French Legislative Election 2017

[Zanas]

If anyone is wondering, I've decided that I'll vote for Jocelyne Le Boulicaut (EELV) on the first round, and write in a fictional character in the inevitable LREM-LR runoff.

May I suggest Tom Bombadil ?

[Tirnam]

Le Monde, on why LREM could get a landslide majority, based on the Ipsos-Cévipof poll.

-LREM is way ahead in the first round (31% to 22% to LR, in the constituencies where LREM is actually opposed to LR it's 33% to 21%) and the LREM vote is high everywhere  with no area of weakness: LREM is ahead or slightly behind in the strongholds of PS, FI, FN or LR. Also that means that there is no incumbent advantage.
-Low turnout prevent high numbers of triangulaires, so in majority it will be duels with LREM gaining votes from every other parties.

Also in this Ipsos-Cévipol poll there is some interesting results about French society
-Homosexuality is an acceptable way to live his sexuality: Yes 71% (up 8 since 2015)
-Childs of immigrants born in France are as French as others: Yes 58% (+8)
-There is too many immigrants in France: Yes 53% (-7)
-France needs a strong leader who doesn't care about parliament or elections: Yes 42% (-10)
-Reinstate the death penalty: Yes 35% (-4)
-If the EU were abandoned tomorrow, what would you feel? Big regrets 53% (+9 since 2016), don't care 31% (-2), big relief 16% (-7)

It's pretty depressing that large amounts of people still disagree with them even though it's going in the right direction.

In fact only 7% disagree with the statement about homosexuality, 19% with the statement about children of immigrants

[ApatheticAustrian]

it was always baffling for me that the "demo for all"-movement was able to rally sooo many french people.....wasn't nearly as successful in other european countries, who are not known for sexual ...well..liberty.

/stereotype

[parochial boy]

an Islamist are also standing in the constituency.

So this guy's party, the "Equality and Justice" party (PEJ) have been accused of being an unofficial front for, and backed by Erdogan and the AKP.

They will undoubtedly be completely irrelevant in the elecltions, with the possible exception of round Strasbourg, which has a large Turksih community; but it does raise the prospect of continuing attempts by Turkey to interfere in European democracies.

it was always baffling for me that the "demo for all"-movement was able to rally sooo many french people.....wasn't nearly as successful in other european countries, who are not known for sexual ...well..liberty.

/stereotype

Well they're French, nothing they love more than a good protest...

[Tirnam]

Constituencies polls by Ifop (be prepared for a LREM tsunami)

Paris, 2nd
Le Gendre (LREM) : 42%
NKM (LR) : 24%
Lecoq (DVD) : 7.5%
Prunières (FI) : 7%
Guaino (DVD) : 3%

Second round
Le Gendre 68%, NKM 32%

Gard, 2nd
Collard (FN) : 32%
Sara (LREM) : 31%
Mourrut (LR) : 17.5%
Floutier (FI) : 14%

Second round
Two-way race : Sara 56%, Collard 44%
Three-way race : Sara 41%, Collard 37%, Mourrut 22%

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If anyone is wondering, I've decided that I'll vote for Jocelyne Le Boulicaut (EELV) on the first round, and write in a fictional character in the inevitable LREM-LR runoff.

May I suggest Tom Bombadil ?

I mean, he would probably be an EELV supporter if he could be roused to care about politics, which he couldn't.

[windjammer]

Constituencies polls by Ifop (be prepared for a LREM tsunami)

Paris, 2nd
Le Gendre (LREM) : 42%
NKM (LR) : 24%
Lecoq (DVD) : 7.5%
Prunières (FI) : 7%
Guaino (DVD) : 3%

Second round
Le Gendre 68%, NKM 32%

Gard, 2nd
Collard (FN) : 32%
Sara (LREM) : 31%
Mourrut (LR) : 17.5%
Floutier (FI) : 14%

Second round
Two-way race : Sara 56%, Collard 44%
Three-way race : Sara 41%, Collard 37%, Mourrut 22%

But I thought NKM's seat was heavily LRs?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So Macron could actually win an outright majority? That isn't a rocket rise to power, this is light speed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently French people are going to give a legislative majority to ANYONE who's been elected President, no matter the circumstances. I'm sure Panzergirl is taking note.

[Tirnam]

First results

French abroad, 1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 54.26%
Lefebvre* (LR): 13.37%
Langlois (FI): 12%
Chantrel (PS): 9.13%

Runoff Lescure - Lefebvre

French abroad, 2nd (South America) (80% in)
Forteza (LREM): 43.32%
Conorado* (FI-EELV): 24.24%
Drouhaud (LR): 10.36%

Runoff Forteza-Conorado

(* = incumbent)

[Zinneke]

Apparently French people are going to give a legislative majority to ANYONE who's been elected President, no matter the circumstances. I'm sure Panzergirl is taking note.

Ridiculous comparison. While the republican front is still fractured, transfers to FN in second round would be far lower than to a catch all centrist government with both left and right ministers.

[FredLindq]

First results

French abroad, 1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 54.26%
Lefebvre* (LR): 13.37%
Langlois (FI): 12%
Chantrel (PS): 9.13%

Runoff Lescure - Lefebvre

French abroad, 2nd (South America) (80% in)
Forteza (LREM): 43.32%
Conorado* (FI-EELV): 24.24%
Drouhaud (LR): 10.36%

Runoff Forteza-Conorado

(* = incumbent)

No run off North america when Lescure gets over 50 percent?!

