2017 BC General Election Prediction thread

[Pragmatic Conservative]

With advanced voting starting today, and the general election 10 days away, it is a good time to begin making predictions.

I will keep track of user predictions in an excel file, and we can compare how everyone did after May 9th.

For those of you that may want a quick refresher on BC Politics I recommend
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2017 and
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252511.0
http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-votes-2017-a-look-at-the-issues-in-your-riding-1.4073152
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013


http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/bc-simulator-2017.html is a good seat projection simulator is here.

Predicted Items

Popular vote ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals: NDP: Greens: Other/Independents:

Seats ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals: NDP: Greens: Other/Independents:

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose.

Rural/Interior and Northern BC:
Skeena-
Boundary-Similkameen -
Penticton-
Cariboo North-
Fraser-Nicola-
Kamloops-North Thompson-

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission-
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows-
Surrey-Fleetwood-
Surrey-Guildford-
Delta North-
Burnaby-Lougheed-
Burnaby North-
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain-
Coquitlam-Maillardville-
Vancouver-Fraserview-
North Vancouver-Lonsdale-

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox-
Cowichan Valley-
Saanich North and the Islands-
Victoria-Beacon Hill-
Esquimalt-Metchosin-

Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed (excluding Delta North and Peace River North which will have retiring Independent MLA's):

Feel free to update your predictions anytime up until May 9th as many times as you want to.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Predicted Items

Popular vote ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals:38 NDP:40 Greens:19  Other/Independents:3

Seats ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals:39 NDP:45 Greens:3 Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose.

Rural/Interior and Northern BC:
Skeena- NDP
Boundary-Similkameen -BC Liberal
Penticton-NDP
Cariboo North-NDP
Fraser-Nicola-NDP
Kamloops-North Thompson- BC Liberal

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission-NDP
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows-NDP
Surrey-Fleetwood-NDP
Surrey-Guildford- NDP
Delta North-NDP
Burnaby-Lougheed-NDP
Burnaby North-NDP
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain-NDP
Coquitlam-Maillardville-NDP
Vancouver-Fraserview-NDP
North Vancouver-Lonsdale- NDP

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox- NDP
Cowichan Valley-  Green
Saanich North and the Islands- Green
Victoria-Beacon Hill- NDP
Esquimalt-Metchosin- NDP

[DL]

You left out two more battleground ridings:

Port Moody-Coquitlam
Surrey-panorama

[136or142]

If the Green Party get 20% of the vote (or so) in the provincial election, they would easily gain Saanich North and the Islands.  After that though, things get a bit harder to predict where they could gain.

Were it not for the NDP incumbents in the other urban areas of Southern Vancouver Island, I think the Greens would easily gain the two Victoria ridings and Saanich South, as it is, I would guess in descending order the most vulnerable New Democrats are Lana Popham, Rob Fleming and Carole James.

Given the Green Party performance in Cowichan Valley in 2013, I would also consider this riding to be a top tier opportunity for them.

The rest of Vancouver Island I gather is a bit trickier because the ridings are mostly a combination of tourist industry communities where the Green Party will likely do very well and resource industry communities where they will probably do less well.

In the rest of the province, the areas I would look at for the Greens are areas where the Federal Liberals traditionally do well but where the Federal NDP don't.  These are ridings where a lot of Federal Liberals who might not be all that disposed to the Christy Clark led B.C Liberals wouldn't necessarily look to voting NDP to vote their displeasure a the  B.C Liberal government.  These handful of ridings are even more so the case for the Greens where there are tourism related communities or environmentalists in general.

In these cases I would look at the North Shore ridings of North Vancouver-Seymour, West Vancouver-Sea to Sky and West Vancouver-Capilano.

In Vancouver the two ridings there are Vancouver-Quilchena and Vancouver-False Creek.  Quilchena could be interesting because the Liberal MLA, Andrew Wilkinson, is very similar to former Conservative M.P Chris Alexander, a person with a great resume but a major disappointment in elected politics and whose attack dog comments seem to regularly embarrass his constituents (to be sure, I doubt most British Columbians outside of Quilchena know who Wilkinson is, so, in that sense, he is much lower profile than Chris Alexander was, so the embarrassment level would be much lower.)

Vancouver-False Creek is interesting because the Green Party has definitely been making a play for votes from people in the technology sector.  I can't see the Liberal M.L.A Sam Sullivan losing here though.

Finally, there is Vancouver-Langara where the Greens are running high profile former Vancouver School Trustee Janet Fraser, however, this riding doesn't strike me as a good fit for the Green Party.  
I used to think that the main community in this riding, Marpole, was once a suburb of Vancouver (I'm pretty sure, for instance, Point Grey used to be a separate city) but I can't find any detail on that.

