French Legislative Election 2017

[Tirnam]

Party leading by region (by BVA)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Clearly it's getting the votes of former PS voters. Jesus F**king Christ this is disgusting.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Clearly it's getting the votes of former PS voters. Jesus F**king Christ this is disgusting.

[SunSt0rm]

Voting intention in each scenario for the second round. Missing LREM vs FI tbh

[parochial boy]

From what I remember of the presidential, the regional polls that came out there were pretty off (like Fillon was going to win in IdF for instance).

Some of the numbers in that regional poll above look pretty bizarre. LREM are really going to get a bigger score in Pays de la Loire and Normandy than in IdF or Brittany? they're going to do better in Hauts-de-France than in Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes? really?

[jaichind]

OpinionWay poll

LREM      30 (+1)      370–400  (+40 seats)
LR-UDI    20 (+1)      120–150 (-20 seats)
FN           18                 8–18    (+1 seat)
FI            12 (-1)      FI/PCF 12–22 (-11 seats)
PCF           3
PS-PRG      7(-1)       PS/PRG/EELV 15–25 (-8 seats)
EELV         3

Converging toward other polls in terms of seat count for LREM

[jaichind]

It seems that all the polls has LREM-MoDem at around 30%-32%.  If that were to take place tomorrow and LREM-MoDem gets a massive majority of seats next week that would be a strange but understandable landslide since 30%-32% would be pretty much the lowest first round vote share of a Presidential Majority Bloc in living memory but will be en route to the largest majority in living memory (with exception of 1993 perhaps)

[Leftbehind]

I can only hope this liberal sh**t-show collapses after one term and the Left return in full-force.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I can only hope this liberal sh**t-show collapses after one term and the Left return in full-force.

if he succeds, he is surely going to collapse - would have been necessary work anyway.

and see it from that pov: "the left" (whatever that means) is not responsible for this government....and FN and LR are still in opposition.

seems like an okayish deal after 5 years of hollande.

[adma]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

The La Provence map/results site seems to have gone subscription-only.  Is there someplace else where second-round presidential figures + maps ***by constituency*** are available--***where I do not need to subscribe?!?***

*Please* help.

[adma]

Like here, you get results by department, and by commune.  But not by constituency.  (And I can't figure out the site within where to get Excel files.)

*****I. Hate. Paywalls.*****

https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-resultats/Presidentielles/elecresult__presidentielle-2017/(path)/presidentielle-2017/

[Tirnam]

Turnout at noon: 19.24% (-1.82 compared to 2012)

[Tirnam]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

The La Provence map/results site seems to have gone subscription-only.  Is there someplace else where second-round presidential figures + maps ***by constituency*** are available--***where I do not need to subscribe?!?***

*Please* help.

Here

[adma]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

The La Provence map/results site seems to have gone subscription-only.  Is there someplace else where second-round presidential figures + maps ***by constituency*** are available--***where I do not need to subscribe?!?***

*Please* help.

Here

Half good.  Gives shares; not figures.  (Is there a Ministère de l'Intérieur link to figures?  I knew there was one for the first round via Excel, but I forgot it.  Is there one for the second round?)

[TheSaint250]

Is Le Pen in a good position to win?  I saw the poll of her constituency, and she was at 44%, but the pollster didn't poll the second round.  Also, is Mélenchon a candidate this time around?

[jeron]

Clearly it's getting the votes of former PS voters. Jesus F**king Christ this is disgusting.

The PS is disgusting

[Poirot]

is Mélenchon a candidate this time around?

He is running in Marseille in 4th circonscription Bouches-du-Rhône. The incumbent is PS.

[brucejoel99]

Is Le Pen in a good position to win?  I saw the poll of her constituency, and she was at 44%, but the pollster didn't poll the second round.  Also, is Mélenchon a candidate this time around?

Ifop (the pollster in ?) actually did poll her 2nd round but La Voix du Nord (whom Ifop did the poll for) refused to release the result of the runoff b/c the gap between the candidates was supposedly too small... so what does that tell you??

Mélenchon is standing as a candidate in Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th constituency, in Marseille. He came 1st in the city during the 1st round of the presidential election, w/ almost 25% of the vote, & in the constituency he received 39.09%, far ahead of both Macron & Le Pen & one of his best scores nationally. The constituency is currently held by Socialist deputy Patrick Mennucci, considered a "friend" by Mélenchon himself. (2 polls have been done of the constituency, w/ Mélenchon topping the 1st round at 35% & 38% over the LREM candidate's 26% & 24%, respectively, & then winning the 2nd round w/ 56% & 53% to LREM's 44% & 47%, respectively.)

[Umengus]

Is Le Pen in a good position to win?  I saw the poll of her constituency, and she was at 44%, but the pollster didn't poll the second round.  Also, is Mélenchon a candidate this time around?

Ifop (the pollster in ?) actually did poll her 2nd round but La Voix du Nord (whom Ifop did the poll for) refused to release the result of the runoff b/c the gap between the candidates was supposedly too small... so what does that tell you??

the gap between the candidates (other than marine) of the first round... So the result of the runoff was maybe very good for Marine Le Pen.

Anyway, she's in good position to win.

[Tirnam]

Turnout at 5pm: 40.75% (-7.56 compared to 2012)

Ifop final turnout estimate: 50%

[Tirnam]

Due to this low turnout the number of tirangulaires should be very low.

[Umengus]

Turnout at 5pm: 40.75% (-7.56 compared to 2012)

Ifop final turnout estimate: 50%

in the polls, turnout was estimated at 60 %. So maybe a suprise in the final result. Strong abstention is good for LR and Lrem, bad for FN and FI.

[TheSaint250]

When do the first results start coming in?

[Umengus]

When do the first results start coming in?

8 pm but it will be some results (rumors, polls,...) before on twitter.

[Andrea]

Results from Outre-mèr (Martinique, Guadalupe, St Pierre, St Bartholemy, St Martin, Guyane, Wallis & Futuna, Caledonie) are already available on twitter.

1 elected on first round. Another with more than 50% but forced to second round by low turnout. 1 incumbent already eliminated.