What is more likely to be overturned by the Supreme Court within a decade

[Medal506]

My prediction is Ginsburg or Kennedy will step down by 2019 giving Trump another vacancy which would tilt the Supreme Court 5-4 conservative. If Donald Trump is re elected in 2020 then he will likely get another two vacancies on the Supreme Court possibly even 3 if Thomas decides to retire which would make the Supreme Court 6-3 or 7-2 conservative. My prediction is Obergefell v Hodges will be overturned by 2025.

[anthonyjg]

I doubt that either will happen, but probably Roe V. Wade as abortion is currently a more controversial issue than gay marriage.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This isn't even a question.  Even the most conservative courts would probably ignore a full rehearing of Obergefell, but they might entertain allowing individual judges or counties to abstain from partaking in gay weddings (and would certainly side with florists, bakers, and the like).  On the other hand, while I am somewhat concerned about Roberts's vote, overturning Roe is a common promise on the right today and the votes could theoretically be there by the end of 2017.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I doubt that either will happen, but probably Roe V. Wade as abortion is currently a more controversial issue than gay marriage.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

I doubt that either will happen, but probably Roe V. Wade as abortion is currently a more controversial issue than gay marriage.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Unless you just crawled out of a cave you entered several years ago, it's obviously option 1.

[TheSaint250]

Neither

[Tartarus Sauce]

Neither

[Ichabod]

This isn't even a question.  Even the most conservative courts would probably ignore a full rehearing of Obergefell, but they might entertain allowing individual judges or counties to abstain from partaking in gay weddings (and would certainly side with florists, bakers, and the like).  On the other hand, while I am somewhat concerned about Roberts's vote, overturning Roe is a common promise on the right today and the votes could theoretically be there by the end of 2017.

People believed votes actually are to overturn Roe v. Wade in 1992, but it didn't happen.

[tallguy23]

Neither but Roe is more likely.

Many people still view abortion as murder. Even if they might disagree with same-sex marriage, they don't believe it's led to any loss of life.

[MarkD]

Neither but Roe is more likely.

Many people still view abortion as murder. Even if they might disagree with same-sex marriage, they don't believe it's led to any loss of life.

The only things that have been lost by people who oppose same-sex marriage is: 1) their presumption of their moral superiority, and 2) a  basically rational, though flimsy, connection between the concepts of marriage and reproduction.

Be that as it may, this question is about the likelihood of the Supreme Court overturning ITS decisions on these two topics, and so public opinion of abortion and same-sex marriage is hardly relevant. Are Ginsburg or any other liberal Justices going to leave the bench in the next 3.5 years? Is Kennedy, the perpetual swing vote? And when a vacancy occurs, what is the likelihood that Trump will fulfill his campaign promise -- to appoint people with "a conservative bent"?

[Spark]

Roe v. Wade

[Redefeatbush04]

 Roe v. wade has more of a case for getting overturned, granted not a very good one. The right to privacy is not the only issue being weighed as their is also the question of the rights of the unborn fetus. I believe that viability outside of the womb is a decent enough measure of whether or not rights are to be given. Abortion is one of the only issues i have changed my mind over. I used to be weakly pro-life until around 2006. I am now strongly pro-choice. Obergefell is not going to get overturned. It is a (mostly) settled issue with regards to public opinion and the government should not be involved in regulating a religious issue such as marriage in the first place.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Obergefell is harder to overturn and it doesn't really have to do with it being settled in public opinion.  It has to do with it being extremely socially disruptive to nullify the relationships created by same sex marriage.  It's possible the reasoning of Obergefell could be overturned to a large extent, but legal recognition of SSM itself is very unlikely to go away apart from some broader radical shift in our political and legal institutions.