French Legislative Election 2017

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

To be honest, all current leftwing parties must be destroyed as they are led by incompetent morons, the Hollande presidency proving this point. So if he could destroy, that would be a good thing.

Destroy them to replace them with what, exactly? The left is facing an existential threat right now. If left parties die, they won't be replaced with Better Ones. The political space is already too crowded now, so their space will readily be filled by a combination of FI and LREM.

[rob in cal]

    So it looks like LRM will win a majority of seats with much less than a majority of 1st round votes. Nothing new here I realize, but I wonder what the minimum threshold of nationwide votes it needs to win a bare majority. With such a splintering of the electorate the French single member district winner take all with runoffs might just yield a new low in disproportional results.  Here's hoping the Fabulous Beautiful One will deliver on his election reform promise.

[Beet]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

Sounds more like Corbyn. Melenchon actually came within a hair's breadth of the runoff, had Hamon dropped out, it would've happened. Do you have any other beef with Melenchon besides his supposed opposition fetishism?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

Sounds more like Corbyn. Melenchon actually came within a hair's breadth of the runoff, had Hamon dropped out, it would've happened. Do you have any other beef with Melenchon besides his supposed opposition fetishism?

His entire strategy has been to direct all his efforts against the PS and other left-wing parties. Someone who does that has no interest in building a force that can actually win elections and enact meaningful changes. Oh, sure, maybe some day he will be President at the rates things are going these days, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to win a majority, or do much good with it if it's not made entirely of yes-men.

[Shadows]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

Sounds more like Corbyn. Melenchon actually came within a hair's breadth of the runoff, had Hamon dropped out, it would've happened. Do you have any other beef with Melenchon besides his supposed opposition fetishism?

His entire strategy has been to direct all his efforts against the PS and other left-wing parties. Someone who does that has no interest in building a force that can actually win elections and enact meaningful changes. Oh, sure, maybe some day he will be President at the rates things are going these days, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to win a majority, or do much good with it if it's not made entirely of yes-men.

That is exactly what any sane guy would do. If I were Melenchon, I would do the same & you would do it. He needs to grow his party so that it becomes the largest left party & for that most of his voters will come from the PS & for that he has to go hard after the PS. After he becomes the de facto left leader, he should try & enlarge the coalition & shouldn't mind aligning or even supporting PS in odd cases. That is how you grow - Any business or a political party ! Common sense !

I am not supporting Melenchon here, his economic agenda is too far left, he is probably a shade better than Macron (who will govern center-right in economics) but this is how the world words. My personal preference is the PS & Hamon, but Hollande has left PS in the verge of ruin. I hope Hamon rebuilds the party, he is a good politician & a decent person & more preferable to Melenchon!

[Tirnam]

NKM in the 2nd constituency of Paris will have two contenders on the right, the mayor of the VIth arrondissement of Paris and Henri Guaino.

Not sure how she will survive in a constituency where Macron did well.

Well, there is an LRM candidate, Gilles Legendre, but afaik he's a nobody, and NKM is quite Macron-compatible, and quite a good match for this constituency. Incidentally, this is where I'm registered to vote! But I'm leaning on not voting at all for now.

Yes, but in this political environment I'm sure that being a nobody in politics isn't a disadvantage.
She might be a perfect for the constituency fit but the deep division in the right could be fatal. For her, I'm more afraid of the mayor of the 6th arrondissement who, maybe, is more appealing than her to the right-wing voters in the 6th and 7th arrondissement of Paris, while the average voter in the 5th might stay with the LREM candidate.
I think she still will be in the runoff but maybe in a weak position against the LREM.


Another situation in Paris, in the 18th constituency, LREM has no candidate but both PS candidate (famous Myriam El-Khomri) and LR candidate have made clear that they will be in the presidential majority.

[Zinneke]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

Sounds more like Corbyn. Melenchon actually came within a hair's breadth of the runoff, had Hamon dropped out, it would've happened. Do you have any other beef with Melenchon besides his supposed opposition fetishism?

