2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Holmes]

According to 538's generic ballot average, the GOP just made a pretty big gain. Dem lead is now just shy of 8 points, lower than it's been in a while

Could it be because Trump's approvals stopped cratering....due to him working with the other party? That would be ironic.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Too lazy to dig up a link, but apparently Linda Coleman is running in NC-2.  I definitely think she has a shot against Holding, although he's a strong incumbent and this probably starts as lean-R.

[Keep cool-idge]

Dino is in
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-dino-rossi-announces-congressional-bid-to-replace-dave-reichert/

[Ebsy]

Dino is in
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-dino-rossi-announces-congressional-bid-to-replace-dave-reichert/

Probably the biggest recruitment success for the GOP of the cycle.

[SATW]

Dino is in
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-dino-rossi-announces-congressional-bid-to-replace-dave-reichert/

yay

[Brittain33]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

[Young Conservative]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

[Holmes]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

[Ye We Can]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

I mean if Charlie Crist could do it.

[Holmes]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

I mean if Charlie Crist could do it.

But he had also won at least once beforehand.

[Virginiá]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-party-approval/
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/09/24/poll.-.parties.and.2018.pdf.pdf

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Generic poll (CNN): 50 - 41 (D)


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edit: interestingly enough, based on the age cross tabs, a lot of this lead seems to be based on traditional Republican-leaning groups: older, whiter and more educated. Voters $50k+ seem to leaning more Democratic than in 2014, but will probably still be majority Republican, just less so.

[Ye We Can]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

I mean if Charlie Crist could do it.

But he had also won at least once beforehand.

Rossi hasn't won statewide but meh. He kept it close in a blue state each time he tried so I think he has a solid chance.

[Young Conservative]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

I mean if Charlie Crist could do it.

But he had also won at least once beforehand.

Rossi hasn't won statewide but meh. He kept it close in a blue state each time he tried so I think he has a solid chance.

Crist closely lost in a swing state. Rossi closely lost in a deep blue state. One is clearly more impressive than the other.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

I mean if Charlie Crist could do it.

But he had also won at least once beforehand.

Rossi hasn't won statewide but meh. He kept it close in a blue state each time he tried so I think he has a solid chance.

Crist closely lost in a swing state. Rossi closely lost in a deep blue state. One is clearly more impressive than the other.

Both were running in massive Republican wave years

[publicunofficial]

Rossi's previous losses have nothing to do with his strength as a candidate for WA-08.

Rossi is almost certainly going to do strongly in the Sammamish/Issaquah area of the district, which is one of the areas D's need to maximize their share of the vote in in order to win the seat. That's why I have it as Lean R.

[KingSweden]

Rossi's previous losses have nothing to do with his strength as a candidate for WA-08.

Rossi is almost certainly going to do strongly in the Sammamish/Issaquah area of the district, which is one of the areas D's need to maximize their share of the vote in in order to win the seat. That's why I have it as Lean R.

^^^

[136or142]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

Dino Rossi is a sore loser ass-hat.

[Brittain33]

Is there a chance the Dems could convince Myrth York to run? She'd have to move.

[Kamala]

If we're lucky this will be the map come January 2019.

[KingSweden]

If we're lucky this will be the map come January 2019.

Need a good challenger in the 3rd. Is it (finally) Tim Leavitt time?

[OneJ]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-party-approval/
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/09/24/poll.-.parties.and.2018.pdf.pdf

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Generic poll (CNN): 50 - 41 (D)


-

edit: interestingly enough, based on the age cross tabs, a lot of this lead seems to be based on traditional Republican-leaning groups: older, whiter and more educated. Voters $50k+ seem to leaning more Democratic than in 2014, but will probably still be majority Republican, just less so.

In this same poll, here is the excitement on voting for Congress...

Among registered Democrats:
*Extremely Enthusiastic - 24% (highest since first collection)
*Very Enthusiastic - 20% (fourth highest after Oct. 30-Nov 1, 2009, March 25-28, 2010 & Oct. 5-7, 2010)
*Somewhat Enthusiastic - 29% (lowest level since first collection)
*Not too Enthusiastic - 14% (lowest since March 25-28, 2010)
*Not at all Enthusiastic - 10% (third lowest after Oct. 30-Nov 1, 2009 & March 25-28, 2010)

Among registered Republicans:
*Extremely Enthusiastic - 14% (lowest since first collection)
*Very Enthusiastic - 20% (pretty consistent with previous years; fourth lowest)
*Somewhat Enthusiastic - 31% (second highest after Oct 30-Nov 1, 2009)
*Not too Enthusiastic - 18% (tied for second highest which was Sept 4-7; highest was Dec. 16-19)
*Not at all Enthusiastic - 14% (fourth highest)

Total enthusiasm (just using Extremely Enthusiastic + Very Enthusiastic) for Democrats is the highest it has ever been for them although it doesn't beat the peak total enthusiasm from Republicans. During Oct 5-7, 2010 and May 21-23, 2010 it was a total of 54% for Registered Republicans (although they were more likely to be extremely enthusiastic in October) compared to 44% for the Democrats right now, at least from CNN.

[Gass3268]

Generally speaking if there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

48% Democrat
37% Republican

PPP

[Virginiá]

Quinnipiac University national poll

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487

47 - 38 (D)


Some cross tabs:

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Heavy erosion among white college graduates and seniors. Also a return to the norm of +20 point blowouts among young people, except this time we might actually see the 30 - 44 year old demographic vote for Democrats with similar margins of 18 - 29 year olds. That would be a first, as all those Obama-era Millennials/gen xers have grown up.

Also I'd note that I don't think this is the first time Q showed those kinds of numbers for Hispanics. Wondering if that is just a quirk for this poll or if Republicans might pull in larger-than-normal support next year?

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Edit: PPP shows 59% - 16% for Hispanics in the poll posted above, so maybe just something funny with Q.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac University national poll

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487

47 - 38 (D)


Some cross tabs:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Heavy erosion among white college graduates and seniors. Also a return to the norm of +20 point blowouts among young people, except this time we might actually see the 30 - 44 year old demographic vote for Democrats with similar margins of 18 - 29 year olds. That would be a first, as all those Obama-era Millennials/gen xers have grown up.

Also I'd note that I don't think this is the first time Q showed those kinds of numbers for Hispanics. Wondering if that is just a quirk for this poll or if Republicans might pull in larger-than-normal support next year?

-

Edit: PPP shows 59% - 16% for Hispanics in the poll posted above, so maybe just something funny with Q.

What's the Hispanic subsample size in Q?  I looked for it in the data, but couldn't find it.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Generally speaking if there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

48% Democrat
37% Republican

PPP

Beautiful!