French Legislative Election 2017

[Maxwell]

I would have more support for Macron if he set people like Manuel Valls adrift.

[Famous Mortimer]

So when is the actual deadline when we will officially know candidates?

[jaichind]

If the Harris poll is correct and FN gets 22% of the first-round vote, would this be outstanding?

 
 
In 2015 Front National had 25% in the departmental elections and 28% in the regional elections. In both cases they were the strongest party in the first round. So no, I wouldn't say that 22% would be anything special or outstanding.

But those were lower turnout elections where FN would have the edge.  Le Pen easily outpolled in terms of raw votes what FN polled back in the departmental and regional elections.  Also there is the factor of the protest vote during those local elections which are usually not transferable to national elections.  That said 22% for FN would be a slight letdown from those 2015 days but would easily exceed any FN first round results in previous legislative elections.  If this can be kept up then FN would be in the second round is a large number of races although it would only be good enough to win only a handful of seats.   

[jaichind]

So when is the actual deadline when we will officially know candidates?

Yeah.  The election is in a month and as far as I know EM ! does not have that many candidates set up yet although I guess MoDem will be in charge of nominating a bunch of them.  There are 577 seats so Macron better get going.  I guess a lot will depend on who the mystery PM that Macron will appoint which would give a sense of the ideological spectrum that EM ! will try to target. 

[Zuza]

Is it possible UDI will work with EM! instead of LR?

My understanding is that UDI and LR already have an alliance worked out with UDI getting a certain bloc of seats.

Yes, Wikipedia tells 96 constituencies are reserved for UDI candidates. Also, if I remember correctly, no one of UDI leaders endorsed Macron during the presidential election. If they continued to support Fillon who was corrupt, massively unpopular and ideologically way to the right of them, I would be very surprised if they will break their alliance with LR now.

[Zuza]

By the way, could EELV (or a part of it) join Macron's coalition?

[Zinneke]

By the way, could EELV (or a part of it) join Macron's coalition?

The reformist wing of EELV have already backed Macron (De Rugy, who took part in the PS primary). They broke off way back when part of the EELV joined the PS frondeurs in voting against the government.

https://www.letemps.ch/monde/2015/08/28/verts-francais-se-divisent-fond-derive-gauchiste

WHo knows if Macron includes them, it depends on what weight they have their constituencies. I gather De Rugy is quite popular.

[adma]

As a guideline, here's the first round presidential map by constituency--hopefully, a second round map is forthcoming...

[SunSt0rm]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday, could she win these constituencies and possibly more with triangulaires (thee-way races) in the legislative election? Or will the FN be hurted by the lack of name recognition of their candidates and stronger performances of LR?

[Tintrlvr]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday, could she win these constituencies and possibly more with triangulaires (thee-way races) in the legislative election? Or will the FN be hurted by the lack of name recognition of their candidates and stronger performances of LR?

The latter I am certain. Also, there will be turnout issues. People turned out to vote FN for Le Pen because she was high-profile and the race was high-profile, but I doubt they will turn out in anywhere near the same numbers for random FN candidate #32.

As you implied, most run-offs FN is in will not be straight fights with EM in any case (some will be against left-wing candidates who might be more compelling in certain parts of the Northeast and others will be against LR candidates or triangulaires with LR and EM -- also, many will be against incumbents, some of whom are quite entrenched).

[jaichind]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday, could she win these constituencies and possibly more with triangulaires (thee-way races) in the legislative election? Or will the FN be hurted by the lack of name recognition of their candidates and stronger performances of LR?

The latter I am certain. Also, there will be turnout issues. People turned out to vote FN for Le Pen because she was high-profile and the race was high-profile, but I doubt they will turn out in anywhere near the same numbers for random FN candidate #32.

As you implied, most run-offs FN is in will not be straight fights with EM in any case (some will be against left-wing candidates who might be more compelling in certain parts of the Northeast and others will be against LR candidates or triangulaires with LR and EM -- also, many will be against incumbents, some of whom are quite entrenched).

Yeah.  In 2012 Le Pen got 17.9% of the vote but FN only got 13.6% of the vote in the subsequent legislative elections on the first round.  That said, the polls seems to indicate that FN has 21-23 support.  As long as it does not decline by election day there could very well be a bunch of {EM ! vs LR vs FN} second round races.   If the Le Pen second round vote can be transferred to FN then I can see FN gaining several dozen seats and could even hold the balance of power between EM ! and LR if LR somehow does well.

[Tintrlvr]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday, could she win these constituencies and possibly more with triangulaires (thee-way races) in the legislative election? Or will the FN be hurted by the lack of name recognition of their candidates and stronger performances of LR?

