2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[smoltchanov]

Democrat average leads:

RCP: +8.9

Fivethirtyeight: +10.2

This is enough to flip the house.

Not sure. The swing will be nonuniform - first, and many republican congressmembers may be able to put enough distance between themselves and Trump to get reelected in their (usually rather strong Republican downballot) districts - second. No one knows the state of economy before election - third. If such numbers will exist in late October next year - i will be more confident (though even then - not 100% confident)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gary Johnson only got 3% of the vote in the 2016 presidential election, but this is still kind of interesting:

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[Former Senator Haslam2020]

In TN-2 the race to replace Duncan is already underway. I'm seeing signs, It's most likely gonna come down between Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett vs State Rep. Jimmy Matlock. I can see Matlock getting lots of conservatives, and he has a great ground campaign. I believe this race will be closer than people realize. There's also a couple business people running, but I don't expect any to receive above 10% of the vote. In fact, most likely around 2. Joshua Williams is running for the Dems.

[Kamala]

UT-01, Rob Bishop will retire in 2020.

[KingSweden]

WA-5:

Per DKE, it sounds like (as we expected) former WSU Spokane Chancellor and Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown is entering against Cathy McMorris-Rodgers.

Honestly, Stuckart dropping out may have worked out in Democrats' favor. Brown is a massive recruiting coup in a tough district

[jimrtex]

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Pete Gallego has announced that he will not seek election in the district he lost in 2014 and 2016.

Democrats will probably seek someone from San Antonio

[varesurgent]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

Ehh I think 538's analysis on the issue is more accurate: Dems need to win the PV by about 8 points to take back congress.

They're up about that now and out-of-power parties tend to accumulate support as the midterm closes in

[KingSweden]

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Pete Gallego has announced that he will not seek election in the district he lost in 2014 and 2016.

Democrats will probably seek someone from San Antonio

Too bad, but not surprising.

[varesurgent]

Democrat average leads:

RCP: +8.9

Fivethirtyeight: +10.2

This is enough to flip the house.

Not sure. The swing will be nonuniform - first, and many republican congressmembers may be able to put enough distance between themselves and Trump to get reelected in their (usually rather strong Republican downballot) districts - second. No one knows the state of economy before election - third. If such numbers will exist in late October next year - i will be more confident (though even then - not 100% confident)

Wouldn't be uniform, but I believe the median House district was R+5.5 in 2016, so doesn't need to be.  Historically, the out-of-power party has increased their generic vote polling numbers as Election Day approaches, so it looks good for Dems now.  Maybe if Trump tempers down a little bit and the economy doesn't hiccup, some anger will subside and Republicans will trim the margin a bit.

[Gass3268]

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[progressive85]

http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/kennedy-plans-to-run-for-house-seat-held-by-tipton

Retired Marine Chris Kennedy, positioning himself as not too far left or right, to run against Scott Tipton in CO-3.

This is definitely a winnable district for an expanding map in 2018.  In 2012, Scott Tipton won a bare majority of votes, 53.5%.  He has not solidified himself as an incumbent and Democrats have hoped their last two candidates would beat him.  He only won barely a little more in 2016.

#Ride the Wave 2018

[Cactus Jack]

http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/kennedy-plans-to-run-for-house-seat-held-by-tipton

Retired Marine Chris Kennedy, positioning himself as not too far left or right, to run against Scott Tipton in CO-3.

This is definitely a winnable district for an expanding map in 2018.  In 2012, Scott Tipton won a bare majority of votes, 53.5%.  He has not solidified himself as an incumbent and Democrats have hoped their last two candidates would beat him.  He only won barely a little more in 2016.

#Ride the Wave 2018

Kennedy is probably the best candidate we could hope for in Tipton's district. Military backgrounds always play well in this area of the country.

[Young Conservative]

http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/kennedy-plans-to-run-for-house-seat-held-by-tipton

Retired Marine Chris Kennedy, positioning himself as not too far left or right, to run against Scott Tipton in CO-3.

This is definitely a winnable district for an expanding map in 2018.  In 2012, Scott Tipton won a bare majority of votes, 53.5%.  He has not solidified himself as an incumbent and Democrats have hoped their last two candidates would beat him.  He only won barely a little more in 2016.

#Ride the Wave 2018

That's not a bare majority. Regardless, tilt R.

[MT Treasurer]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

[Hindsight was 2020]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

[McGovernForPrez]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

He might be, but its worth noting he isn't originally from Montana. Neither is Assaultforte, but that seems like the type of edge Democrats would need.

[Holmes]

Sounds like another Some Guy but who knows? Gianforte sucks and you never know if some rando has what it takes.

[Heisenberg]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

He might be, but its worth noting he isn't originally from Montana. Neither is Assaultforte, but that seems like the type of edge Democrats would need.

Assaulterforte should be fine, even though he isn't from Assualtana. He seems to be pretty popular from what I understand despite Assaultgate. I think he overperforms the GOP Senate nominee (who'll get AT LEAST 45%) by about 5 points or so, should be enough to get above 50%, even though they'll almost certainly bring up the incident.

[Dr. Arch]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

He might be, but its worth noting he isn't originally from Montana. Neither is Assaultforte, but that seems like the type of edge Democrats would need.

