FL-27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen to retire from Congress

[ajc0918]

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article147718764.html

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[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow

[TheSaint250]

Well that's not good.  That district is now going to be very competitive.

[Kamala]

This is basically the same level of competitiveness as MN-01 with Walz retiring.

[Angrie]

Well that's not good.  That district is now going to be very competitive.

I think you may be overestimating the GOP's chances in a seat like this in the era of Trump.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Don't want to jinx it but these were the type of signs we saw before 2010

[The Other Castro]

D+1

[Jeppe]

This is a very urban Miami seat Clinton won by around 20 points. It's going to be a Democratic pick-up, Ros-Lehtinen probably would've struggled to defend the seat herself in 2018, a new Republican candidate has no shot.

[TheSaint250]

Well that's not good.  That district is now going to be very competitive.

I think you may be overestimating the GOP's chances in a seat like this in the era of Trump.

I'm just trying to play it safe.  Who knows what will happen by 2018 and what Ros-Lehtinen's influence will be?

[Angrie]

This is a very urban Miami seat Clinton won by around 20 points. It's going to be a Democratic pick-up, Ros-Lehtinen probably would've struggled to defend the seat herself in 2018, a new Republican candidate has no shot.

Most likely she ran an internal poll, it found her losing, and she said "nah, just not interested in going through all that pain."

[Angrie]

I'm just trying to play it safe.  Who knows what will happen by 2018 and what Ros-Lehtinen's influence will be?

Fair enough. If for example something on the level of 9/11 happens and completely turns around Trump's presidency somehow, then it could go GOP.

[Nyvin]

Well that's not good.  That district is now going to be very competitive.

Very Competitive???  No.   FL-27 voted 59-39 Clinton.    This should be one of the easiest districts in the whole country for Dems to flip without IRL,  especially with Trump in the White House.

[publicunofficial]

Well that's not good.  That district is now going to be very competitive.

Very Competitive???  No.   FL-27 voted 59-39 Clinton.    This should be one of the easiest districts in the whole country for Dems to flip without IRL,  especially with Trump in the White House.

The GOP machine in Miami-Dade is still a force to be reckoned with. I'll put it as a toss-up for now.

[The Other Castro]

Sabato's Crystal Ball rating change:

Likely R --> Lean D

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Well that's not good.  That district is now going to be very competitive.

Very Competitive???  No.   FL-27 voted 59-39 Clinton.    This should be one of the easiest districts in the whole country for Dems to flip without IRL,  especially with Trump in the White House.

Hispanics didn't turn out any more than they did in 2012 even with Trump on the docket. What makes you think they'll make this district a wash in a midterm? Sure, the Dems will take it, but it'll be contested if the GOP gets a good candidate.

[TheSaint250]

Sabato's Crystal Ball rating change:

Likely R --> Lean D

I feel like in my heart, it's lean D.  I just wanna be optimistic

[JGibson]

At this juncture, it becomes a Tilt to Lean D race in the wake of IRL's retirement.

[publicunofficial]

IRL's compassion for transgendered people was only matched by her zealously rabid defense of Israel.

[Xing]

This is probably the most likely seat to flip, at the moment.

[RI]

Lean D might be too conservative, if anything.

[Maxwell]

This probably also kills Scott Fuhrman's chances of winning the primary, since this will open the floodgates for first tier Democrat candidates to jump in.

[Donerail]

This probably also kills Scott Fuhrman's chances of winning the primary, since this will open the floodgates for first tier Democrat candidates to jump in.

JJR's Senate seat isn't up till 2020. Hard to see why he wouldn't make the jump. Still no more than tilt D, though.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Holy mackerel. This should be an easy pickup for the Democrats, with all factors considered. Republicans will have to play offence big league to hold on now. IRL has been entrenched, and Carlos Curbelo faced a disliked opponent in 2016- Clinton won both by large margins. FL-26 and 27 are huge targets for the Democrats. Still, there is no universal truth in elections, and the electorate here is not afraid of ticket splitting in the slightest. Also, Florida Democrats.

I wonder if the Democrats can bring back Red Claude Pepper from the dead. He held onto the earlier incarnation of this seat for a long time. He'd be a great recruit.

[Maxwell]

This probably also kills Scott Fuhrman's chances of winning the primary, since this will open the floodgates for first tier Democrat candidates to jump in.

JJR's Senate seat isn't up till 2020. Hard to see why he wouldn't make the jump. Still no more than tilt D, though.

what's the republican bench look like in this district, btw?

[Suburbia]

FL-27 is still Lean Republican in my opinion. Cuban Americans don't like the trend of the Democratic Party so far.

It's surprising that she decided to retire in 2018. She was probably tired of the way how ineffective Congress is.