France 2017: Results Thread

[parochial boy]

Tribune de Genève are also leaking some alleged scores. Definitely interesting

[parochial boy]

I wonder whether those leaked exit polls are true or just sh**tty clickbait. 

Almost certainly the latter - but was very good business for TdG given their servers crashed

[parochial boy]

Anyone know which communes are likely to report first?

[parochial boy]

macron and Le Pen...

Fillon and Melenchon fighting for 3rd

[parochial boy]

So are the place set or can Le Pen and Macron go back and forth for 1st tonight and Fillon and Melenchon go back and forth for 3rd?

Historically the first estimate has been very accurate - if they're confidently predicting Macron over Le Pen, it is probably the case. Fillon v Melenchon could go either way

[parochial boy]

But muh poll herding

That was such a joke. American polling sites need to stay out of European elections. 538 also though the UK 2015 election would see the birth of a six party system. Lol.

Yes.

Worth noting that this is potentially a fantastic result for NDA

[parochial boy]

France 24 said some polling institutes have Le Pen and Macron tied.  Which ones do?

Kantar-Sofres for TF1 (the other main TV channel in France)

[parochial boy]

LFA spokeswoman on France 2 claims Mélenchon can still make it through the big city vote. Of course that's bullsh*t.

Are the exit polls that precise? Only 2 points seperate the JLM and Le Pen in some exit polls.

8pm projections are usually spot on.

The France Insoumise lady did point out that Le Pen was estimated at 20% to start with in 2012, and ended up under 18%

[parochial boy]

LFA spokeswoman on France 2 claims Mélenchon can still make it through the big city vote. Of course that's bullsh*t.

Are the exit polls that precise? Only 2 points seperate the JLM and Le Pen in some exit polls.

They are estimates based on key votes in the rural areas, not an exit poll

Not just rural, but all areas of France, including his so-called strongholds in big city's.

Not possible, given the big cities only finished voting at 8

[parochial boy]

Les Champs-Géraux voted Mélenchon. Hero town

[parochial boy]

brittany - macronistan

Well, we knew that was coming

[parochial boy]

So what's the deal with Le Pen supporters in the Pacific Islands? White people I assume?

What are Le Pen's thoughts on the natives in those places voting and having French citizenship?

One of the major political dynamics in Nouvelle-Caledonie is the tension between the indigenous Kanaky, who tend to be pro-independence; and the white settlers (for want of a better word), who are solidly conservative, and very opposed to independence.

Not in the pacific, but Guyane's strong Le Pen vote is probably as a result of the huge level of immigration (illegal mainly) from Haiti and Brazil; which is part of the larger plethora of concerns that have been causing the protest there.

[parochial boy]

Isère's north-south divide is always astonishing

[parochial boy]

Weirdly, Lassalle has won a couple of communes on Corse-Sud (and tied with Fillon in a third), which are obviously well outside of the Bearnais/Basque areas. Anyone have any idea why?

Is Lassalle specifically a Basque candidate?

From the Béarn, which is broadly speaking the inland area of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques

[parochial boy]

Le Pen - Savoy is split with Fillon taking north and Macron taking south.

Slight point of interest, both Savoies voted for Le Pen senior in 2002

[parochial boy]

Immigrants to Paris don't classically live within Paris itself (and where they are within Paris is mostly the North-East, 18th/19th/20th arrondissements).

Vendée has voted for Macron

[parochial boy]

I noticed that in Mayotte, with is 97% Muslim, Fillon wins with 33% and Le Pen is second with 27%. Also voted very right-wing in 2012 as well.

They don't like migrants coming over from the Comoros.

Also, Mayotte was basically created by putting all the anti-independence supporters on one island when Comoros became independent.

[parochial boy]

I noticed that in Mayotte, with is 97% Muslim, Fillon wins with 33% and Le Pen is second with 27%. Also voted very right-wing in 2012 as well.

They don't like migrants coming over from the Comoros.

Also, Mayotte was basically created by putting all the anti-independence supporters on one island when Comoros became independent.

Anyone know whether Le Pen considers the French citizens on Mayotte to be truly "French" or not?

She actually visited Mayotte during the campaign, so she does seem to consider them as real citizens (although, who knows what she thinks in private).

Her niece, however, seems to have some issues with Mayotte being truly "French".

[parochial boy]

   So which parts of Paris would be considered the wealthiest? 

7th, 8th and 16th arrondissements

[parochial boy]

Is there an idea of how certain minority groups voted? French Muslims, French Jews, French Black people, etc?

Jews - usually a strong constituency for the right. They probably voted for Fillon in big numbers. The FN were doing well with Jews, although Le Pen probably lost support over the Vel d'Hiv comments. Macron probably lost support with Jews, who are largely of North African/pied noir descent, with his comments on Algeria being a "war crime", and the left are probably perceived as being too close to Muslims.

Muslims and blacks - overwhelmingly for Mélenchon and Macron (basically see the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and places like Vénissieux in the Rhône to get an idea.

Note that, in France, collecting data on ethnicity is illegal, so reliable figures are very hard to come by.

[parochial boy]

I suspect Le Pen should be able to break 40% in the second round and could even go as high as 42% despite what the polls might say now.

Why? Do you think she'll get more Fillon switchers than is expected?

[parochial boy]

I recall a bunch of people poo-pooing the idea that Hauts-de-Seine would be Fillon's best department in Metropolitan France... He didn't win it, but it was his best department after all, edging Sarthe, with 29.14% of the vote. Macron won it with 32.30%. (I predicted Yvelines as Fillon's best department, so I don't win prediction kudos on this one, either.)

Yeah, I poo-pooed both Sarthe and Hauts-de-Seine as his best. I guess I underestimated the home boy effect and just to what extent Auteil-Neuilly-Passy woukd stay with LR. Alpes Maritimes wasnt too far off though.

Dont think anyone expected Aisne to be Le Pen's best though

[parochial boy]

As far as I can tell, three departments which voted for Le Pen in the 2002 first round didn't vote for her this time round:

Haute-Savoie - went for Fillon
Savoie & Rhône - both went for Macron

By the looks of all three, you can get a pretty good picture of how the FN's support has changed even since 2002.

Savoie took me by surprise though, does anyone have an idea of why it voted so liberal? It has always been left of Haute-Savoie, but I expected that 74's economic dependence on Geneva and socially liberal Geneva suburbs would have meant it was the more likely of the two to vote for Macron.

[parochial boy]

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Any faction that is led by Mélenchon will not cooperate with the PS. The FdG originally broke up because of this. I think the fact that Hamon, who used to frequent the same PS wing as Mélenchon, ony managed to talk about a united front for two days says as much. Also, Mélenchon has realised his key error in 2012 was the assumption he was a PS sattelite the same way the old PCF became.

I read somewhere (Marianne, I think), that, in the light of both disasters both the PS and LR are basically going to try and ignore their presidential candidates for the legislatives. Seems like LR will try and rally around Baroin; and PS are hoping that either Cazeneuve orJean-Christophe Cambadélis will lead the charge.

So I would imagine it is pretty certain that both parties are going to hold it mostly together for the legislatives at least.

EELV and PRG are basically irrelevant as entities outside of the PS, but it's hard to imagine Taubira jumping on the Macron wagon

[parochial boy]

Since we all like discussing unusual political theories...





Discuss how the Angevin Empire affects current day French politics.

The Plantegenet's ruled both England and France.

Fillon is from the Sarthe, whose capital, Le Mans was the birth place of Henry II of England.

Fillon has a British wife and was attempting to implement a distinctly Anglo-Saxon brand of economic policies.

This has conpiracy written all over it.