2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, being a pro-choice is not neccessarily a big plus in this district...

[smoltchanov]

^ Really good candidate. But district is still difficult. For any Democrat...

[smoltchanov]

Hysterically high "Not sure" number for YouGOV.

Moderate Hero Wulfric types blaming both sides equally?

Moderates usually blame both sides. Which deserve it. As an old saying goes: "plague on both your houses"....))))

[smoltchanov]

^ And given present level of political polarization in his and similar southern districts. There are simply not enough Blacks there, and most of the whites stopped to vote for ANY Democratic candidates... ANY, except, may be, a very local levels.

[smoltchanov]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but Issaquah City Councilmember Tola Marts is running against Reichert in WA-8. Marts sounds like exactly my favorite kind of Democrat, but then again, I'm not a WA-8 voter, and I don't suspect I'm close what a swing voter in the district looks like, so we shall see:

https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/issaquah-councilmember-tola-marts-to-challenge-dave-reichert-in-8th-district

Well, district became somewhat more conservative in last redistricting, IIRC, so the ablity to appeal to swing voters is a plus for Democratic candidate here...We shall see..

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

He was also backed by the Montana political establishment. The Quist loss had more to do with his individual weakness as a candidate than his Bernie association. Most of those weaknesses weren't known by anybody until it was too late.

Agree. And don't understand why establishment backed him. Even his some initial positions (before personal flaws became known), like strong support for gun control, were very difficult to sell in Montana

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently.

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

1: Not what Chickenhawk meant
2: The bold evinces why you are one of the worst posters on here.

Do you REALLY think that i care about your opinion??? Not even funny,,,, In fact - i relish such comments from such persons)))

[smoltchanov]

Kenneth Queen is running for NC-10, Patrick McHenry's seat. White, straight, married with three (I think, judging from photos) kids, and a military background. His website has a issues page, but it's not very flushed out and there is nothing really specific. A "strong supporter" of the Second Amendment, Medicare-for-all, pro-choice but for free birth control and "fact based sex education" among other things to lessen the need for abortion, education as a right (not sure if this refers to free-college, or just fighting further restrictions), for a secure border (nothing about amnesty), and 100% renewable energy by 2035.

http://www.queenforcongress.com/issues/

He apparently spoke at a March for Truth rally here in Asheville, NC today (June 3rd). I did not attend, but it is reported on their website.

https://indivisibleavl.org/06-01-2017/march-for-truth-against-russianties-on-saturday-june-3/

"White, straight, married, with three children, military background" is good for this district. Pro-choice? Not so much, probably...

[smoltchanov]

Honestly I like the Nader-voting, "prada socialist" radical queer Sinema over Blue Dog Congresswoman Sinema.

You - sure. But how about Arizona voters?

[smoltchanov]

Jan McDowell is looking for a rematch against Kenny Marchant in Texas 24th, which is a neighboring district to mine. Filed it on 3/1/2017, and has done such a bad job with publicity since she has like no funding, that I just found out about it today. It's in an R+9 district in suburban DFW, with a popular and well known and entrenched incumbent. Marchant won 56-39 in 2016. And Drumpft won it 51-45.

Nothing to see here folks...

Absolutely. There are better (for Democrats) districts even in Texas. Of course - if they will not run "bold progressives" (aka "left wing tea party") in every possible districts.

[smoltchanov]

Paging Technocratic Timmy:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/24/1683339/-Morning-Digest-How-California-s-top-two-primary-could-wind-up-saving-a-vulnerable-Republican

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I really wish they would just get rid of the top-two stuff already. Maybe even Republicans would be on board with that, given that it looks poised to lock them out of countless races in the future if their state party continues its implosion. Say what you will about whatever benefits top-two brings, but a party should not be locked out of a general election just because swarms of their candidates diluted the vote so much that allowed two opposition members to go forward against each other.

Why not? Idiotism must be punished. And failure to guarantee as much candidates as needed for having best chances to win is an idiotism.

[smoltchanov]

State Rep. Tom Patton (R) has announced for OH-16 which is being vacated by Jim Renacci in hopes of running for Governor.

Active unionist and active pro-lifer..... Interesting combination, and not so rare in Midwest...

[smoltchanov]

Democrat average leads:

RCP: +8.9

Fivethirtyeight: +10.2

This is enough to flip the house.

Not sure. The swing will be nonuniform - first, and many republican congressmembers may be able to put enough distance between themselves and Trump to get reelected in their (usually rather strong Republican downballot) districts - second. No one knows the state of economy before election - third. If such numbers will exist in late October next year - i will be more confident (though even then - not 100% confident)

[smoltchanov]

Hottinger's out. Won't run for Tiberi's seat.

IIRC, Hottinger is very conservative. So - relatively good news.

[smoltchanov]

I know this is a little late but I think that Phillip Price in North Carolina's 11th district should get some attention. He's challenging Mark Meadows so that should make him noticeable enough. I think Price is a great fit for Western North Carolina, he's a progressive who has deep roots in Western North Carolina. I honestly thing if Phillip Price can't win the 11th then no Democrat can.

He has 0 chance of defeating Meadows who has a lot of money himself and in fundraising with conservative groups. The district is also R +14

I think a lot can be said for grassroots support I think Price will have a chance because Meadows isn't expecting a significant challenge. I think its very unlikely he wins but I think this candidate and this national climate would be the best chance for a Democrat to win. Since redistricting is a possibility for the 11th the district could look a little bit more like Heath Shuler's version of the 11th.

If you would run Heath Shuler himself (or a candidate with his views) - i could believe in his chances.  A "progressive" in THIS district? I immediately lose all interest.

[smoltchanov]

All of these news breaking out is like dominoes falling on each other at a rapid pace.