The latter I am certain. Also, there will be turnout issues. People turned out to vote FN for Le Pen because she was high-profile and the race was high-profile, but I doubt they will turn out in anywhere near the same numbers for random FN candidate #32.

As you implied, most run-offs FN is in will not be straight fights with EM in any case (some will be against left-wing candidates who might be more compelling in certain parts of the Northeast and others will be against LR candidates or triangulaires with LR and EM -- also, many will be against incumbents, some of whom are quite entrenched).

Yeah.  In 2012 Le Pen got 17.9% of the vote but FN only got 13.6% of the vote in the subsequent legislative elections on the first round.  That said, the polls seems to indicate that FN has 21-23 support.  As long as it does not decline by election day there could very well be a bunch of {EM ! vs LR vs FN} second round races.   If the Le Pen second round vote can be transferred to FN then I can see FN gaining several dozen seats and could even hold the balance of power between EM ! and LR if LR somehow does well.

I can't see FN doing better in the first round of the legislatives than Le Pen did in the first round of the presidential election. Their absolute ceiling first round is therefore 21%, but we're probably looking at more like 16-18%, consistent with prior drop-offs. It's not just a matter of turnout and candidate recognition for them, too. There are going to be left-wing candidates who are much better fits for, e.g., rural Aisne than Melenchon or Hamon (or Macron) in the legislatives competing with FN for votes also.

[Zinneke]

I think the FN will gain seats by virtue of the Republican Front being weaker, especially with the demise of the PS. Macron probably backs himself enough to not withdraw candidates in case of triangulaire. It will depend on the local politics too.

[parochial boy]

The fact that the legislatives could take place slap bang in the middle of an all out FN civil war could cause them to nosedive in support.

The knives already look like they're being sharpened for Philippot; and I can't really see the niece winning over swing voters in the North East so much.

[Kringla Heimsins]

- Who is in charge now and leads the PS for the legislative election? Hamon?

Cambadélis (lol) or probably Le Foll.

It's actually Cazeneuve now. And the PS has published a new common program for all the candidates, which scraps most of Hamon's program. No more universal income or fight against burn-out. In return, Hamon has called for an alliance with France Insoumise, and has not ruled out supporting FI/PCF candidates over PS ones.

[ApatheticAustrian]

question.....

if the PS is scrapping far-left goals......how are they crawling closer to melenchon....i guess he is more a supporter of the "working poor", eh?

[jaichind]

The En Marche! party will now be called Republique en Marche, or Republic on the Move.  The group will announce the 577 candidates for the parliamentary seats on Thursday and won’t engage in alliances with others aside from the one already concluded with MoDem.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

- Who is in charge now and leads the PS for the legislative election? Hamon?

Cambadélis (lol) or probably Le Foll.

It's actually Cazeneuve now. And the PS has published a new common program for all the candidates, which scraps most of Hamon's program. No more universal income or fight against burn-out. In return, Hamon has called for an alliance with France Insoumise, and has not ruled out supporting FI/PCF candidates over PS ones.

Is Hamon standing as a candidate?

[Kringla Heimsins]

- Who is in charge now and leads the PS for the legislative election? Hamon?

Cambadélis (lol) or probably Le Foll.

It's actually Cazeneuve now. And the PS has published a new common program for all the candidates, which scraps most of Hamon's program. No more universal income or fight against burn-out. In return, Hamon has called for an alliance with France Insoumise, and has not ruled out supporting FI/PCF candidates over PS ones.

Is Hamon standing as a candidate?

Yes: In the 11th constituency of Yvelines, for which he is already the deputy: http://www.parti-socialiste.fr/liste-candidats-aux-legislatives-investis-ps/

[Antonio the Sixth]

So apparently EM (or LREM, now, I guess) won't ask candidates to leave their own parties, but it will ask them to run under its label and for a single parliamentary group. Good. That way we can tell the traitors from those worth supporting.

[TheSaint250]

So apparently EM (or LREM, now, I guess) won't ask candidates to leave their own parties, but it will ask them to run under its label and for a single parliamentary group. Good. That way we can tell the traitors from those worth supporting.

So it's sort of like a coalition AND a formal party?

[adma]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

[Kringla Heimsins]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

Challenge for BRTD: drive from Paris to Amsterdam without driving through a constituency that voted for Le Pen.

[Lachi]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

Challenge for BRTD: drive from Paris to Amsterdam without driving through a constituency that voted for Le Pen.

Not really that hard, but it's not exactly the most, shall I say, direct route