2017 BC General Election Prediction thread

[DL]

Anyway, my only prediction is that I will be drinking heavily tonight due to what will in all likelihood will be a very depressing night.

Surely, unless the polls are all wildly off, at worst the Liberals will win again with a reduced majority compared to 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyway, my only prediction is that I will be drinking heavily tonight due to what will in all likelihood will be a very depressing night.

Surely, unless the polls are all wildly off, at worst the Liberals will win again with a reduced majority compared to 2013

Still, disappointing. My worst fear is that come 2019, unless by some miracle the country will be devoid of any provincial NDP governments. This is the best chance to prevent that.

Oh and also, there's also a hockey game I'll be watching before hand that could also be rife with disappointment.

[Wisconsin+17]

EPP is changing Columbia River-Revelstoke and Skeena from NDP Marginal to Liberal Marginal.

I will not be following them. I think EPP is wrong here.

[136or142]

EPP is changing Columbia River-Revelstoke and Skeena from NDP Marginal to Liberal Marginal.

I will not be following them. I think EPP is wrong here.

The election prediction project doesn't have the greatest track record from elections in other provinces and most of their B.C election predictions seem to be based on nothing more than a half a dozen comments, mostly from hyper partisans.

My prediction based on looking riding by riding is virtually unchanged, Liberal 45, NDP 39,  Green 3,  and my official prediction is Liberal 45 NDP 40 Green 2.  

Eric Grenier formerly of 308 also predicts Liberals 45, NDP 40, Green 2 (edit: he changed it today to 44 Liberals, 41 NDP, Green 2, so he predicts a very unstable majority.  If that is the case hopefully Christy Clark will realize she's in over her head and step down as Premier.)

My range of seat wins, possibly a better predictor than my possibly partisan predictions of close ridings:

Liberal 35-62
NDP 22-50
Green 1-9

The minimum Liberal total includes the two ridings currently held by independents.

[DL]

EPP is changing Columbia River-Revelstoke and Skeena from NDP Marginal to Liberal Marginal.

I will not be following them. I think EPP is wrong here.

One thing to keep in mind in Skeena is that there is no Green candidate on the ballot there so the NDP candidate will get 100% of the anti-government vote

[adma]

2017 seat share:

BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5

Gloating time, folks.

[136or142]

2017 seat share:

BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5

Gloating time, folks.

Darn, you beat me too it.  I was going to write "let's all laugh at Lotuslander."  (Even if the B.C Liberals do end up with a very narrow majority)

He got the Greens right though!

[DL]

I suspect Lotuslander is in a padded cell somewhere in a straight jacket throwing himself at the walls and doing some "primal screaming"

[136or142]

I suspect Lotuslander is in a padded cell somewhere in a straight jacket throwing himself at the walls and doing some "primal screaming"

I don't know.  I'm not even 100% certain he actually is pro B.C Liberal, anti NDP.  I think it could be all performance art from him like that Quebecer (I think Quebec) who pretended to be a Conservative and won a Conservative Party nomination.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Thanks for all of the predictions. I am waiting for final results from Elections BC, before I calculate final prediction scores.