2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Gass3268]

VA-10: Democrats top choice, State Senator Jennifer Wexton, jumped in to challenge Comstock
TX-32: Former NFL player Colin Allred launches campaign to challenge Pete Sessions
KS-03: Jay Sidie is fundraising for another shot at Yoder


Regularly-updated retirement / open seat spreadsheet (DKE):  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12RhR9oZZpyKKceyLO3C5am84abKzu2XqLWjP2LnQDgI/edit#gid=0


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Mod note (1/1/2018):  Added open seat / retirement spreadsheet link

[Gass3268]

Why is Wexton the top recruit anyway?

Here's what DKE had:

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Sounds like this could be a busy primary however:

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[Gass3268]

CNN/ORC:

50% Democrats
41% Republicans




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mod edit (6/5/2017): Here is the 538 Generic Ballot polls thread:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/


mod edit (7/7/2017): CFP midterm loss regression analysis:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/generic-ballot-model-gives-democrats-early-advantage-in-battle-for-control-of-house/

[Gass3268]

RIP Dold vs. Schneider

[Gass3268]

Dems have a good candidate in IA-01 in Dubuque State Rep Abby Finkenauer:

https://www.facebook.com/Abby4Congress/

1st term legislator but fits the "Obama" mold pretty well in a district he carried by 13 points in 2012.

That's really great. IA-01 belongs with Dems not some loony Tea Partier. Hopefully Hillary's image hasn't permanently damaged the party's strength there.

TBF, Hillary only lost IA-01 by 4 points, so it's not exactly ruby red.

Also, let's not forget that Republicans represented IA-01 and IA-02 (slightly different geographic make up, but similar) before the 2006 wave.

[Gass3268]

New PPP poll for Stop The Speaker has Ryan at -8% in his own district, 48% would like someone new

[Gass3268]

Kirkpatrick considering to move to #AZ-02 and challenging Mcsally

She is a graduate of the University of Arizona in Tucson.

[Gass3268]

New PPP poll for Stop The Speaker has Ryan at -8% in his own district, 48% would like someone new

Feingold should run for his seat

He lives in WI-02 IIRC. Though he has been mentioned as a possible candidate for WI-03, and WI-06 in the past as well LOL.

He was born and raised in Janesville and went to the same high school as Ryan.

[Gass3268]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 6/21-6/25:

Democrats 48%
Republicans 38%

Source

[Gass3268]

IL-14: Montgomery Village President [is that really a title?] Matt Brolley to seek D nomination against GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren.  http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/aurora-beacon-news/news/ct-abn-montgomery-mayor-congress-st-0630-20170629-story.html

Yeah, villages in the Midwest have Village Presidents and a Village Board.

[Gass3268]

Ann Kirkpatrick has filed with the FEC to run against McSalley in AZ-02

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[Gass3268]

EMILY's List doesn't endorse or back dudes.

[Gass3268]

Any bet on what Quinnipiac will show on GCB? I'll guess D+15 in the Senate and D+12 in the House.

Reminder that senate Democrats won the GCB in 2012 by 12 points.

+14 for both.

Democratic Party net favorability -12
Republican Party net favorability -42

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

PPP:

49% Democrats
35% Republicans

Source

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Generally speaking if there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

48% Democrat
37% Republican

PPP

[Gass3268]

Democrats +15 in the new Fox Poll

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

California is gonna be a bloodbath for Republicans.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

American Values Survey from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI)

Dem 44%
Rep 37%

Men:

Rep 43%
Dem 36%

Women:

Dem 51%
Rep 31%

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Dem internal poll has Ed Royce in CA-39 up 48-44. https://www.scribd.com/document/367450908/CA-39-Tulchin-Research-for-Gil-Cisneros-Nov-2017

Awesome Poll! The blue wave is rising! Royce is an institution, even being down is horrendous.

[Gass3268]

Pro-Trump PAC has Dems up 12%, 37-49, and some other tax bill stuff.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/republican-poll-shows-political-challenges-possible-benefits-of-passing-tax-bill/article/2643873

That's brutal.