French Legislative Election 2017

[Mike88]

No, due to low turnout all of them go to a runoff.
In the 8th LREM will probably win thanks to left-wing voters.
In the 9th the candidate who arrived on top lost the LREM nomination but still campaign with the LREM logo, with the photo of Macron, etc.

Ahhh.. Didn't knew that. By the way, what was the average turnout rate?.

But still, it looks good for LREM.

[MaxQue]

No, due to low turnout all of them go to a runoff.
In the 8th LREM will probably win thanks to left-wing voters.
In the 9th the candidate who arrived on top lost the LREM nomination but still campaign with the LREM logo, with the photo of Macron, etc.

Thankfully, LREM will win in the 8th. Habib is a wierd case. He is not hiding he considers himself the Likud representative in the French Assembly, he has very low interest in French affairs and totally ignore the other half of his constituency (Israel and Southern Europe).

[Tirnam]

No, due to low turnout all of them go to a runoff.
In the 8th LREM will probably win thanks to left-wing voters.
In the 9th the candidate who arrived on top lost the LREM nomination but still campaign with the LREM logo, with the photo of Macron, etc.

Ahhh.. Didn't knew that. By the way, what was the average turnout rate?.

But still, it looks good for LREM.

From 9.8% in the 9th to 27.6% in the 11th

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't oppose the idea of constituencies for the French abroad, but given the abysmal turnout, I really think we should reduce them to like 4 or 5.

[Tirnam]

Ipsos poll for France Télévisions and Radio France

LREM: 29.5% (= since a week ago)
LR: 23% (+1)
FN: 17% (-1)
FI: 12.5% (+1)
PS: 8.5% (-0.5)

Seats projection
LREM: 385-415
LR: 105-125
PS: 25-35
FI: 15-22
FN: 5-15
Others: 3-7

Turnout: 60%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tapura Huiraatira (centre right, anti independence, split from corrupt machine Tahoera) have seemingly swept Polynesia and will align with Macron.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos poll for France Télévisions and Radio France

LREM: 29.5% (= since a week ago)
LR: 23% (+1)
FN: 17% (-1)
FI: 12.5% (+1)
PS: 8.5% (-0.5)

Seats projection
LREM: 385-415
LR: 105-125
PS: 25-35
FI: 15-22
FN: 5-15
Others: 3-7

Turnout: 60%

[TheSaint250]

Ipsos poll for France Télévisions and Radio France

LREM: 29.5% (= since a week ago)
LR: 23% (+1)
FN: 17% (-1)
FI: 12.5% (+1)
PS: 8.5% (-0.5)

Seats projection
LREM: 385-415
LR: 105-125
PS: 25-35
FI: 15-22
FN: 5-15
Others: 3-7

Turnout: 60%

[jaichind]

Ipsos poll for France Télévisions and Radio France

LREM: 29.5% (= since a week ago)
LR: 23% (+1)
FN: 17% (-1)
FI: 12.5% (+1)
PS: 8.5% (-0.5)

Seats projection
LREM: 385-415
LR: 105-125
PS: 25-35
FI: 15-22
FN: 5-15
Others: 3-7

Turnout: 60%

LREM is actually down 1.5% from the previous Ipsos poll earlier in the week although it is flat from a week ago,.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So this is gonna be a snoozefest. Great.

[Tirnam]

Ipsos poll for France Télévisions and Radio France

LREM: 29.5% (= since a week ago)
LR: 23% (+1)
FN: 17% (-1)
FI: 12.5% (+1)
PS: 8.5% (-0.5)

Seats projection
LREM: 385-415
LR: 105-125
PS: 25-35
FI: 15-22
FN: 5-15
Others: 3-7

Turnout: 60%

LREM is actually down 1.5% from the previous Ipsos poll earlier in the week although it is flat from a week ago,.

Yes the Ipsos-Cévipof but it's not exactly the same poll, with a comparable sampling or methodology or for the same media organization.

So this is gonna be a snoozefest. Great.

