UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread

[Former President tack50]

Ok, my new prediction. It's almost the same as my last prediction though. Changed from Con+5 to Con+4 on the popular vote, and took 3 seats from the SNP and gave them to Labour (not like I think Labour will get 4 Scottish seats, more like Con gains 3 in Scotland but loses more in England and Wales):

Con 320 (40%)
Lab 248 (36%)
Lib 10 (9%)

SNP 50 (4.5%)
Plaid 3 (0.5%)

Northern Ireland 18

UKIP 0 (3%)
Greens 1 (4%)

Conservatives short by 6

Theresa May (or if she resigns, her successor) stays in office thanks to the DUP, the UUP and the abstaining Sinn Fein MPs.

[FredLindq]

A Tory landslide!
Con 370 (44%)
Lab 200 (33%)
Lib 4 (8%)

SNP 55 (4.9%)
Plaid 2 (0.6%)

Northern Ireland 18

UKIP 0 (5%)
Greens 1 (4%)

[jaichind]

My final final guess for GB

CON   44.1%    345 seats  (includes Speaker)
LAB    36.6%    230 seats
LIB       8.1%       3 seats
UKIP     3.2%       0 seats
Greens  1.7%       1 seats
SNP      4.1%     50 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats

May will most likely not last long after the election and Corbyn will be around for a while.

[thumb21]

Party - Percentage of votes - Seats - Colour on the map:
Conservative - 46% - 367 - Blue
Labour - 34% - 204 - Red
Liberal - 8% - 11 - Light Orange
Scottish Nationalists - 4% - 45 - Yellow
UKIP - 3% - 0 - N/A
Green - 2% - 1 - Green

My final prediction

[mvd10]

Final prediction

Conservatives 44%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrats 8%
SNP 4%
UKIP 2%
Green 2%


Seats:

Conservatives 343
Labour 229
Liberal Democrats 6
SNP 48
UKIP 0
Green 1
Others 23

[Tender Branson]

Beautiful map.

But what is that white area northwest of London ?

[thumb21]

Beautiful map.

But what is that white area northwest of London ?

Thanks!

It is Buckingham which is the seat of the Speaker.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Beautiful map.

But what is that white area northwest of London ?

That's the Speaker's seat.

[Tender Branson]

Thx.

Shouldn't the Speaker seat be blue as well ?

[kyc0705]

Thx.

Shouldn't the Speaker seat be blue as well ?

I think the speaker is supposed to be an independent (i.e. leave whatever party they were in beforehand.)

[Clyde1998]

GB
Con - 342
Lab - 228
SNP - 46
Lib - 11
Plaid - 3
Grn - 1
Oth - 1

NI
DUP - 7
SF - 5
SDLP - 3
UUP - 1
APNI - 1
Oth - 1

[Matty]

So when should we start hearing some legit chatter?

[IceAgeComing]

Speaker is non-party: elected by secret ballot by MPs (not usually by party line - indeed Bercow has always been supported more by Labour MPs) and once they leave the position (by choice unless they've screwed up massively) then they get a peerage and become a cross-bench peer.  That's the precedent, at least!

e: first useful stuff is the Exit poll at 10; most of the chat until the first results is rubbish

[Classic Conservative]

WRONG THREAD EVERYBODY

[alomas]

GB
Con - 340
Lab - 229
SNP - 47
Lib - 11
Plaid - 3
Grn - 1
Oth - 1

[mgop]

so what did most of you said? tories 400, labour 190 this forum is really full of idiots...

[Classic Conservative]

so what did most of you said? tories 400, labour 190 this forum is really full of idiots...

*Americans

[Silent Hunter]

so what did most of you said? tories 400, labour 190 this forum is really full of idiots...

I really hope that doesn't end being the new "I accept my accolades"...

[Pericles]

Well(thankfully), there's egg on my face tonight. Did anyone get it right?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love being wrong.

[Tender Branson]

At least I got the turnout figure right.

But I thought former UKIPers would break strongly for the Tories, which they didn't.

Plus some older rural voters were probably scared by May's care u-turn and more young people voted as well.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Final Adjusted prediction (Warning: going out on a major limb here, probably gonna be wrong)

Tories - 405
Labour - 167
SNP - 48
Lib Dems - 7
PC - 4
Greens - 1

Northern Ireland Seats:
DUP - 10
Sinn Fein - 4
SDLP - 3
Independent - 1

Well I got cucked by Corbyn but ayee got DUP right

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Conservatives - 319, 41%
Labour - 256, 39%
SNP - 46, 4%
Lib Dems - 6, 7%
PC - 3, 0.5%
Greens - 1, 2%

Northern Ireland guess: 8 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 independent (Hermon). UKIP gets around 4% but no seats. Eventual result is a Conservative minority government, propped up by Arlene Foster. God help us all.

Also serious props looks like this will basically be dead on

[Former President tack50]

Ok, my new prediction. It's almost the same as my last prediction though. Changed from Con+5 to Con+4 on the popular vote, and took 3 seats from the SNP and gave them to Labour (not like I think Labour will get 4 Scottish seats, more like Con gains 3 in Scotland but loses more in England and Wales):

Con 320 (40%)
Lab 248 (36%)
Lib 10 (9%)

SNP 50 (4.5%)
Plaid 3 (0.5%)

Northern Ireland 18

UKIP 0 (3%)
Greens 1 (4%)

Conservatives short by 6

Theresa May (or if she resigns, her successor) stays in office thanks to the DUP, the UUP and the abstaining Sinn Fein MPs.

Well, I did get the Conservatives almost perfectly.

The Lib Dems and Labour aren't too far off either, I did overestimate the SNP by a lot though.

[Shadows]

Predictions -

Con - 319 (-11)
Lab - 250 (+21)
SNP - 49 (-7)
Lib-Dem - 5 (-3)

Tory government with unionist support !

Roughly got it right. SNP does worse & Lib-Dem & Lab got a little more than my prediction.

But I got exact 319 Tory seats + DUP coalition government right ! Yay !