Democrat average leads:
RCP: +8.9
Fivethirtyeight: +10.2
This is enough to flip the house.
Not sure. The swing will be nonuniform - first, and many republican congressmembers may be able to put enough distance between themselves and Trump to get reelected in their (usually rather strong Republican downballot) districts - second. No one knows the state of economy before election - third. If such numbers will exist in late October next year - i will be more confident (though even then - not 100% confident)
Wouldn't be uniform, but I believe the median House district was R+5.5 in 2016, so doesn't need to be. Historically, the out-of-power party has increased their generic vote polling numbers as Election Day approaches, so it looks good for Dems now. Maybe if Trump tempers down a little bit and the economy doesn't hiccup, some anger will subside and Republicans will trim the margin a bit.
