Are Republicans poised to sweep up the North and younger voters?

[ssuperflash]

I've been looking at a list of trends, and this past year really showed us that the Democrats are having some trouble in parts of the North. That performance in Michigan shows that younger voters are not turning out as much as is necessary to propel Democratic hopes. The anemic millennial turnout in states like Michigan is only a symptom of the problem.

What really matters is that the new generation of Democrats politicians need to fight back against the statist and globalist GOP. For example, the TPP needed to be denied by Clinton for her to even have a shot; she should have never build up such a pro free trade reputation in the first place! The North and Midwest were hit hard by globalization!

The Republicans therefore are ready to trick the people in the Midwestern and Northeastern states into supporting their globalist agenda. Youth voters in Gen Z will becoming more conservative as they age and get jobs. This is similar to how FDR voters switched to the GOP in the 1980s. Some people deny this.

I want the GOP to be driven back in the North, but the Democrats have not provided an actual response to this fake populism from the GOP. I'm a real populist. Both sides do this crap and I want you all to realize that the GOP growth in the Northern states is no joke. If this continues, the GOP will have the house for 50 years.

[Technocracy Timmy]

GOP win the whiter North while Dems become New Mexico/South Africa land of the southern USA. Country votes like Mississippi by 2056. Great analisis Eherding.

[DPKdebator]

Looking at the exit polls, it generally seemed that northern and rural oldest Gen Z voted much more Republican than 24-29 Millennials, while southern Gen Z voted more Democratic than 24-29 Millennials.

[TheSaint250]

The key point is that Generation Z voters are not just economically conservative but socially liberal.  They take more moderate stances on abortion, gay marriage, etc.  This also seems to be the way for most Northeast governors to be elected.  The North, specifically the Northeast, seems to favor fiscal responsibility, but the social conservatism that has dominated the Republican Party for so many years is unattractive there.  If Generation Z continues in its trend of economic conservatism and social moderation, the North will be much more willing to vote for Republicans.  I believe that this is also why Donald Trump did decently in the Northeast in this past election.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Generation Z is barely even out of highschool yet here you guys are making broad generalizations about their political preferences based on a sliver of them voting for the first time this election.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Generation Z is barely even out of highschool yet here you guys are making broad generalizations about their political preferences based on a sliver of them voting for the first time this election.

It's ridiculous. I make board generalizations about them based solely on reddit and YouTube comments and I've come to the conclusion that they're Hitler Youth. That's what a serious person should do.

Anyways, here's an interesting breakdown for how teens would've voted in 2016:

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Source.

[TheSaint250]

Generation Z is barely even out of highschool yet here you guys are making broad generalizations about their political preferences based on a sliver of them voting for the first time this election.

There have consistently been polls about them.

[Figueira]

Generation Z is barely even out of highschool yet here you guys are making broad generalizations about their political preferences based on a sliver of them voting for the first time this election.

There have consistently been polls about them.

No there haven't. There was that one HHF poll, and that's it. And polling people about their political views in high school is not going to mean much.

[Virginiá]

This generation is way too young to effectively forecast like this. Might they have some more conservative views? Sure. But until we see the full picture of how educated this generation looks poised to become, and a sample of their general attitudes after college, these polls are close to worthless. The teenage years and young adulthood are the most volatile times for political leanings/opinions.

[Technocracy Timmy]

This generation is way too young to effectively forecast like this. Might they have some more conservative views? Sure. But until we see the full picture of how educated this generation looks poised to become, and a sample of their general attitudes after college, these polls are close to worthless. The teenage years and young adulthood are the most volatile times for political leanings/opinions.

18 and 19 are pretty important though. Of course nobody from the Homeland generation is 18 yet.

[Virginiá]

18 and 19 are pretty important though. Of course nobody from the Homeland generation is 18 yet.

They are, but that age is probably the peak of their malleability. I think it's best to look at a person's willingness to change as a steady slope downwards over their lifetime, with the highest chances being in young adulthood. This same concept applies to more than just voting as well.

I would also say that, as that 538 link (i've ref that as well a few times before) argues, the president and how they are viewed at the time of these young voters ascendance into adulthood matters a great deal, and even if these young voters are more conservative, Trump is likely to ruin the GOP's chances of capturing their vote en masse. Granted, he might only be around for 4 years, so his effect might be more muted, but I think it would be wrong to assume that these voters will trend Republican just based on these random polls. There is a lot going against the GOP right now in this regard.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not the younger voters. They hate Trump more than any other age group. Maybe they would be willing to support the GOP if it distanced itself from Trump. But he's president now, so that probably won't happen for at least four years.

[Virginiá]

The Georgia and Nevada numbers seem very off. Georgia's youth should be one of the most pro-Clinton groups. Conversely, Nevada's are way too high for her. As are NH and ME.

Virginia also seems off. VA youth have consistently been very Democratic since 2004, mostly by double digits. Nevada doesn't surprise me that much - Obama carried 18-29 year olds by 67% and 68% in 2008 and 2012, respectively. That doesn't mean Clinton is guaranteed those votes, but rather that the potential is there, with a large default lean to Democrats being likely regardless of the candidate.

At any rate, I wouldn't trust those numbers much. Such significant variations for GA & MI at least make me pretty skeptical. The Clinton states, however, are either close to what she actually got among 18-29 year olds, or reflect very real possibilities based on Obama's numbers.