However, Marpole definitely has a suburban feel with a lot of single detached homes and strip malls, and the Green Party isn't that strong in most suburban Vancouver ridings. (Given this, it's also not a surprise the federal riding that Vancouver-Langara is in, Vancouver South, is the strongest riding for the Federal Conservative Party in the city of Vancouver.)

The Green Party is less strong in all of the suburbs of Vancouver other than on the North Shore and the only riding in the Interior and North they've traditionally been strong in is Nelson-Creston, but I think the NDP incumbent Michelle Mungall is too popular to lose there.

So, to sum up, I think the Green Party should win Saanich North and the Islands and probably Cowichan Valley on Vancouver Island, then the rest is more difficult for them.

And, I think they have a shot at winning three North Shore ridings and Vancouver-Quilchena and possibly (but not likely)  Vancouver-False Creek.

Other than that, I can see the Green Party getting 10-15% or so in a lot of Interior ridings, up to 25% in a lot of ridings in Vancouver, the Vancouver Suburbs and the Fraser Valley and up to 30% in the rest of Vancouver Island. So, a few 'close but just short' and a lot of 'moral victories' but very few actual wins.  Of course, that's what tends to happen when support is relatively evenly spread out with first past the post.

Edit: Marpole was a separate town at one time.
From Wiki: Non-natives began to inhabit the area in the 1860s, calling it Eburne Station. The small town was separated from the city by miles of forest.

At the turn of the 20th century, the Vancouver Lulu Island Railway of the British Columbia Electric Railway interurban train were constructed, which triggered the development of sawmills, shingle mills and gravel companies in the region. The area was renamed after Richard Marpole in 1916, and by the time it joined Vancouver in 1929, it had become one of the area's major industrial centres.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a cold and rainy morning here, and I've seen couple of bad polls this morning (dubious online non-probability based polls, but still), so I'm feeling down, and thus predicting doom and gloom:

Skeena- Liberal
Boundary-Similkameen - Liberal
Penticton- Liberal
Cariboo North- Liberal
Fraser-Nicola- Liberal
Kamloops-North Thompson- Liberal

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission- Liberal
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows- Liberal
Surrey-Fleetwood- Liberal
Surrey-Guildford- Liberal
Delta North- Liberal
Burnaby-Lougheed- NDP
Burnaby North- Liberal
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain- NDP
Coquitlam-Maillardville- NDP
Vancouver-Fraserview- NDP
North Vancouver-Lonsdale- Liberal

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox- Liberal
Cowichan Valley- Green
Saanich North and the Islands- Green
Victoria-Beacon Hill- NDP
Esquimalt-Metchosin- NDP

DL's suggestions:
Port Moody-Coquitlam - Liberal
Surrey-Panorama - Liberal

[136or142]

It's a cold and rainy morning here, and I've seen couple of bad polls this morning (dubious online non-probability based polls, but still), so I'm feeling down, and thus predicting doom and gloom:

Skeena- Liberal
Boundary-Similkameen - Liberal
Penticton- Liberal
Cariboo North- Liberal
Fraser-Nicola- Liberal
Kamloops-North Thompson- Liberal

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission- Liberal
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows- Liberal
Surrey-Fleetwood- Liberal
Surrey-Guildford- Liberal
Delta North- Liberal
Burnaby-Lougheed- NDP
Burnaby North- Liberal
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain- NDP
Coquitlam-Maillardville- NDP
Vancouver-Fraserview- NDP
North Vancouver-Lonsdale- Liberal

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox- Liberal
Cowichan Valley- Green
Saanich North and the Islands- Green
Victoria-Beacon Hill- NDP
Esquimalt-Metchosin- NDP

DL's suggestions:
Port Moody-Coquitlam - Liberal
Surrey-Panorama - Liberal

If this is the result, the B.C NDP needs to be dissolved.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a cold and rainy morning here, and I've seen couple of bad polls this morning (dubious online non-probability based polls, but still), so I'm feeling down, and thus predicting doom and gloom:

Skeena- Liberal
Boundary-Similkameen - Liberal
Penticton- Liberal
Cariboo North- Liberal
Fraser-Nicola- Liberal
Kamloops-North Thompson- Liberal

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission- Liberal
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows- Liberal
Surrey-Fleetwood- Liberal
Surrey-Guildford- Liberal
Delta North- Liberal
Burnaby-Lougheed- NDP
Burnaby North- Liberal
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain- NDP
Coquitlam-Maillardville- NDP
Vancouver-Fraserview- NDP
North Vancouver-Lonsdale- Liberal

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox- Liberal
Cowichan Valley- Green
Saanich North and the Islands- Green
Victoria-Beacon Hill- NDP
Esquimalt-Metchosin- NDP

DL's suggestions:
Port Moody-Coquitlam - Liberal
Surrey-Panorama - Liberal

If this is the result, the B.C NDP needs to be dissolved.

don't worry, I have the NDP picking up Vancouver-Fraserview!

