UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread

[Barnes]

Remember that it looks as if UKIP are only going to field candidates in, at most, half of all seats. So on present polls they'd only get 2-4%. Unless the pollsters are accounting for that fact, which I don't believe is the case.

Good point. Are the Greens running candidates in every seat this time ?

Of course, no party runs candidates in every seat.

The Greens could only get about half of a full list in 2010, but the combined numbers of the England & Wales, Scottish, and Ulster parties got that number up to 575 in 2015. The main reason parties can't contest most seats is usually strictly financial and lack of organization in that area. The political machinations are usually invented as a convenient cover.

[LabourJersey]

To all the British posters: How low do you think UKIP will crash in this election in terms of the general vote?

[IceAgeComing]

I don't know whether my local branch are standing anyone: we've been focusing on the locals (since we have a chance of electing a few councillors) and after that I think there'll be a decision.  There's an outside shot of a Tory winning here but its not one of the top targets; although at current polling who really knows...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So I just found this really cool website that allows you to make a detailed prediction map, complete with seat changes, vote shift, pv outcomes, etc. by putting in your predicted PV total for each region. Check it out

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=predictit

[LabourJersey]

Tories 391 seats (+61), ~46%
Labour 170 seats (-62), ~26%
SNP 56 seats (-) [SNP gains Edinburgh South to added extra humiliation to Labour, and lose some marginal to the Tories]
Lib Dems 12 seats (+4), ~11%
Greens 2 seats, ~4.5% [I boldly predict they gain Bristol West]
UKIP 0 seats, ~4%

[Silent Hunter]

Labour will increase their vote share over 2015, but lose seats.

[JA]

46.4% | Conservative Party
33.5% | Labour Party
07.8% | Liberal Democrats
04.3% | Scottish National Party
03.0% | UK Independence Party
02.3% | Green Party
02.7% | Others

[OSR stands with Israel]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=49.3&LAB=28.1&UKIP=5&LD=10&GRN=3

Conservatives 400 Seats(49.3%)
Labour 167 Seats(28.3%)
SNP 54 Seats(4.85%)
Lib Dems 6 seats (10%)

[Phony Moderate]

SNP 56 seats (-) [SNP gains Edinburgh South to added extra humiliation to Labour, and lose some marginal to the Tories]

Most of the Tory prospects in Scotland are not marginal at the moment.

[jaichind]

My best guess for GB right now would be

CON   48.9%    395 seats
LAB    30.1%    177 seats
LIB       9.8%       7 seats
UKIP     3.4%       0 seats
Greens  2.1%       1 seats
SNP      4.2%     49 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats

[bore]

SNP 56 seats (-) [SNP gains Edinburgh South to added extra humiliation to Labour, and lose some marginal to the Tories]

Most of the Tory prospects in Scotland are not marginal at the moment.

Given the extreme volatility of Scottish politics over the last decade, I'm not sure any seat except for maybe orkney and shetland can be described as truly non marginal. In an environment where 20, 30, 40 point swings can happen at every election then everything is marginal.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Conservatives: 402-410 seats
Labour: 150-170 seats
LDem: 7 seats
Green: 1 seat
UKIP: 0

[jaichind]

Update guess from me BEFORE the terror attack is taken into account

My best guess for GB right now would be

CON   47.5%    378 seats
LAB    32.9%    195 seats
LIB       8.8%       5 seats
UKIP     3.0%       0 seats
Greens  2.1%       1 seats
SNP      4.2%     50 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Gonna give my hottake now (while polls aren't looking as good) that Tories will get at least 375 seats, anything less can be seen as a bad result for them.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Based on a seat by seat analysis, and a feeling that the final result will probably be a swing of around 3%-4% to the Conservatives, I got:

C 363 incl. Bercow
Lab 202
SNP 50
LD 12
PC 4
Grn 1
NI 18

[jaichind]

My best guess for GB right now would be

CON   46.0%    358 seats
LAB    34.6%    216 seats
LIB       8.2%       5 seats
UKIP     3.2%       0 seats
Greens  1.9%       1 seats
SNP      4.2%     49 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats

[Former President tack50]

Ok, I'll take the risk:

Con 320 (40%)
Lab 245 (35%)
Lib 10 (10%)

SNP 53 (4.5%)
Plaid 3 (0.5%)

Northern Ireland 18

UKIP 0 (3%)
Greens 1 (4%)

Conservatives short by 6

Theresa May (or if she resigns, her successor) stays in office thanks to the DUP, the UUP and the abstaining Sinn Fein MPs.

[Blair]

I'm actually looking forward to David Davis becoming PM.

JC going to the TV debate tonight; which means I'll probably watch it for about 5 minutes before doing what most normal people do and turn over to corrie

[The Other Castro]

For GB:

Con: 347
Lab: 223
Lib Dem: 7
SNP: 51
Green: 1
PC: 3

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Nationwide Results

Con 330 seats 41.8%
Lab 242 seats 36.5%
LibDem 9 seats 7.6%
SNP 46 seats 4%
UKIP 0 seats 3.9%
Green 1 seat 2.5%
PC 3 seats 0.6%

NI 18 seats (duh) 2%

Other 1 seat 1.1% (Bercow)

Very narrow Tory majority (yes, I did say 330 on purpose)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Prediction:
Tories - 385
Labour - 184
SNP - 50
Lib Dems - 7
PC - 4
Greens - 2
Northern Ireland Seats - 18

[kyc0705]

Prediction:
Tories - 385
Labour - 180
SNP - 50
DUP - 8
Lib Dems - 7
Greens - 2
Northern Ireland Seats - 18

The DUP should be in the 18 NI seat count.

[parochial boy]

Tories scrape a majority/miss by a handful of seats but enough to form a minority government

May's credibility is mortally wounded, she is forced out and replaced by either Amber Rudd or David Davis by then end of this year.

New leader calls another election in 2018, to try and gain their own mandate, part of which includes a promise on the Brexit deal.

So 2019 sees a referendum on the Brexit deal, which is accepted.

As a result, Scotland holds another IndyRef in 2020, in which it votes for independence, and causing yet another political crisis.

Which means another General Election in 2021.

The results of this GE are massively distorted, leading to an electoral reform referendum, which occurs in 2022.

As the reform is accepted, a GE is called to take place under the new system in 2023

By this time, the country is ready for a Brexit re-entry referendum, which takes place in 2024.

It never ends!

[Devout Centrist]

Gonna be bold and say narrow Conservative majority.

Update: Narrow CON majority or, if Labour's lucky, CON minority with Unionist support.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Tories 340-360
Labour 205-225
SNP 45-50
Northern Ireland parties 18
Lib Dems 7-12

I could be way off-base with my #analysis of the consequences of these results (in fact, I probably am), but I think May gains seats but the piss-poor performance relative to expectations a month ago fatally weakens her premiership and she's probably turfed out before the Brexit negotiations are complete, becoming the shortest-serving PM at least since Home and (if the knives come out immediately) possibly since MacDonald's first term.