Posts that are crazy with hindsight (user search)
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  Posts that are crazy with hindsight (search mode)
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Author Topic: Posts that are crazy with hindsight  (Read 2621 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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Posts: 30,307
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« on: April 21, 2017, 03:53:38 PM »

Most posts in these threads:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=223324.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233338.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=246151.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247983.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247612.0 (even I underestimated Johnson here)

Aaaaand...

So...

NH: D+2 = Safe D, nothing to see here.
AZ: R+4 or less = Safe R, nothing to see here. AZ polls should never be trusted.
NV: D+2 = Toss-Up! Totally winnable for Republicans! NV polls should totally be trusted!
WI: D+7 (or more) = Toss-Up maybe Tilt D at the most! Republicans can totally win here!

Got it.

But you were mostly right regarding NV, so I'll give you that. Wink


See: context. ("How many terms will Maggie Hassan serve as Senator?")

Mods, I thought we stopped editorializing titles? Leave your (garbage) trolling out of the titles TNVol.

Fixed, but not surprised to see you believing a poll that shows Clinton and Trump basically tied in NH.
Suffolk isn't really that junk. In any case it shows Ayotte overperforming Trump by a considerable margin, which is quite consistent with most polls.

Oops.

B-b-b-but WI must be a toss-up because it was so close in 2000 and 2004 and muh home boy Walker and THREE TIMES IN FOUR YEARS!!!

Tongue Just posting this here because you seem to have a weird obsession with WI. Not healthy, man.

But I think this one is hard to top:  

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=220621.0

You're really going to argue that I have unhealthy obsessions, Mr. VA and NH are Titanium D? Tongue

Yes, I was wrong about Wisconsin before the election, but it wasn't crazy to think Hillary was favored, given the polling and Obama's performance there. I maintain that had Hillary not taken the state for granted, she probably would have won there, albeit narrowly. Still, I'll acknowledge that it's a swing state now, whereas some people seem convinced that it's suddenly deep red and unwinnable for Democrats, and that's much sillier than anything I said prior to the election. Btw, where are your posts about Hillary winning NH by more than ME, or even VT? Wink
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