[parochial boy]

First results

French abroad, 1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 54.26%
Lefebvre* (LR): 13.37%
Langlois (FI): 12%
Chantrel (PS): 9.13%

Runoff Lescure - Lefebvre

French abroad, 2nd (South America) (80% in)
Forteza (LREM): 43.32%
Conorado* (FI-EELV): 24.24%
Drouhaud (LR): 10.36%

Runoff Forteza-Conorado

(* = incumbent)

No run off North america when Lescure gets over 50 percent?!

You need to get 25% of all registered voters as well as a majority of votes to be elected in the first round, turnout was only 19% so there will be a run off.

[TheSaint250]

Apparently French people are going to give a legislative majority to ANYONE who's been elected President, no matter the circumstances.

Usually, that provides somewhat of an issue imo because that gives a president, no matter how bad later on, the majority to do what he or she wants. However, now it seems to be different since a good part of REM candidates are still part of different parties and could just split off and join their other parties' groups in the National Assembly if things go sideways for Macron.

I think they should have their legislative elections at different times, though, no a month after the presidential election.

[mvd10]

Is it really that surprising that Macron will win a majority? Sure, his candidates are all new but he just got elected president and the French always give their presidents a majority the month after their election. And LREM is uniquely positioned to win a lot of run-offs. The right prefers LREM over the left, the left prefers LREM over the right and everyone prefers LREM over FN.

[Lord Halifax]

Apparently French people are going to give a legislative majority to ANYONE who's been elected President, no matter the circumstances.

Usually, that provides somewhat of an issue imo because that gives a president, no matter how bad later on, the majority to do what he or she wants. However, now it seems to be different since a good part of REM candidates are still part of different parties and could just split off and join their other parties' groups in the National Assembly if things go sideways for Macron.

I think they should have their legislative elections at different times, though, no a month after the presidential election.

That would give them the same gridlock problems as the US.

[Tirnam]

Reports on Twitter for the French abroad, 11th (Russia, Asia, Oceania), Genetet (LREM) over 50%, Mariani (LR and Putin fan) distant second.

[SunSt0rm]

First results

French abroad, 1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 54.26%
Lefebvre* (LR): 13.37%
Langlois (FI): 12%
Chantrel (PS): 9.13%

Runoff Lescure - Lefebvre

French abroad, 2nd (South America) (80% in)
Forteza (LREM): 43.32%
Conorado* (FI-EELV): 24.24%
Drouhaud (LR): 10.36%

Runoff Forteza-Conorado

(* = incumbent)

No run off North america when Lescure gets over 50 percent?!

You need to get 25% of all registered voters as well as a majority of votes to be elected in the first round, turnout was only 19% so there will be a run off.

Whats the point of that rule? Has anyone ever lost while getting more than 50% of the votes in the first round?

[Antonio the Sixth]

French abroad, 1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 54.26%
Lefebvre* (LR): 13.37%
Langlois (FI): 12%
Chantrel (PS): 9.13%

Are these full results? What's the source?

[Tirnam]

French abroad, 1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 54.26%
Lefebvre* (LR): 13.37%
Langlois (FI): 12%
Chantrel (PS): 9.13%

Are these full results? What's the source?

Yes, apparently the full results, still unofficial.
Source (tweet by a random Twitter user but retaken by AFP, RTL and RFI journalists)
Some results by consulate in the US

[Antonio the Sixth]

French abroad, 1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 54.26%
Lefebvre* (LR): 13.37%
Langlois (FI): 12%
Chantrel (PS): 9.13%

Are these full results? What's the source?

Yes, apparently the full results, still unofficial.
Source (tweet by a random Twitter user but retaken by AFP, RTL and RFI journalists)
Some results by consulate in the US

The candidate I voted for got 10 votes in my consulate.

[jimrtex]

The Houston consulate is responsible for Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. For the presidential elections (and presumably for the parliamentary election) there were polling locations in Dallas, Austin, and Houston, but there were two results from Houston, and other large cities had several as well. How are voters assigned to these multiple "precincts" in one city?

[Tirnam]

The results for the French abroad have been published

1st (North America)
Lescure (LREM): 57.53%
Lefebvre* (LR): 14.53%

2nd (South America)
Forteza (LREM): 43.17%
Coronado* (EELV-FI): 23.61%

3rd (Northern Europe)
Holroyd (LREM): 57.80%
Lemaire* (PS): 9.83%

4th (Benelux)
Anglade (LREM): 52.27%
Rauszer (FI): 10.95%
Cordery* (PS): 6.28%

5th (Spain, Portugal, Monaco)
Cazebonne (LREM): 50.36%
Ralle-Andreoli (EÉLV-FI): 15.52%

6th (Switzerland)
Son Forget (LREM): 63,55%
Schmid* (LR): 15,76%

7th (central Europe)
Petit (MoDem): 54,03%
Le Borgn'* (PS): 13,88%

8th (Southern Europe, Turkey, Israël)
Drory (LREM): 36.73%
Habib (LR): 35.51%

9th (Northern-Western Africa)
Aïchi (LREM): 20.29%
Guerrab (LREM): 18.93%

10th (Central and Southern Africa)
Lakrafi (LREM): 60.08%
Marsaud* (LR): 18.89%

11th (Eastern Europe, Asia, Oceania)
Genetet (LREM): 54.11%
Mariani* (LR): 18.78%

[Mike88]

So that's 9 newly elected MP's for LREM/MoDem and two which will go to a runoff, although the 9th district will have a LREM MP i suppose. 

[Tirnam]

No, due to low turnout all of them go to a runoff.
In the 8th LREM will probably win thanks to left-wing voters.
In the 9th the candidate who arrived on top lost the LREM nomination but still campaign with the LREM logo, with the photo of Macron, etc.