2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[McGovernForPrez]

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

I was watching a video of protesting in Fred Upton's district. Obama won the district in 2012, so I wouldn't doubt it given a favorable national mood.

[McGovernForPrez]

Hysterically high "Not sure" number for YouGOV.

Moderate Hero Wulfric types blaming both sides equally?

Moderates usually blame both sides. Which deserve it. As an old saying goes: "plague on both your houses"....))))

Sure, sometimes both sides have problems, but centrism worship is the worst. It's basically not having an opinion at all. Too afraid to be committed to an actual intellectual position. Pure cowardice.

[McGovernForPrez]

Dems have a good candidate in IA-01 in Dubuque State Rep Abby Finkenauer:

https://www.facebook.com/Abby4Congress/

1st term legislator but fits the "Obama" mold pretty well in a district he carried by 13 points in 2012.

That's really great. IA-01 belongs with Dems not some loony Tea Partier. Hopefully Hillary's image hasn't permanently damaged the party's strength there.

[McGovernForPrez]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/862677191880060929

Richard Ojeda in for the Dems in WV-03. Great recruit, extremely tough district.

Super happy about this recruit. I hope he wins.

[McGovernForPrez]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

He was also backed by the Montana political establishment. The Quist loss had more to do with his individual weakness as a candidate than his Bernie association. Most of those weaknesses weren't known by anybody until it was too late.

[McGovernForPrez]

MA-7: Cambridge councilor Nadeem Mazen is primarying Capuano.

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Capuano is gonna send this guy into another dimension.

[McGovernForPrez]

So, Sam Johnson, a 13-term incumbent from TX-03, is retiring.

The Democrats have fielded a candidate with the exact same name.

https://www.votesamjohnson.com

Of course, he has to make it through the primary, but if he does...

I would die if he actually won like that.

[McGovernForPrez]

Chart from Brookings on the number of House challengers who have raised >$5000 by this point each election cycle:

I really would love to see what the correlation between these numbers overall house pickups mean. Just based off of the the graph shown there must be some sort of correlation.

[McGovernForPrez]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Honestly more Democrats should take up this strategy.

I dunno. I don't have an opinion one way or another, but if too many say that, then Democrats win a narrow majority and Pelosi needs their votes to become Speaker, you're looking at maybe Paul Ryan getting the most votes to become Speaker and we're all screwed again.

If there's that many votes to threaten Paul Ryan being speaker then former Pelosi voters should just jump ship. This is where having a good whip count would help a lot.

[McGovernForPrez]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Honestly more Democrats should take up this strategy.

I dunno. I don't have an opinion one way or another, but if too many say that, then Democrats win a narrow majority and Pelosi needs their votes to become Speaker, you're looking at maybe Paul Ryan getting the most votes to become Speaker and we're all screwed again.

If there's that many votes to threaten Paul Ryan being speaker then former Pelosi voters should just jump ship. This is where having a good whip count would help a lot.

Its a good way to win grassroots, but I don't see it as a good way to get $$$$$

At a certain point just who gives a f*** about money if we can't win seats.

[McGovernForPrez]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

He might be, but its worth noting he isn't originally from Montana. Neither is Assaultforte, but that seems like the type of edge Democrats would need.

[McGovernForPrez]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

He might be, but its worth noting he isn't originally from Montana. Neither is Assaultforte, but that seems like the type of edge Democrats would need.

And neither is John Heenan, lol. But honestly, these kinds of attacks are incredibly silly anyway. As for Kier... I think he would probably be a slightly stronger candidate than Heenan (the latter would definitely fire up the base and might come across as very authentic, which matters a lot, but I think he'd struggle to get the last 2%-4% he needs to win). In any case, I'd say this race is Lean R, but I'm skeptical that there will be that many Tester/Gianforte voters. Gianforte has a very low ceiling but also a relatively high floor. Democrats shouldn't underestimate him again, but he's obviously not some unbeatable titan either. Gun to my head, he wins by about 5-6 points in the end. 

I hope Bullock, Tester, and the Dem House nominee do another video like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMQb_lCtcD8&t=2s

[McGovernForPrez]

When you think politics can't get any stranger:

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Only in Florida could this possibly happen.

[McGovernForPrez]

Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11

Whoo!

[McGovernForPrez]

Apparently dems are on the verge of getting their top recruit for PA-08. Scott Wallace the grandson of FDR VP Henry Wallace is "strongly leaning" toward running against Fitzpatrick https://whyy.org/articles/democrats-rise-take-republican-rep-fitzpatrick-bucks-county/

Kind of ironic considering FDR didn't win PA in his first run.

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah I think the economy is a huge part of why Republicans are seeing a generic ballot boon.  A lot of on the fence voters are being calmed down sheerly by the state the economy is in right now. That doesn't mean things are over for Dems though. The economy is a fickle mistress and could turn on Republicans at any moment.