[Lotuslander]

Now have enough data points in hand to predict the 2017 outcome.

Firstly, a very weird election. Really weird. Seems voters disengaged.

1. Worst lawn sign coverage that I have ever seen across Metro Vancouver inc. muni/prov/fed. Ever.

2. 2 days ago, Global BCTV news was at UBC asking students whether they knew an election was actually going on. Most stated no. Bizarre. And those that did know that an election was going on were unable to name any of the BC political party leaders.

3. Tonight, Bill Tieleman, former BC NDP strategist and long-time BC NDP insider, stated that he has never seen a BC election whereby voters are as disengaged in 2017 in his entire lifetime.

The BC NDP has several ridings in interior BC that are quite vulnerable for a myriad of reasons:

1. Skeena
2. Stikine;
3. Columbia River-Revelstoke

BC Lib leader has been in these ridings. NDP leader has been absent. As matter of fact, totally stunning that BC NDP leader has just made couple of short sojourns into BC interior in entire campaign - Cariboo and Kamloops. Nothing seen like this in many decades. Akin to throwing BC NDP interior candidates under bus.

BC NDP leader has mostly been in Metro Van swing ridings. Fair enough.

But last night BC Lib leader was in BC NDP held swing riding of Vancouver-Fairview within inner Van City. Forget about BC Lib swing riding of Vancouver-Fraserview.

In the dying days of the 2017 campaign, today, BC Lib leader on Van Isle... as well as tomorrow. BC NDP holds most of ridings on Van Isle. Tomorrow night, BC NDP leader holding townhall in Nanaimo - NDP has held this seat since 1972 (aside from 2001 debacle).

Remember, that as of tomorrow, Friday, 2013, BC Lib internal CATI daily riding tracking polls had already predicted "48 seats in the bag". BC Libs actually won 49 seats several days later on Tuesday e-day. Moreover, BC Lib provincial CATI daily tracking poll nailed the final BC voting result. As an aside, I have posted details of same early on in the BC Election thread.

Furthermore, one week before 2013 e-day, I had enough data points to confirm a BC Lib win of 43/85 seats. Just not enough data to confirm its extent (read: separate wheat from chaff).

More data points to corroborate my 2017 prediction outcome... but will not prolong my post.

2017 popular vote share:

BC Lib: 42%
BC NDP: 35%
BC Green: 20%
Other: 3%

... give or take a couple of points.

2017 seat share:

BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5

OK. I have stuck my neck out here. Anyone else? Or will I just hear crickets?

PS. Election 2013 was akin to BC election 1983 in terms of campaign dynamics. Election 2017 is very much akin to election 1969 in similar terms IMHO.

PPS. Just read Van Sun's Vaughn Palmer (known as the dean of the BC Legislature) column. Corroborates some, if not much, of my previous post:

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-campaign-stops-for-b-c-party-leaders-show-where-they-think-they-can-win

PPPS. BC media has also reported that the BC Libs have 5 x as many volunteers in 2017 compared to 2013. Moreover, BC media also reports that the BC Libs have more folk attending their 2017 campaign events compared to the BC NDP.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

(After seeing a bad trend in the polls, I am tempering my expectations. )
Updated Predicted Items

Popular vote ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals:41 NDP:38 Greens:18 Other/Independents:3

Seats ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals:52 NDP:32 Greens:3 Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose.

Rural/Interior and Northern BC:
Skeena- BC Liberal
Boundary-Similkameen -BC Liberal
Penticton- BC Liberal
Cariboo North- BC Liberal
Fraser-Nicola- BC Liberal
Kamloops-North Thompson- BC Liberal

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission- BC Liberal
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows- NDP
Surrey-Fleetwood- NDP
Surrey-Guildford- BC Liberal
Delta North- BC Liberal
Burnaby-Lougheed- NDP
Burnaby North- NDP
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain- BC Liberal
Coquitlam-Maillardville- NDP
Vancouver-Fraserview- BC Liberal
North Vancouver-Lonsdale- BC  Liberal
Port Moody-Coquitlam - BC Liberal
Surrey-Panorama - BC Liberal

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox- BC Liberal
Cowichan Valley-  Green
Saanich North and the Islands- Green
Victoria-Beacon Hill- NDP
Esquimalt-Metchosin- BC Liberal

Other predictions
Columbia River-Revelstoke goes Liberal.

[136or142]

Other predictions
Columbia River-Revelstoke goes Liberal.

