.

[ethanforamerica]

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LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.
[/quote] eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

[ethanforamerica]

I recall back in May that Michael Hein said he would announce by the end of July if he runs aganist Faso. Anyone got updates on that?

. Based on trump approval ratings in NY, Teachout could kill him in a rematch

[BuckeyeNut]

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.

eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.

[Holmes]

She literally got shot in the brain and has difficulty stringing together thoughts and speaking. In another world where she was never shot or survived the shooting unscathed, maybe. But we don't live in that world.

[ethanforamerica]

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.

eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.

She's made MASSIVE progress since the shooting. She learned how to talk in a couple of years, I'm not saying she WILL be up for it, I'm saying let's see where she's at decision time.

[Ye We Can]

Bruh the woman got shot in the head. I'm happy she's made the progress she has but there are better options for Dems than her given the realities.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.

eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.

She's made MASSIVE progress since the shooting. She learned how to talk in a couple of years, I'm not saying she WILL be up for it, I'm saying let's see where she's at decision time.

Give it a break already people.

[BuckeyeNut]

In what is quickly becoming a crowded primary, former OSU football star Anthony Gonzalez is looking to run as a Republican in OH-16.

[Heisenberg]

IN-04 will be having a special election to replace Rokita

The seat will be open next year, but he isn't resigning.