2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Blackacre]

According to 538's generic ballot average, the GOP just made a pretty big gain. Dem lead is now just shy of 8 points, lower than it's been in a while

[Blackacre]

the generic ballot is tighening, according to 538. I expected some reversion to the mean, but how far will it go? Last year reversion-to-the-mean type tightenings ended with around D+8. Will D+12 (where it is now) or D+10 be the new normal?

[Blackacre]

the generic ballot is tighening, according to 538. I expected some reversion to the mean, but how far will it go? Last year reversion-to-the-mean type tightenings ended with around D+8. Will D+12 (where it is now) or D+10 be the new normal?

It's tightening for the same reason Trump's numbers improved: holidays.

How long does a "holiday bump" typically last?

[Blackacre]

I question the Democrats' ability to keep enthusiasm high for another 11 months. I doubt it can remain at the levels immediately post Trump, especially if Mueller clears Trump and Congress passes infrastructure spending.

But neither of those things are going to happen.

[Blackacre]

Okay guys.

As you know, I am not a concern troll. I've been very bullish on D midterm chances since Trump won the 2016 election. So please, take what I'm about to say as genuine worry and not as trolling, because I am also a pants-wetting liberal.

Trump's approval is at its highest point since May, per 538. Despite the news cycle not being very friendly to him these past few weeks at all. Tax reform bump should have faded by now, same with the holiday bump. Our lead in the GCB average has gone down below 8 percent, per 538. That might not be enough to take back the House, let alone produce the tsunami we want. And the trend lines look awful for us. There's no reasonable explanation for this, like when his approvals went up a few ticks because he was out of the public eye playing golf or on foreign trips. If this continues, November might not be as good as I've thought.

What I'm saying is, please, Atlasians who are still bullish about Ds in 2018, convince me that I shouldn't worry. I am on my knees begging right now, please talk me down from this unhealthy pants-wetting-liberal state of mind.

edit: Yes the Wisconsin special election is a positive sign but my irrational mind isn't satisfied with just that as evidence against me worrying

[Blackacre]

Okay guys.

As you know, I am not a concern troll. I've been very bullish on D midterm chances since Trump won the 2016 election. So please, take what I'm about to say as genuine worry and not as trolling, because I am also a pants-wetting liberal.

Trump's approval is at its highest point since May, per 538. Despite the news cycle not being very friendly to him these past few weeks at all. Tax reform bump should have faded by now, same with the holiday bump. Our lead in the GCB average has gone down below 8 percent, per 538. That might not be enough to take back the House, let alone produce the tsunami we want. And the trend lines look awful for us. There's no reasonable explanation for this, like when his approvals went up a few ticks because he was out of the public eye playing golf or on foreign trips. If this continues, November might not be as good as I've thought.

What I'm saying is, please, Atlasians who are still bullish about Ds in 2018, convince me that I shouldn't worry. I am on my knees begging right now, please talk me down from this unhealthy pants-wetting-liberal state of mind.

edit: Yes the Wisconsin special election is a positive sign but my irrational mind isn't satisfied with just that as evidence against me worrying

Because watching for 2-4% "surges" this far out from the election like LimoLiberal is pointless.  What's important is to look at the national environment as a whole - factors like special election results, the president's long term approval rating, retirements, fundraising, recruitment.  The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of a very strong Dem midterm.  For whatever reason, Trump's approval and and the Repubs' standing in the GCB has recovered a few points from its December nadir, but the national environment hasn't really changed much overall.

Now, a favorable national environment could still have a range of outcomes from something like a modest 15-20 seat House pickup to a massive wave election.  We just don't know yet.  But unless you see Trump continuing to gain in approval until he hits 50%, I wouldn't worry.  Given the extremely high number of people who strongly disapprove of Trump, I just don't see that happening. 

Thanks. Sometimes I get so wrapped up in short-term fluctuations that I fail to see the big picture. Sorry about that.

[Blackacre]

*Democrat wins Alabama Senate Race, elections show huge shift towards Democrats, Substantial lead in every generic ballot, Trump 15 points underwater*

"Meh, we're still a ways out"

*Morning Consult: D+3*

"Well time to go shoot myself"

I don't know how much of this is my personality, how much is my (mild) anxiety disorder, and how much of it is my memory of 2016, when I was VERY worried, was convinced to calm down, and then Trump won. Or that the last time we won a midterm was when I was 10.

[Blackacre]

I don't see what's wrong with Matiella. She's just simply better.