Assaulterforte should be fine, even though he isn't from Assualtana. He seems to be pretty popular from what I understand despite Assaultgate. I think he overperforms the GOP Senate nominee (who'll get AT LEAST 45%) by about 5 points or so, should be enough to get above 50%, even though they'll almost certainly bring up the incident.

lol, there will be no excuses to hide behind if he gets re-elected.

[UncleSam]

I think there's an issue with your second chart Mondale - the swings are not consistent in terms of which number is being subtracted from the other. From looking at it it looks to me like Republicans gained on average 2.5 points though from special election performance to midterm performance, if I'm reading that correctly? So saying that specials 'predict' house margin is a bit overstated - the margin of error on that is fairly large (standard deviation of 2.9 points, if I'm calculating it correctly), which would make the 95% confidence interval on the swing from special elections to national midterm house vote range from (-3.1,+8.1), where negative indicates a swing towards Democrats.

Of course the normal approximation to such a data set is not likely to be particularly accurate, and in fact the larger special margins tended to normalize (+9 for Republicans shifted left 2 points, +15 for Democrats shifted right 7 points), rather than shift with the average. I guess Dems basically hope that 2018 will mimic 2006, but I'm having a hard time seeing anything beyond the 30-seat pickup of 2006 based on the data (and there are good arguments why even a 2006 comparison is overstating things a bit).

[Virginiá]

but I'm having a hard time seeing anything beyond the 30-seat pickup of 2006 based on the data (and there are good arguments why even a 2006 comparison is overstating things a bit).

At the end of the day, the size of a new majority is largely irrelevant so long as it ensures Democrats pick the speaker and control the committees. Given the issues with the Senate map, a majority there is still nothing but a dream, and Trump is Trump, so we already know not much work will get done so long as Republicans control the Senate. In my opinion, the only real point of the House between 2019 and 2021 is to block unfavorable legislation and return the favor to Obama-era House Republicans by conducting vigorous oversight of Trump. If Trump's administration gets dirtier over the years, unrelenting investigations could soften Republicans up even more going into 2020, presenting us with another 2006-2008 scenario (except this time Democrats would be less popular probably, but still positioned for large gains, though maybe not as many, and in different places obviously)

If partisan politics guides everything, might as well play into it until the system is ready for a change.

[MT Treasurer]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

He might be, but its worth noting he isn't originally from Montana. Neither is Assaultforte, but that seems like the type of edge Democrats would need.

And neither is John Heenan, lol. But honestly, these kinds of attacks are incredibly silly anyway. As for Kier... I think he would probably be a slightly stronger candidate than Heenan (the latter would definitely fire up the base and might come across as very authentic, which matters a lot, but I think he'd struggle to get the last 2%-4% he needs to win). In any case, I'd say this race is Lean R, but I'm skeptical that there will be that many Tester/Gianforte voters. Gianforte has a very low ceiling but also a relatively high floor. Democrats shouldn't underestimate him again, but he's obviously not some unbeatable titan either. Gun to my head, he wins by about 5-6 points in the end. 

[McGovernForPrez]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

He might be, but its worth noting he isn't originally from Montana. Neither is Assaultforte, but that seems like the type of edge Democrats would need.

And neither is John Heenan, lol. But honestly, these kinds of attacks are incredibly silly anyway. As for Kier... I think he would probably be a slightly stronger candidate than Heenan (the latter would definitely fire up the base and might come across as very authentic, which matters a lot, but I think he'd struggle to get the last 2%-4% he needs to win). In any case, I'd say this race is Lean R, but I'm skeptical that there will be that many Tester/Gianforte voters. Gianforte has a very low ceiling but also a relatively high floor. Democrats shouldn't underestimate him again, but he's obviously not some unbeatable titan either. Gun to my head, he wins by about 5-6 points in the end. 

I hope Bullock, Tester, and the Dem House nominee do another video like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMQb_lCtcD8&t=2s

[Gustaf]

I think there's an issue with your second chart Mondale - the swings are not consistent in terms of which number is being subtracted from the other. From looking at it it looks to me like Republicans gained on average 2.5 points though from special election performance to midterm performance, if I'm reading that correctly? So saying that specials 'predict' house margin is a bit overstated - the margin of error on that is fairly large (standard deviation of 2.9 points, if I'm calculating it correctly), which would make the 95% confidence interval on the swing from special elections to national midterm house vote range from (-3.1,+8.1), where negative indicates a swing towards Democrats.

Of course the normal approximation to such a data set is not likely to be particularly accurate, and in fact the larger special margins tended to normalize (+9 for Republicans shifted left 2 points, +15 for Democrats shifted right 7 points), rather than shift with the average. I guess Dems basically hope that 2018 will mimic 2006, but I'm having a hard time seeing anything beyond the 30-seat pickup of 2006 based on the data (and there are good arguments why even a 2006 comparison is overstating things a bit).

I think the point of that table isn't the direction, just stating that the GE margin is strongly anchored by the special election margin.

You're right it's a small dataset and I assume it'd be sensitive to where the elections are held since swings aren't uniform. In 2002, one of the bigger deviations in the table, I guess there was a shift because of 9/11 in favour of the GOP.

[Blackacre]

According to 538's generic ballot average, the GOP just made a pretty big gain. Dem lead is now just shy of 8 points, lower than it's been in a while