Every politician has enemies. Now everyone will be under microscope - his/her enemies will look over all his/her previous life in hope of digging out "something": whom he/she may kissed "inappropriately", whose ass he/she slapped 30 years ago, and so on. Idiocy, pure and simple. But - funny idiocy.

[smoltchanov]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

[smoltchanov]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

Exceptions exist, and incumbents generally stay, but winning an open primary is a different ballgame. For every white congressman from Memphis, there’s 5 more black representatives from inner city Atlanta, Detroit, Black Belt, etc.

Nevertheless - exceptions EXIST. Why this can't be one of them??

[smoltchanov]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

Exceptions exist, and incumbents generally stay, but winning an open primary is a different ballgame. For every white congressman from Memphis, there’s 5 more black representatives from inner city Atlanta, Detroit, Black Belt, etc.

Nevertheless - exceptions EXIST. Why this can't be one of them??

They’re called exceptions because they don’t happen often. The district is 70% Hispanic and 15% white, the shots of a white candidate winning the Democratic nomination in a seat like this are fairly low, unless they’re an incumbent. Just like how one wouldn’t expect a black guy to win the Republican primary in Montana or what not, it could happen, just unlikely with modern voting habits.

Green won in Hispanic district in 1992 when it was open. Defeating hispanics candidates. I remember Black candidate winning state Senate district in Mississippi, which was more then 90% white. And, vice versa: at least 4-5 majority Black state legislative districts elect white legislators in Louisiana, some - in Mississippi, and so on. Personally i absolutely don't care about candidate's race: for me it's best when distric elects "best possible candidate:. And if so - i don't care whether it's he or she, straight or gay/lesbian/trangender, white or black, hispanics, asian or native american. And so on. If congressmen reflects distict views - everything is ok and no "correction" is required.

[smoltchanov]

Kansas Dem Andrea Ramsey, accused of sexual harassment, will drop out of US House race

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That's too bad, if only male candidates/elected officials were more willing to step aside like her. Looking at you, Kihuen..

Why must he if he doesn't feel guilty? Try to primary him - that's your right, but you can't DEMAND his resignation. It all becomes more and more idiotic...

[smoltchanov]

Kansas Dem Andrea Ramsey, accused of sexual harassment, will drop out of US House race

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's too bad, if only male candidates/elected officials were more willing to step aside like her. Looking at you, Kihuen..

Why must he if he doesn't feel guilty? Try to primary him - that's your right, but you can't DEMAND his resignation. It all becomes more and more idiotic...

Finally someone agrees with me, why is their no more “innocent until proven guilty” in this country. Whenever people feel they can get a political hit on someone they make up crap and throw it at them and everyone is Spose to believe them. Well I for one refuse to believe anyone’s Outlandish claims unless their backed up by irrefutable evidence because that’s how Democratic society’s are spose to function. Their are not spose to be any god damn Salem which trials or Mccarthyist red scares anymore that crap is spose to be relagated to history books and third world countries today.

Yeah all those inappropriate text messages are totally crap and faked

Present them in COURT. Only court may decide who is guilty and who is not. Not "public opinion". As i said above - primary him if you wish. But you have NO right to DEMAND his resignation and so on. Detailed inquiry must be first, decision - later. After all - why must i belive ALL these accusations as "bona fide truth"? Women not lie? They do, and frequently - better then men. They can't slander? They can, and frequently - better then men. They don't hold grudges, don't seek vengeance? They do, and more frequently then men. And so on. Let court (or, at least, commission of the House)  study accusations, and, if neccessary - establishes his guilt and metes proper punishment. Until THEN - person is not guilty, and everything else may be termed as witchhunt and McCarthy tactics.

[smoltchanov]

Kansas Dem Andrea Ramsey, accused of sexual harassment, will drop out of US House race

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's too bad, if only male candidates/elected officials were more willing to step aside like her. Looking at you, Kihuen..

Why must he if he doesn't feel guilty? Try to primary him - that's your right, but you can't DEMAND his resignation. It all becomes more and more idiotic...

Finally someone agrees with me, why is their no more “innocent until proven guilty” in this country. Whenever people feel they can get a political hit on someone they make up crap and throw it at them and everyone is Spose to believe them. Well I for one refuse to believe anyone’s Outlandish claims unless their backed up by irrefutable evidence because that’s how Democratic society’s are spose to function. Their are not spose to be any god damn Salem which trials or Mccarthyist red scares anymore that crap is spose to be relagated to history books and third world countries today.

Yeah all those inappropriate text messages are totally crap and faked

Present them in COURT. Only court may decide who is guilty and who is not. Not "public opinion". As i said above - primary him if you wish. But you have NO right to DEMAND his resignation and so on. Detailed inquiry must be first, decision - later. After all - why must i belive ALL these accusations as "bona fide truth"? Women not lie? They do, and frequently - better then men. They can't slander? They can, and frequently - better then men. They don't hold grudges, don't seek vengeance? They do, and more frequently then men. And so on. Let court (or, at least, commission of the House)  study accusations, and, if neccessary - establishes his guilt and metes proper punishment. Until THEN - person is not guilty, and everything else may be termed as witchhunt and McCarthy tactics.

You have no right to DEMAND someone not make DEMANDS of resignation.

I demand that you prove that women sometimes lie in a court of law. Until you do, you have no right to make such slanderous statements.

See how silly you are?

I - silly? Idiot, you can't even imagine how silly are you. You are below an idiot level. Until you i thought it was imposiible. I know hundreds of cases in our Russian courts (many of them were later discussed on TV in details) where women killed, lied, slandered, accused of rape men, who refused to marry them after consensual sex, and so on. Sir, you are unique. World never had such pristine idiot before you.

P.S. I laughed reading about your "demand".  F**k yourself in the ass, Sir! Preferrably - with your own dick.