Yeah funny that during the presidential campaign one of the main argument against Macron was that he could not have a majority in the Assembly, now they warn about "one party system"

[mvd10]

LREM seems like the kind of personality cult party that descends into civil war and splits up once it's founder and strong leader (Macron) leaves. Macron probably will completely dominate the political scene for the next decade, but when he goes LREM goes with him imo.

[jaichind]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN18X171?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5936eecf04d30144b0558679&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

France's Macron set for biggest majority since De Gaulle: poll

Reuters cites the Ipsos poll and says that ~400 seats would be the largest majority since De Gaulle.  My question is: Is not the Center-Right Bloc of 1993 elections a even larger majority.  Granted it is several parties but the Center-Right in 1993 ran as a bloc, I believe.  Just like now LREM-MoDem is running as a bloc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah funny that during the presidential campaign one of the main argument against Macron was that he could not have a majority in the Assembly, now they warn about "one party system"

One of the reasons I could bring myself to voting for FBM in the runoff was because I thought he probably wouldn't get an absolute majority.

[MaxQue]

Yeah funny that during the presidential campaign one of the main argument against Macron was that he could not have a majority in the Assembly, now they warn about "one party system"

One of the reasons I could bring myself to voting for FBM in the runoff was because I thought he probably wouldn't get an absolute majority.

And now you have the joy of having (or not) to choose between Lescure or Lefebvre.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah funny that during the presidential campaign one of the main argument against Macron was that he could not have a majority in the Assembly, now they warn about "one party system"

One of the reasons I could bring myself to voting for FBM in the runoff was because I thought he probably wouldn't get an absolute majority.

And now you have the joy of having (or not) to choose between Lescure or Lefebvre.

I won't.

[Tirnam]

From Le Canard Enchaîné, the mood of political leaders

-Macron projects more than 400 deputies, "almost too many"
-Cambadélis (PS) considers PS having less than 15 deputies
-Baroin (LR): "we are going to take a big trashing"

[parochial boy]

TBH, if you can win 75% of available seat of off 30% of the first round vote, then it's a pretty clear signal that France desperately needs electoral reform

[Zinneke]

From Le Canard Enchaîné, the mood of political leaders

-Macron projects more than 400 deputies, "almost too many"
-Cambadélis (PS) considers PS having less than 15 deputies
-Baroin (LR): "we are going to take a big trashing"

That means Le Pen will be the official opposition to Macronisme, which is not good...

[mvd10]

From Le Canard Enchaîné, the mood of political leaders

-Macron projects more than 400 deputies, "almost too many"
-Cambadélis (PS) considers PS having less than 15 deputies
-Baroin (LR): "we are going to take a big trashing"

That means Le Pen will be the official opposition to Macronisme, which is not good...

I really doubt the FN will have more seats than LR. LR probably will still win 100-120 seats or so.

[Umengus]

Ifop poll / voix du nord

11 Pas De Calais

Marine 44
Roquet (LREM) 15,5
Kemel (PS-incumbent) 14,5
Carpentier (FI) 13,5
Pintus (LR) 4

the newspaper refuses to give the result of the runoff because the gap between the candidates is too small...

It's the best territory for the FN to have a deputy.

[Tirnam]

Le Pen at 44% is not safe to win the second round, in 2012 she only gained 7 points between the two rounds.

Ifop poll (done a week ago)
LREM: 31%
LR: 19%
FN: 18%
FI: 12%
PS: 7.5%

Seats projection
LREM: 350-380
LR: 133-153
PS: 20-35
FI: 15-25
FN: 9-16

Odoxa
LREM: 33%
LR: 19%
FN: 18%
FI: 11%
PS: 8%

Seats projection
LREM: 350-390
LR: 120-160
PS: 25-35
FI: 15-25
FN: 5-15

[Umengus]

BVA poll

LREM 30
LR 20
FN 18
FI 12,5
PS 8
EELV 3
PC 2
DLF 2

[jaichind]

BVA poll

LREM 30
LR 20
FN 18
FI 12,5
PS 8
EELV 3
PC 2
DLF 2

Same poll seems to project LREM to get "more than 375 seats"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tbh, vote-to-seat projections are absolutely meaningless in the French electoral system. LREM could win 300 or 450 seats for all we know.