2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Virginiá]

Democrats partner with political newcomers aiming to create anti-Trump wave in 2018 midterms

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-partner-with-political-newcomers-hoping-to-create-anti-trump-wave-in-2018-midterms/2017/04/21/91514ec8-2502-11e7-bb9d-8cd6118e1409_story.html

-

Some names mentioned there

[Virginiá]

It's a good number, but I still think we need to see consistent double digits for Democrats from a whole range of different polls for a long time to have a real shot at a big wave. Take the 2006 question results:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html

Democrats dominated for over a year prior to the election, mostly getting double digits, only to underperform by election day. If Democrats averaged only 8 - 9 points on this question by Nov 2018 and underperformed, that would be disappointing, all things considered. I don't think it is guaranteed that Democrats underperform, but it has happened in a number of elections.

However, one thing not to be glossed over here is just how soon Republicans are tanking in this kind of poll. It does seem eerily reminiscent of 2006 (scroll down on link above to 2005)

Anywho, we'll see.

[Virginiá]

I would be surprised if that gap holds. Republicans always rally at the end and you end up with a smaller gap.

Probably. Democrats tend to underperform their generic ballot numbers. However, even if that gap does shrink, it would still portend a blowout. Shave 6 points off and you're still at a 10% PV win, which could definitely flip the House. I'm not getting excited until I see many different polls showing similar results for more than just a blip in time. Unless this is the beginning of a sustained downward spiral, it remains something of an outlier.

[Virginiá]

That's separate double digit polls, and then the CNN one showing a 9 point lead. Looks like the public is starting to turn against the GOP itself now. Unfortunately, it's still very early. There is a lot of time for things to change in the GOP's favor (or get worse for them as well).

On the other hand, it also seems likely the Trump and the GOP's overall support will stay anemic for this year's elections in November, which would give Democrats a good chance to make some gains in the VA HoD, hold their statewide offices and make a sweep in NJ.

[Virginiá]

My impression is that we are so polarized now that the economy just doesn't matter as much as it did in e.g. the mid 20th century.  Obama and Clinton didn't get much credit for the recovery in 2014 or 2016, after all.  The late 19th century was a similar environment, in that only the two most severe downturns in a 30 year period (1873 and 1893) actually caused a wave election.  That having been said, it would be unprecedented in US history to get all the way to 2021 without a recession.

You're right on the credit giving, although I think that might be partially due to an uneven recovery (on numerous levels). However, a wave election due to a recession certainly seems possible still. It just might not have the reach it did even as early as 2008, which was enabled in part by some circumstances that are no longer relevant.

What might be up for more debate is exactly how rough the recession would need to be to generate a certain kind of wave. 2008 was pretty bad, after all.

[Virginiá]

His challenge also makes SD-9 an open seat next year, which should help Democrats take back the NH State Senate. That was a 47-46 Clinton seat.

[Virginiá]

Democratic performance in the special elections actually seems to match up decently with the RCP average of +8pt on the generic ballot.

It could be the case that because of a gap in enthusiasm and the huge approval/disapproval gap among college educated whites that Democrats overperform their numbers next year, seeing as they are a higher turnout group that the GOP has relied a lot on in the past.

We'll see.

[Virginiá]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2471

Democrats 51 - 41 over Republicans in generic ballot.

Currently at least 64% among 18 - 34 year olds. Could be another 2008-level blowout among this group, which imo, long-term, is bad news bears for Republicans. Every election since 2004 they are setting new records for losing the youth vote by landslide margins. No party has ever lost that group this many times in a row, let alone by such huge margins.

[Virginiá]

Damn you morden. My incessant need to type long-winded posts slowed me down too much!

[Virginiá]

From what I'm hearing a couple high profile Texas dems are waiting on the new court ordered redistricting maps before running

The trial to see if the 2013 interim maps need to be redrawn is about to start on Monday (10th), and we should probably find out exactly what is going to happen sometime in the next couple months, or perhaps much sooner. Here is a pretty detailed Q/A about it (article is new):

https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/texas-redistricting-back-court

As I understand it, not only could we see a more Democratic-leaning 23rd district, but they might have to draw upwards of 2 - 3 more Hispanic minority opportunity districts, which could really help Democrats out in 2018.

And as a cherry on top, there is a chance Texas could find itself bailed back into requiring preclearance for district maps and changes to election laws, on account of all their racially discriminatory laws/maps passed over the past 7 years.

Here's a doozy from it:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Virginiá]

We will likely have additional candidates in that district, but again, Gallego is a retread, but he's also a very good fit for the district.

Personally I wouldn't mind Gallego running again if the 23rd gets redrawn before the 2018 elections, which would almost surely make it more Democratic, but if it doesn't, I'd rather they go with someone else. He has already lost twice in a row now (I would note his 2016 percentage was actually a smidge lower than 2014 as well). He came close, but we absolutely need this district, and if there is someone better I'd rather they give it a go.

[Virginiá]

Looks like the Republican Party's brand is deteriorating rather rapidly. Their RCP average is already down to -9 points. Even after Bush's reelection, it took Democrats about a year before their generic poll lead reached double digits.

[Virginiá]

Paging Technocratic Timmy:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/24/1683339/-Morning-Digest-How-California-s-top-two-primary-could-wind-up-saving-a-vulnerable-Republican

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I really wish they would just get rid of the top-two stuff already. Maybe even Republicans would be on board with that, given that it looks poised to lock them out of countless races in the future if their state party continues its implosion. Say what you will about whatever benefits top-two brings, but a party should not be locked out of a general election just because swarms of their candidates diluted the vote so much that allowed two opposition members to go forward against each other.

