UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread

[Thomas D]

It's somewhat odd to see so many american democrats here rooting for corbyn, who is far far to the left of the democratic party. May is left of even hillary on some issues, yet many people who voted for hillary are pulling for corbyn.

I'm only rooting for Corbyn because I like the Idea of someone saying:

"I'm going to win 400 seats easy. I'm going win by 25 points"

And then having them lose.   

[Lachi]

From last night:

Prediction, June 5th, 2017

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 22

Seat projections (GB):

CON: 335* (* not including speaker)
LAB: 237
SNP: 46
LIB: 10
GRN: 1
PC: 3

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8
SF: 5
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
IND: 1

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

I think it will be very close....

Conservatives will probably lose about 45 seats and labor may gain about the same....

So 295 for cons, 275 for Labor

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I saw a model that has UKIP gaining up a seat? What happened there (I assume in Thurrock? I dunno)? The party has collapsed spectacularly, I'd be surprised if they actually hit 4% much less win a seat anywhere.

[Lachi]

I saw a model that has UKIP gaining up a seat? What happened there (I assume in Thurrock? I dunno)? The party has collapsed spectacularly, I'd be surprised if they actually hit 4% much less win a seat anywhere.

The model I'm seeing has UKIP in 3rd, at 21%. It also has Labour picking up the seat by a margin of 49 votes.

[Pericles]

Electoral Calculus's results on if the local election results were replicated in the general election.

I understand that the local elections are a rough gauge of the national vote, and that EC is not fully reliable either. However, if the polling is ignored and the fundamentals of the race are what the predictions are based on, the results would probably look something like this. This is a Tory majority of 118 seats.

[warandwar]

Electoral Calculus's results on if the local election results were replicated in the general election.

I understand that the local elections are a rough gauge of the national vote, and that EC is not fully reliable either. However, if the polling is ignored and the fundamentals of the race are what the predictions are based on, the results would probably look something like this. This is a Tory majority of 118 seats.

Those classic fundamentals: assuming nothing happened in the past month at all and that campaigns are irrelevant....

[Pericles]

Electoral Calculus's results on if the local election results were replicated in the general election.

I understand that the local elections are a rough gauge of the national vote, and that EC is not fully reliable either. However, if the polling is ignored and the fundamentals of the race are what the predictions are based on, the results would probably look something like this. This is a Tory majority of 118 seats.

Those classic fundamentals: assuming nothing happened in the past month at all and that campaigns are irrelevant....

Perhaps campaigns have an impact on the margins but it'd have to have  one hell of an impact to make up that difference. And given what happened to Cleggmania and Milifandom the Corbyn surge will probably be  just another nothing burger. .

[JerryArkansas]

Electoral Calculus's results on if the local election results were replicated in the general election.

I understand that the local elections are a rough gauge of the national vote, and that EC is not fully reliable either. However, if the polling is ignored and the fundamentals of the race are what the predictions are based on, the results would probably look something like this. This is a Tory majority of 118 seats.

Could you reupload that image to the Atlas site, those of us who don't have Alternatehistory accounts can't see it.

[Klartext89]

Tory: 350 Seats
Labour: 218
SNP: 47
LIB: 13
GRN: 1
PC: 3

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8
SF: 5
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
IND: 1

[136or142]

It's somewhat odd to see so many american democrats here rooting for corbyn, who is far far to the left of the democratic party. May is left of even hillary on some issues, yet many people who voted for hillary are pulling for corbyn.

I'm only rooting for Corbyn because I like the Idea of someone saying:

"I'm going to win 400 seats easy. I'm going win by 25 points"

And then having them lose.   

From the discussions I saw on Tegan Goddard's Political Wire on the U.K elections,  most Democrats there said from what they saw of the U.K election Theresa May just struck them as a very nasty and cynical person and, in contrast, Corbyn at least seemed to be genuine.

