2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Kamala]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

[Kamala]

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

I think Poliquin will be safe but Blum is in serious trouble and I can see Upton going down over the AHCA

I feel that if 2018 will be a significant wave, Poliquin could be taken down by a star recruit - Troy Jackson, perhaps?

[Kamala]

Yeah, I somehow doubt that Ann Kirkpatrick running against Martha McSally is a good idea. I mean, she could win if people are mad enough at Republicans, but she doesn't seem like a great option to me.

McSally is already losing to a generic Dem by a significant margin.. 43-50.
https://perma.cc/FQ4L-ZWV2

[Kamala]

Yeah, I somehow doubt that Ann Kirkpatrick running against Martha McSally is a good idea. I mean, she could win if people are mad enough at Republicans, but she doesn't seem like a great option to me.

McSally is already losing to a generic Dem by a significant margin.. 43-50.
https://perma.cc/FQ4L-ZWV2

Kirkpatrick isn't really a "generic" Dem. She recently lost the Senate race, including losing this district, so even ignoring "carpetbagging" there are reasons to believe she's not the best candidate.

Hmm... who would be the best candidate? Mayor Jonathan Rothschild of Tucson?

[Kamala]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way. 

An opPortune recruit. Sorry. I'll leave the premises.

[Kamala]

Curiouser and Curiouser:

Ex-GOP Rep Richard Hanna considering running for Congress in NY22 - as an Independent. District currently held by GOPer Claudia Tenney. Apparently there is some bad blood between them, and this would certainly open up the district for a Dem pickup opportunity.

http://wibx950.com/richard-hanna-for-congress-again-former-representatives-candid-take-on-washington/

I think Hanna would more likely caucus with the Dems unless the Republicans majorly repudiate Trumpism and the President, so it could possibly be more wise to "sit out" this election and explicitly or implicitly support Hanna.

[Kamala]

NH-01: GOP state senator Andy Sanborn to challenge Carol Shea-Porter: http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-republican-andy-sanborn-announces-candidacy-for-1st-district-us-house-seat/10014030

Eh, I think CSP survives. Having Shaheen on the ticket helps her and Kusty (not like she needs any help)

[Kamala]

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/yoder-gets-new-challenger-kansas

KS-03 : Children's health clinic president Andrea Ramsey is challenging Yoder

[Kamala]

WA-04: Former news anchor Christine Brown files to run against Newhouse.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/newhouse-gets-challenger-washington

Interesting that so far two of Washington's house republicans have a challenger named Brown. We'll see who will stand against Buetler and Riechert.

[Kamala]

So, Sam Johnson, a 13-term incumbent from TX-03, is retiring.

The Democrats have fielded a candidate with the exact same name.

https://www.votesamjohnson.com

Of course, he has to make it through the primary, but if he does...

[Kamala]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

[Kamala]

SD-AL: Tim Bjorkman (D), retired circuit court judge, will announce a run on Thursday for the open seat.

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/10/former-circuit-court-judge-run-u-s-house/464186001/

Decent choice - as long as his "focus on local issues" campaign can basically seperate itself from the national party.

[Kamala]

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/02/hurd-gets-first-democratic-challenger-2018/

Seems like an excellent recruit, a lot better than running Gallego again.

Shades of a female Kander. I hope she does well!

[Kamala]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Boyda won this seat in 2006 and I think Davis is a much stronger candidate. Plus it's an open seat, which bodes well.

Also I think Davis won this district in 2014 gubernatorial, or at least was very close. Especially considering that it's Brownback's home district.

[Kamala]

That would be an 18 point swing in PA. Dems can maybe pick up 3 or so seats. Same in Michigan, a 15 point swing could net Democrats 2 or 3 seats.

In PA, Meehan, Fitzpatrick, and Costello?

In Michigan, Bishop, Trott, and Upton? Or maybe even Amash's or Walberg's district?

[Kamala]

UT-01, Rob Bishop will retire in 2020.

[Kamala]

If we're lucky this will be the map come January 2019.

[Kamala]

I saw on DKE that Rosen has raised $1.2 mil in Q3 and has about the same amount in COH.

[Kamala]

Wow @ McSally. That is a solid haul.

Doesn't look like Knight or Rohrabacher want to be reelected. 145k and 182k will not go far in the LA media market, I assume. They have decent war chests, but LA is expensive...

[Kamala]

Hottinger's out. Won't run for Tiberi's seat.

[Kamala]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

[Kamala]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

I'm now 20% less straight than I used to be.

lmbo. God that guy is hot

It's not fair to the rest of the states. Tulsi AND Kaniela? Might be the most attractive set of congressmen ...ever?

Noem is very pretty too, but has horrible politics. But we've only got 1 Rep, so it's easier..

[Kamala]

TX-29, Gene Green is retiring. Safe D.

[Kamala]

Van Drew entering race on Wednesday.

https://www.insidernj.com/van-drew-launch-cd2-bid-wednesday/

D+1

Likely D in this environment.

[Kamala]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/935716132174123008

Mike Turner a "decent bet" to retire.

OH-10 is R+4.