His entire strategy has been to direct all his efforts against the PS and other left-wing parties. Someone who does that has no interest in building a force that can actually win elections and enact meaningful changes. Oh, sure, maybe some day he will be President at the rates things are going these days, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to win a majority, or do much good with it if it's not made entirely of yes-men.

That is exactly what any sane guy would do. If I were Melenchon, I would do the same & you would do it. He needs to grow his party so that it becomes the largest left party & for that most of his voters will come from the PS & for that he has to go hard after the PS. After he becomes the de facto left leader, he should try & enlarge the coalition & shouldn't mind aligning or even supporting PS in odd cases. That is how you grow - Any business or a political party ! Common sense !

I am not supporting Melenchon here, his economic agenda is too far left, he is probably a shade better than Macron (who will govern center-right in economics) but this is how the world words. My personal preference is the PS & Hamon, but Hollande has left PS in the verge of ruin. I hope Hamon rebuilds the party, he is a good politician & a decent person & more preferable to Melenchon!

Most of the PS voters appear to have already gone to Macron.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope Hamon rebuilds the party, he is a good politician & a decent person & more preferable to Melenchon!

I hope so too, but what Mélenchon is doing is to make sure that this rebuilding never happens. He wants to kill the PS outright and leave no room for any political force between him and FBM. This is, again, the best way to ensure that the French left remains irrelevant.

[Famous Mortimer]

I hope Hamon rebuilds the party, he is a good politician & a decent person & more preferable to Melenchon!

I hope so too, but what Mélenchon is doing is to make sure that this rebuilding never happens. He wants to kill the PS outright and leave no room for any political force between him and FBM. This is, again, the best way to ensure that the French left remains irrelevant.

A space between Macron and Melenchon is just a Muslim vote bank.

[Tirnam]

Constituency polls by Ifop

Bouches-du-Rhône, 4th
Mélenchon (FI): 38%
Versini (LREM): 24%
Mennuci (PS): 13%
Marti (FN): 12%
Biaggi (LR): 10%

Runoff: Mélenchon at 53%

Rhône, 6th
Bonnell (LREM): 30%
Vallaud-Belkacem (PS): 19%
Legendre (FI):17%
Haziza (LR): 13%

Runoff: Bonnell at 60% against NVB, 62% against Legendre

NVB is a quite popular figure of PS, at least on the left. Veyssierre's projection has her at 12.5%, so she outperforms that, but it's still very weak

[Zinneke]

Constituency polls by Ifop

Bouches-du-Rhône, 4th
Mélenchon (FI): 38%
Versini (LREM): 24%
Mennuci (PS): 13%
Marti (FN): 12%
Biaggi (LR): 10%

Runoff: Mélenchon at 53%

Rhône, 6th
Bonnell (LREM): 30%
Vallaud-Belkacem (PS): 19%
Legendre (FI):17%
Haziza (LR): 13%

Runoff: Bonnell at 60% against NVB, 62% against Legendre

NVB is a quite popular figure of PS, at least on the left. Veyssierre's projection has her at 12.5%, so she outperforms that, but it's still very weak

Is Royale going to run in La Rochelle again?

[Former President tack50]

I hope Hamon rebuilds the party, he is a good politician & a decent person & more preferable to Melenchon!

I hope so too, but what Mélenchon is doing is to make sure that this rebuilding never happens. He wants to kill the PS outright and leave no room for any political force between him and FBM. This is, again, the best way to ensure that the French left remains irrelevant.

A space between Macron and Melenchon is just a Muslim vote bank.

Really? Are there even 7% (Hamon's percentage) of muslims in France with the right to vote?

And was Hamon basically a muslim candidate? >.>

[parochial boy]

I hope Hamon rebuilds the party, he is a good politician & a decent person & more preferable to Melenchon!

I hope so too, but what Mélenchon is doing is to make sure that this rebuilding never happens. He wants to kill the PS outright and leave no room for any political force between him and FBM. This is, again, the best way to ensure that the French left remains irrelevant.

A space between Macron and Melenchon is just a Muslim vote bank.

Really? Are there even 7% (Hamon's percentage) of muslims in France with the right to vote?