[Bacon King]

Tory: 293
Labour: 278
SNP: 53
Plaid: 3
Lib Dem: 3
Green: 1
Speaker: 1

DUP: 7
SF: 5
SDLP: 3
UUP: 1
Alliance: 1
independent: 1

[jaichind]

My best guess for GB right now would be

CON   44.8%    350 seats
LAB    36.5%    223 seats
LIB       8.2%       5 seats
UKIP     3.1%       0 seats
Greens  1.7%       1 seats
SNP      4.1%     50 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats

[SunSt0rm]

My guess

Con 357
Lab 216
SNP 45
Lib 9
PC 3
Greens 1
Speaker 1

DUP: 8
SF 5
SDLP 3
Alliance 1
Indepedent 1

[Pericles]

Electoral Calculus's results on if the local election results were replicated in the general election.

I understand that the local elections are a rough gauge of the national vote, and that EC is not fully reliable either. However, if the polling is ignored and the fundamentals of the race are what the predictions are based on, the results would probably look something like this. This is a Tory majority of 118 seats.

Could you reupload that image to the Atlas site, those of us who don't have Alternatehistory accounts can't see it.

I can't right now but I will do so when I can. It gives the Tories 384 seats and Labour 187.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New prediction since a lot have changed since my last one...


Conservatives - 44% - 349 seats (+19)
Labour - 35% - 223 seats (-9)
LibDem - 7% - 8 seats (+/-)
UKIP - 5% - 0 seats (-1)
SNP - 4% - 47 seats (-9)
Greens - 2% - 1 seat (+/-)
Plaid Cymru - <1% - 3 seats (+/-)

[EnglishPete]

My best guess

Conservatives 400 (inc Speaker)
Labour 175
SNP 47
Lib Dem 6
Plaid 4
Green 0
UKIP 0

NI Parties 18

[Shadows]

Predictions -

Con - 319 (-11)
Lab - 250 (+21)
SNP - 49 (-7)
Lib-Dem - 5 (-3)

Tory government with unionist support !

[Talleyrand]

It'll be a blowout.

CON   46.7%    401 seats
LAB    34.6%    181 seats
LIB       7.1%       4 seats
UKIP     3.9%       0 seats
Greens  1.9%       0 seats
SNP      4.2%     43 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Conservatives will walk away with anywhere from 350 to 375 seats.

[SPQR]

Tried to play around with some prediction websites, this is what I got once considering swings by region and the likes... (GB only)

Tories 45,8% - 358 seats
Labour 34% - 214 seats
Lib Dems 9% - 10 seats
SNP 3,9% - 45 seats
UKIP 3,6% - 0 seats
Green 2,2% - 1 seat
Others 0,9% - 1 seat
Plaid Cymru 0,7% - 3 seats

[Tender Branson]

I'll stick with my prediction of Tories+14% and +168 seats over Labour.

Labour usually always overpolls by a bit while the Tories underpoll.

Don't see why this shouldn't be the case tomorrow again ...

[kyc0705]

Final prediction (via PrincipalFish's calculator):

Conservative (43.2%): 347 seats
Labour (35.2%): 228 seats
Scottish Nat'l (3.7%): 44 seats
Liberal Democrats (8.2%): 7 seats
Plaid Cymru (0.7%): 4 seats
Green (2.0%): 1 seat
—
Northern Ireland: 18 seats
Speaker: 1 seat

Outcome: Conservative majority of 43

[DavidB.]

I don't feel comfortable about this. The Tories are probably going to win a majority and I always worry too much about other counties' elections, but May doesn't have a big enough lead. At this point I think the result will look like very much like 2015 in terms of seats.

Conservative 42%, 315-350 seats
Labour 37%, 210-250 seats
Lib Dem 7%, 6-10 seats
UKIP 4%, 0 seats
SNP 4%, 40-50 seats
Green 2%, 1 seat
Plaid 0.5%, 3 seats

[CMB222]

Final Prediction:

Con - 363 (inc. speaker)
Lab - 213
SNP - 47
Lib Dem - 5
PC - 3
Green - 1
NI - 18