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| | |-+  2018 Congressional Recruitment / Fundraising / Generic ballot Megathread
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Recruitment / Fundraising / Generic ballot Megathread  (Read 56073 times)
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« Reply #425 on: August 03, 2017, 08:29:50 pm »

So "Quinnijunk" is no longer a thing?

Their polls do seem overly friendly to Democrats, but I personally wouldn't call them junk. Not at all. Their large leads for Democrats in the generic poll are not that far off from select other polls according to 538 (link)
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« Reply #426 on: August 03, 2017, 08:34:53 pm »
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So "Quinnijunk" is no longer a thing?

Their polls do seem overly friendly to Democrats, but I personally wouldn't call them junk. Their large leads for Democrats in the generic poll are not that far off from select other polls according to 538 (link)

It's funny, because I remember them being relatively "Republican-friendly" in many states before 2016 (especially CO), hence why it was called "Quinnijunk" on here. They did change their methodology at some point in 2016, right?
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

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« Reply #427 on: August 03, 2017, 08:36:01 pm »
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So "Quinnijunk" is no longer a thing?
Well they are either to democrat friendly or too republican friendly lol
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« Reply #428 on: August 03, 2017, 09:06:18 pm »
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So "Quinnijunk" is no longer a thing?
Well they are either to democrat friendly or too republican friendly lol

Yeah, I remember their "Toomey +15" and "Strickland +12" polls back in 2015. Fun times.
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
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« Reply #429 on: August 04, 2017, 02:34:07 am »
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The Democrats being ahead by 15 is a little too friendly but I can believe a Democratic spread of 8-12 points, which (at this point) is enough to flip the House. It would take considerable work by the GOP to get themselves back to a point where they win the House popular vote.
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« Reply #430 on: August 04, 2017, 07:28:01 am »
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Quinnipiac asks a slightly different generic ballot question than most other pollsters.  Q asks which party the respondent would like to see in control of Congress; the others ask which party the respondent would vote for.  A voter might intend to vote for their incumbent because they like him/her but prefer to see the other party win overall control for various reasons, such as a check on the President.  IMO the Q version is less useful as a predictor than the standard generic ballot question.
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« Reply #431 on: August 06, 2017, 10:01:26 am »
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In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done
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My Endorsements:
-Ralph Northam for VA Gov.
-Biden for President 2020
-Beto O'Rourke for TX Sen. 2018
-Joe Kennedy III for MA Gov. 2018
-Mike Levin for CA-49 2018
-Bernie for Reelection 2018
-Zephyr Teachout for NY-19 2018
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« Reply #432 on: August 06, 2017, 10:11:28 am »
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rip NV Dems
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My Endorsements:
-Ralph Northam for VA Gov.
-Biden for President 2020
-Beto O'Rourke for TX Sen. 2018
-Joe Kennedy III for MA Gov. 2018
-Mike Levin for CA-49 2018
-Bernie for Reelection 2018
-Zephyr Teachout for NY-19 2018
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« Reply #433 on: August 06, 2017, 11:42:36 am »
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In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.
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« Reply #434 on: August 06, 2017, 04:38:44 pm »
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Quote
[/
In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.
eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right
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My Endorsements:
-Ralph Northam for VA Gov.
-Biden for President 2020
-Beto O'Rourke for TX Sen. 2018
-Joe Kennedy III for MA Gov. 2018
-Mike Levin for CA-49 2018
-Bernie for Reelection 2018
-Zephyr Teachout for NY-19 2018
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« Reply #435 on: August 06, 2017, 05:25:30 pm »
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I recall back in May that Michael Hein said he would announce by the end of July if he runs aganist Faso. Anyone got updates on that?
. Based on trump approval ratings in NY, Teachout could kill him in a rematch
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My Endorsements:
-Ralph Northam for VA Gov.
-Biden for President 2020
-Beto O'Rourke for TX Sen. 2018
-Joe Kennedy III for MA Gov. 2018
-Mike Levin for CA-49 2018
-Bernie for Reelection 2018
-Zephyr Teachout for NY-19 2018
Flawless Beautiful Sherrod Brown ❤ ❤ ❤
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« Reply #436 on: August 06, 2017, 05:32:55 pm »
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In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.
eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.
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« Reply #437 on: August 06, 2017, 05:35:15 pm »
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She literally got shot in the brain and has difficulty stringing together thoughts and speaking. In another world where she was never shot or survived the shooting unscathed, maybe. But we don't live in that world.
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ethanforamerica
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« Reply #438 on: August 06, 2017, 08:16:31 pm »
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In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.
eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.
She's made MASSIVE progress since the shooting. She learned how to talk in a couple of years, I'm not saying she WILL be up for it, I'm saying let's see where she's at decision time.
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My Endorsements:
-Ralph Northam for VA Gov.
-Biden for President 2020
-Beto O'Rourke for TX Sen. 2018
-Joe Kennedy III for MA Gov. 2018
-Mike Levin for CA-49 2018
-Bernie for Reelection 2018
-Zephyr Teachout for NY-19 2018
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« Reply #439 on: August 06, 2017, 11:58:23 pm »
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Bruh the woman got shot in the head. I'm happy she's made the progress she has but there are better options for Dems than her given the realities.
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« Reply #440 on: August 07, 2017, 12:23:22 am »
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In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.
eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.
She's made MASSIVE progress since the shooting. She learned how to talk in a couple of years, I'm not saying she WILL be up for it, I'm saying let's see where she's at decision time.

Give it a break already people.
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« Reply #441 on: August 09, 2017, 09:41:01 am »
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In what is quickly becoming a crowded primary, former OSU football star Anthony Gonzalez is looking to run as a Republican in OH-16.
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« Reply #442 on: August 09, 2017, 03:10:28 pm »
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IN-04 will be having a special election to replace Rokita
The seat will be open next year, but he isn't resigning.
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Endorsements:
AL-SEN: Roy Moore
FL-SEN: Rick Scott
IN-SEN: Luke Messer
MI-SEN: Fred Upton
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley
MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
OH-SEN: Josh Mandel
PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins
FL-GOV: Adam Putnam
OH-GOV: Jon Husted
VA-GOV: Ed Gilespie
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen
NH-02: Annie Kuster
NH Special Elections: All the Democrats!!!!
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« Reply #443 on: August 10, 2017, 12:30:25 pm »
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Generic 2018 congressional ballot in new @CNN poll (among registered voters) -->

Democrats 51%
Republicans 42%
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Virginia Governor: Ralph Northam
Maryland Governor: Ben Jealous
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« Reply #444 on: August 12, 2017, 04:39:36 pm »
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Billings attorney John Heenan (D) is running against Gianforte
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
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« Reply #445 on: August 12, 2017, 10:27:13 pm »
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Good recruit or?
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« Reply #446 on: August 12, 2017, 11:43:05 pm »
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I doubt dems can beat him now, but I pray to God that someone primaries this illegitimate jerk out.
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« Reply #447 on: August 13, 2017, 01:50:10 am »
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He's not a politician and has never been a candidate, so tbd. But his top issue will be health care, followed by campaign finance reform, which is much better than Quist's public lands obsession. Still, who knows how well he'll fundraise and campaign.
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« Reply #448 on: August 14, 2017, 09:00:24 am »

Definition of a "Some guy"
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« Reply #449 on: August 14, 2017, 12:28:08 pm »
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I have heard whispers about Sinema announcing a run vs Flake within the next few weeks, and Greg Stanton then announcing a bid for Kyrsten Sinema's current seat.
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