And was Hamon basically a muslim candidate? >.>

Well Hamon's best scores were in Brittany, which is quite noticeable for its lack of muslims

[Intell]

Muslim areas voted for Melenchon then Marcon, and had a slightly higher vote share for Hamon.

http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/resultats/val-de-marne_94/ivry-sur-seine_94200

Also handy site to find out how each commune vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope Hamon rebuilds the party, he is a good politician & a decent person & more preferable to Melenchon!

I hope so too, but what Mélenchon is doing is to make sure that this rebuilding never happens. He wants to kill the PS outright and leave no room for any political force between him and FBM. This is, again, the best way to ensure that the French left remains irrelevant.

A space between Macron and Melenchon is just a Muslim vote bank.

Really? Are there even 7% (Hamon's percentage) of muslims in France with the right to vote?

And was Hamon basically a muslim candidate? >.>

"Famous Mortimer" is a moron, please ignore him.

[Tirnam]

Hamon supports PCF candidate against Valls. He also supports PCF/EELV candidates against various PS candidates (El-Khomri for example).

So a former PS presidential candidate who wants to defeat PS candidates, shouldn't he be excluded from PS?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So a former PS presidential candidate who wants to defeat PS candidates, shouldn't he be excluded from PS?

[parochial boy]

Valls is clearly very proud of his party...

[MaxQue]

Hamon supports PCF candidate against Valls. He also supports PCF/EELV candidates against various PS candidates (El-Khomri for example).

So a former PS presidential candidate who wants to defeat PS candidates, shouldn't he be excluded from PS?

Valls is not a PS candidate, in any case.

[MAINEiac4434]

Valls is clearly very proud of his party...

All three are (nominally) members of the PS...but only one has any red on his poster, let alone the party logo. Shameful.

[Velasco]

If I understood correctly, the situation of the three is the following:

Manuel Valls is a candidate "sans étiquette" (neither the PS nor LREM nominated him). Marisol Touraine was nominated by the PS, but it seems that after this affiche came out the party wants her expulsion. Patrick Mennucci claims that the affiches saying "un député de gauche pour Macron!" are the product of a manipulation orchestrated by the Mélenchon's sect. Wonderful!

[Tirnam]

So a former PS presidential candidate who wants to defeat PS candidates, shouldn't he be excluded from PS?

How exactly Hamon proves that he is loyal to his party? The man who cried about the traitors during the presidential election, the others can't support somebody outside the PS but Hamon can?

Valls is clearly very proud of his party...

Valls is no longer member of the PS, the Mennuci poster is a fake posted by Mélenchon.

Hamon supports PCF candidate against Valls. He also supports PCF/EELV candidates against various PS candidates (El-Khomri for example).

So a former PS presidential candidate who wants to defeat PS candidates, shouldn't he be excluded from PS?

Valls is not a PS candidate, in any case.

Valls is not, El-Khomri is a PS candidate, Boutih is a PS candidate yet Hamon supports the PCF candidate against him, Bapt is a PS candidate and Hamon supports the EELV candidate against him.

[Zinneke]

Hamon was hardly loyal to the PS after Valls moved into Matignon. To expect Valls and other soc-dems to do the same is laughable.

Anyway, its a silly blame game that we've seen in Britain, Spain, Italy. These soc-dem parties have succumbed to the Maastricht Treaties and Washington Consensus undermining the hard left, and the financial crisis undermining the soc-dems. There is no point in trying to do the splits and reconcile these two political circles yet.

[Tirnam]

Ifop, poll

LREM: 31%
LR/UDI: 19%
FN: 18%
FI: 15%
PS: 7%

No seats projection, but they expect a wave for LREM, very few FI deputies and less than 30 seats for PS.

Contexte analysis (free access only today).
They don't have the numbers, but it seems that it's around 400 deputies for LREM, 100 for the right, 50 for the left (PS, FI), 24 for FN.

[rob in cal]

   Is there a list of seats with the highest % of Moslem voters? I'm guessing most are on the outskirts of the bigger cities but wonder if there is a handy list. Intresting to see how the Beautiful One's candidates will do in them.