[Virginiá]

Why not? Idiotism must be punished. And failure to guarantee as much candidates as needed for having best chances to win is an idiotism.

I pretty much stated my main opposition to this already. I'm not a big fan of the way we currently elect politicians, but I want more far-reaching reforms and not things like this. I'm not sure I like the idea of statewide California elections frequently becoming DvD matchups (even if for partisan reasons it is appealing), nor do I like the idea of competitive House races going to Republicans because Democrats couldn't help but pile into the race en masse and split the vote in obscene ways.

[Virginiá]

So "Quinnijunk" is no longer a thing?

Their polls do seem overly friendly to Democrats, but I personally wouldn't call them junk. Not at all. Their large leads for Democrats in the generic poll are not that far off from select other polls according to 538 (link)

[Virginiá]

I'm curious how the polls will develop in October 2018. I never really understood why some analysts have said that waves usually tend to break late, then cite 2006 as an example. '06, if you went by the generic polls, was clear as day as far back as January 2006, maybe more. Are they talking about the polls for individual candidates?

[Virginiá]

but I'm having a hard time seeing anything beyond the 30-seat pickup of 2006 based on the data (and there are good arguments why even a 2006 comparison is overstating things a bit).

At the end of the day, the size of a new majority is largely irrelevant so long as it ensures Democrats pick the speaker and control the committees. Given the issues with the Senate map, a majority there is still nothing but a dream, and Trump is Trump, so we already know not much work will get done so long as Republicans control the Senate. In my opinion, the only real point of the House between 2019 and 2021 is to block unfavorable legislation and return the favor to Obama-era House Republicans by conducting vigorous oversight of Trump. If Trump's administration gets dirtier over the years, unrelenting investigations could soften Republicans up even more going into 2020, presenting us with another 2006-2008 scenario (except this time Democrats would be less popular probably, but still positioned for large gains, though maybe not as many, and in different places obviously)

If partisan politics guides everything, might as well play into it until the system is ready for a change.

[Virginiá]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-party-approval/
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/09/24/poll.-.parties.and.2018.pdf.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Generic poll (CNN): 50 - 41 (D)


-

edit: interestingly enough, based on the age cross tabs, a lot of this lead seems to be based on traditional Republican-leaning groups: older, whiter and more educated. Voters $50k+ seem to leaning more Democratic than in 2014, but will probably still be majority Republican, just less so.

[Virginiá]

Quinnipiac University national poll

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487

47 - 38 (D)


Some cross tabs:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Heavy erosion among white college graduates and seniors. Also a return to the norm of +20 point blowouts among young people, except this time we might actually see the 30 - 44 year old demographic vote for Democrats with similar margins of 18 - 29 year olds. That would be a first, as all those Obama-era Millennials/gen xers have grown up.

Also I'd note that I don't think this is the first time Q showed those kinds of numbers for Hispanics. Wondering if that is just a quirk for this poll or if Republicans might pull in larger-than-normal support next year?

-

Edit: PPP shows 59% - 16% for Hispanics in the poll posted above, so maybe just something funny with Q.

[Virginiá]

Do you guys think this thread should stay stickied?  It's worth having a megathread for generic polls but I'm not so sure anymore if it needs to stay at the top, or perhaps it could be re-stickied closer to election time next year.

?

[Virginiá]

Ok, let's keep all recruitment, fundraising and generic ballot posts in this thread. I know generic ballot seems out of place, but that thread already wasn't getting too much traffic, so it shouldn't be much of an impact here. Since there have been some complaints about the number of stickies, I thought I would do something about it.

However if there is a high-profile recruitment or something that normally would belong here but seems interesting enough to get its own thread, feel free.

[Virginiá]

Doesn't this create at least some level of cognitive dissonance for olds plugged into Fox? They hear Hannity talking for hours about how Trump is doing an A+ fantastic great best job and that Democrats are incompetent, and then are shown a poll showing the apparent opposite.

I guess it feeds into the "congressional Republicans are hamstringing Trump" narrative?

I imagine that depends on how much they talk about that poll. If it's shown/talked about for collectively, maybe, 5 minutes or so over 2 days, then the amount of people who see it, let alone those who truly digest it, is not significant.

Plus, we all know how polls are treated, especially for some Trump people who spent 2016 looking at polls showing The Donald losing: fake news!

[Virginiá]

If that was the case then Handel would've lost, there's enthusiasm for the Democrats but it's in the wrong part of the nation.

Err, are you sure? See, whenever I see GA-6 mentioned it always seems to be coupled with the idea that that district is very competitive right now despite being a deeply Republican district all the way up until 2016. It has been suggested a number of times before, and I think it's probably true that district may have swung as far to the left as it can under normal midterm/presidential turnout scenarios. Yes, it's very close to being a Clinton district, but that is after a massive swing away from Republicans. What Clinton / Ossoff got may be the absolute ceiling outside of low-key special elections with lopsided turnout. In that sense, all the money and attention showered on GA-6 may have worked against Ossoff by bringing out Republicans who may not have voted beforehand.

No one should be drawing too many conclusions based off of one gubernatorial election in a relatively competitive state one year before the 2018 midterm elections. A lot can change between now and then, and even in a wave environment, it's not that uncommon for the party on the losing end of said wave to win elections one might think they should be locked out of.

[Virginiá]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

I'm now 20% less straight than I used to be.

lmbo. God that guy is hot

[Virginiá]

This is among 18-29 year old Millennials only: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/harvard-millennials-now-biggest-voting-group-in-us-2-1-democratic/article/2642567

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Millennials back to 2008 numbers in terms of support for Democrats