I assume your prediction for Columbia River-Revelstoke is based on NDP candidate Gerry Taft being found guilty (in civil court) of defamation.  Gerry Taft strikes me as an extremely cynical political type.  At the age of 35 he has already been a municipal politician for 15 years and from what I read he sounds like the sort of politician that people who support term limits have in mind, and he hasn't even been elected to the legislature yet.

In regards to the substance of the case though, I suspect that defaming an extreme animal rights activist will probably, on balance, make Gerry Taft more popular in the riding and not less popular.

The Judge more or less said that Taft was more interested in using his time on the stand to make political statements than to defend his comments.  Had Taft been concerned about losing this case, I have no doubt he would have settled out of court.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Bump 24 hours to get your predictions in.

[Wisconsin+17]

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AuI6WIQ9avDHhz7pjcK9U9rO31ml

[Wisconsin+17]

https://1drv.ms/i/s!AuI6WIQ9avDHhz38oy1-sKTUSLsg

[Antonio the Sixth]

Libs will win, because this is BC.

[MAINEiac4434]

Libs: 36%
NDP: 33%
Greens: 25
Others (mostly Cons): 6

[136or142]

If I have time to do a riding by riding look, I may change my prediction slightly, but for now

Liberal 46
NDP 39
Green 2

Should the NDP lose a fifth election in a row, I hope they finally realize that they need more wholesale changes than just changing the leader.

Mainstreet Research said the public was more responsive to the B.C Liberals economic message (such as it was) than the NDP campaign of affordability (as only partially believable as it was.)  That the NDP campaigned as they did is a clear implicit acknowledgement that they know they have no credibility on jobs and the economy.

If they know they can't win an election by campaigning on the issue that most people are most concerned about in most elections, what use are they as the opposition party?

I've already proposed what they should do:
1.Separate the B.C NDP from the Federal NDP (which would allow people, mainly Federal Liberals, who don't want to join the Federal NDP in order to join the B.C NDP.)

2.Separate the remaining connections with the unions.  I have nothing against the union movement personally (especially private sector unions) but it's hard to argue against "can you imagine how the NDP would react if the B.C Liberals had a place on their party executive for the B.C Chamber of Commerce?)

Should that finally occur (and I know there would be fierce resistance from many individual NDP members and the interest groups that make up the NDP) I would recommend North Vancouver Federal Liberal M.P and former Saskatchewan NDP Premier Roy Romanow advisor Jonathan Wilkinson as leader for this party (rename it the Democratic Party or something)

[RogueBeaver]

Libs will win, because this is BC.

[Wisconsin+17]

I am altering my prediction.

Surrey-Fleetwood from NDP SAFE to LIB MARGINAL
Columbia-Revelstoke from NDP SAFE to NDP MARGINAL
Vancouver-Point Gray from NDP SAFE to NDP MARGINAL

[Wisconsin+17]

That will change my totals to 52 LIB 33 NDP 2 GRN

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ok Final Predictions (I kind of went bold this year not so much in the seat count but in how the seats are spread out, and yes the NDP will manage to win the popular vote but finish second in the seat count in a reverse 1996.)

Popular Vote
BC Liberal 40.75 NDP 41.25 Green 16.05 Other 2.95

Seats
BC Liberals 45 NDP 40 Green 2

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1h_jfUNraRicVc5RHBrc0lRRjk5RzA5M1VnNGdzRDhJRk1Z/view?usp=sharing

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

OK, who bumped a 4033 year old thread?

[Poirot]

Popular vote : BC Liberals: 41.5%  NDP: 40% Greens: 17% Other/Independents: 1.5%

Seats : BC Liberals: 48  NDP: 38 Greens: 1

Battle Ground riding predictions

Rural/Interior and Northern BC:
Skeena- LIB
Boundary-Similkameen - LIB
Penticton- LIB
Cariboo North- LIB
Fraser-Nicola- LIB
Kamloops-North Thompson- LIB

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission- LIB
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows- NDP
Surrey-Fleetwood- LIB
Surrey-Guildford- NDP
Delta North- NDP
Burnaby-Lougheed- NDP
Burnaby North- NDP
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain- LIB
Coquitlam-Maillardville- NDP
Vancouver-Fraserview- LIB
North Vancouver-Lonsdale- LIB

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox- LIB
Cowichan Valley- NDP
Saanich North and the Islands- NDP
Victoria-Beacon Hill- NDP
Esquimalt-Metchosin- NDP

[136or142]

OK, who bumped a 4033 year old thread?

Wouldn't it be 4034 years old?  Isn't year 0 already accounted for?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

OK, who bumped a 4033 year old thread?

Wouldn't it be 4034 years old?  Isn't year 0 already accounted for?

There was no year 0.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_zero

[Hatman 🍁]

Go away, Jfern.

Anyway, my only prediction is that I will be drinking heavily tonight due to what will in all likelihood will be a very depressing night.