2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Holmes]

For what it's worth, and it might not be a lot, but the question is "what party do you want to win control of the House?", not "what party would you vote for?"

[Holmes]

No surprise that Blum is in serious danger.

[Holmes]

Feingold has proven that he can't win, and when he does it's never a comfortable victory.

[Holmes]

Ashford is back.

Also sounds like Mello isn't jumping in.

[Holmes]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

[Holmes]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

Sinema would lose badly, Stanton's our best candidate here.

I don't think Sinema would lose badly, but either way she's not running. Gallego would be a good candidate too.

[Holmes]

It'd be fun if there were a member of Congress named Bjorkman.

[Holmes]

CA-50's one of the toughest R held SoCal districts to crack.

[Holmes]

Dems get a good recruit against Collins in Erin Cole. His investment scandals and Trumlcare support probably make him a weak incumbent, though Colemwould be working against the district's Republicsn lean.

http://buffalonews.com/2017/07/19/first-dem-challenge-collins-comes-armed-loaded-resume/

[Holmes]

Why wet your pants over the possibility of an R vs R runoff in a top two primary a year out from the primary itself? Sounds like they just want to scare people for the sake of scaring them.

[Holmes]

Impressive intro for Dem challenger to Andy Barr in KY-06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk

Jim Gray should still run. He won KY-06 by six last year. KY was a blowout for the GOP, and it's doubly impressive because Gray's gay.

Jim Gray was from Lexington though, but yeah, I don't think that's insignificant. McGrath seems like a good candidate on paper.

[Holmes]

She literally got shot in the brain and has difficulty stringing together thoughts and speaking. In another world where she was never shot or survived the shooting unscathed, maybe. But we don't live in that world.

[Holmes]

Billings attorney John Heenan (D) is running against Gianforte

Good recruit or?

He's not a politician and has never been a candidate, so tbd. But his top issue will be health care, followed by campaign finance reform, which is much better than Quist's public lands obsession. Still, who knows how well he'll fundraise and campaign.

[Holmes]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Honestly more Democrats should take up this strategy.

I dunno. I don't have an opinion one way or another, but if too many say that, then Democrats win a narrow majority and Pelosi needs their votes to become Speaker, you're looking at maybe Paul Ryan getting the most votes to become Speaker and we're all screwed again.

[Holmes]

That would be an 18 point swing in PA. Dems can maybe pick up 3 or so seats. Same in Michigan, a 15 point swing could net Democrats 2 or 3 seats.

[Holmes]

I think Bergman is more vulnurable than Upton. If Upton retires, I think his seat would be in serious danger of flipping.

[Holmes]

Sounds like another Some Guy but who knows? Gianforte sucks and you never know if some rando has what it takes.

[Holmes]

According to 538's generic ballot average, the GOP just made a pretty big gain. Dem lead is now just shy of 8 points, lower than it's been in a while

Could it be because Trump's approvals stopped cratering....due to him working with the other party? That would be ironic.

[Holmes]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

[Holmes]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

I mean if Charlie Crist could do it.

But he had also won at least once beforehand.

[Holmes]

I was just thinking how no one is running in GA-06. I do think it's because everyone in the know knows that Ossoff is running again. He just needs to move into the district.

[Holmes]

Brandon Presley is teasing a Senate run? In favor of cutting taxes, pro-life, well liked, regularly holds town hall meetings across northern Mississippi, related to Elvis... with a divisive Republican primary coming up, who knows?

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/921000618373865472

[Holmes]

Brandon Presley is teasing a Senate run? In favor of cutting taxes, pro-life, well liked, regularly holds town hall meetings across northern Mississippi, related to Elvis... with a divisive Republican primary coming up, who knows?

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/921000618373865472

Only if McDaniel is the nominee or another up

Yeah. Or maybe it'd be best to wait until 2020 when it's either Cochran or open seat.

[Holmes]

One of the easiest pickups in a long time.

[Holmes]

Democrats +15 in the new Fox Poll

But where's the wave?