French Legislative Election 2017

[DavidB.]

This is going to be flawless and beautiful.

[Umengus]

First exit poll

LREM: 30
LR: 19-20
FN: 17
FI: 12
PS: 7-8

[Tender Branson]

I wonder how many candidates will actually win 50%+ today, but will have to go to Round 2 because of the crappy turnout (requirement) today ...

[SunSt0rm]

RTBF exit poll

LREM 32%
LR 20,5%
FN 18%
FI 11%
PS 6%

If this poll is true, it means a complete collapse of the left
 

[Lord Halifax]

First exit poll

LREM: 30
LR: 19-20
FN: 17
FI: 12
PS: 7-8

by whom?

[SunSt0rm]

First exit poll

LREM: 30
LR: 19-20
FN: 17
FI: 12
PS: 7-8

by whom?

Belgian newspaper

https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_elections-en-france-la-participation-en-baisse-a-midi-a-19-24?id=9630709

[jaichind]

RTBF exit poll

LREM 32%
LR 20,5%
FN 18%
FI 11%
PS 6%

If this poll is true, it means a complete collapse of the left
 

Sum of all these votes are 87.5%.  So I assume the LREM number does not include MoDem, the LR number does not include UDI and misc right, the PS number does not include EELV and PRG?  And even then these numbers seems too low.

[jaichind]

I wonder how many candidates will actually win 50%+ today, but will have to go to Round 2 because of the crappy turnout (requirement) today ...

The threshold to get to second round is 12.5% of registered voter.  I forgot, What is the threshold to win on the first round?

[SunSt0rm]

I wonder how many candidates will actually win 50%+ today, but will have to go to Round 2 because of the crappy turnout (requirement) today ...

The threshold to get to second round is 12.5% of registered voter.  I forgot, What is the threshold to win on the first round?

25% registered voters

[jaichind]

RTBF exit poll

LREM 32%
LR 20,5%
FN 18%
FI 11%
PS 6%

If this poll is true, it means a complete collapse of the left
 

This plus the low turnout means the 12.5% will crush the PS and EELV.  I suspect in some places it will hurt FI as well.

[FredLindq]

Selon une première estimation nationale, fondée sur les "bureaux test", l’abstention est de 50,5%. Le mouvement La République En Marche obtiendrait 32,7%, les Républicains, 21,4%, le FN, 13,1%, France insoumise 10,7%, le PS, avec les Radicaux de gauche 9%, le Parti communiste 3,9% et Europe/Ecologie-Les Verts 3,1%. Des résultats plus précis sont attendus vers 19h30

I wonder how many candidates will actually win 50%+ today, but will have to go to Round 2 because of the crappy turnout (requirement) today ...

The threshold to get to second round is 12.5% of registered voter.  I forgot, What is the threshold to win on the first round?

[jaichind]

Selon une première estimation nationale, fondée sur les "bureaux test", l’abstention est de 50,5%. Le mouvement La République En Marche obtiendrait 32,7%, les Républicains, 21,4%, le FN, 13,1%, France insoumise 10,7%, le PS, avec les Radicaux de gauche 9%, le Parti communiste 3,9% et Europe/Ecologie-Les Verts 3,1%. Des résultats plus précis sont attendus vers 19h30

The PS numbers look better on this one and FN a lot worse. 

[jaichind]

Any links for results once we hit 8pm Paris time ?

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll:

LREM-MoDem 32.2%
LR-UDI 21.5%
FN 14%
FI 11%
PS 10.2%
EELV 3%

LREM-MODem 390-430
LR-UDI 85-125
PS 20-35
FI 11-21
FN 3-10
Others 7-12

[jaichind]

LREM   32.2    390-430
LR       21.5      85-125
FN       14           3-10
FI        11         11-21
PS       10.2      20-35
Other    3.3        7-12
EELV     3

PS over-performed, FN under-performed.

[Tirnam]

For Elabe FN is at 13%

[jaichind]

Kantar Sofres seems to have

LREM    33.5
LR        20.8
FN        13.1
FI         11.3
PS+        9.5

[Devout Centrist]

Get dunked on, Le Pen

[Barnes]

FN continues to display its electoral incompetence. Jolly good!

[Tirnam]

Elabe projection

LREM: 32.6%
LR: 20.9%
FN: 13.1%
FI: 11%
PS: 9%

Seats
LREM: 415-445
LR: 80-100
PS: 30-40
FI: 10-20
FN: 1-4

[jeron]

Kantar Sofres seems to have

LREM    33.5
LR        20.8
FN        13.1
FI         11.3
PS+        9.5

Which means 400-440 seats for LREM
FN 2-5
LR 95-132
LFI 13-23
PS 15-25

[Andrea]

Following run offs in La Reunion


1ère circonscription : Ericka Bareigts (PS) et Jean-Jacques Morel (union de droite)
2ème circonscription : Huguette Bello (PLR) et Cyrille Melchior (union de droite)
3ème circonscription : Nathalie Bassire  (union de droite) et Jacquet Hoarau (France Réunion Avenir)
4ème circonscription : David Lorion (union de droite) et Virginie Gobalou (Progres)  
5ème circonscription : Daniel Gonthier (union de droite) et Jean-Hugues Ratenon(Rézistans 974)
6ème circonscription : Monique Orphé (REM) et Nadia Ramassamy (union de droite)
7ème circonscription : Thierry Robert (LPA) et Fabrice Marouvin (divers droite)

[Kamala]

Elabe projection

LREM: 32.6%
LR: 20.9%
FN: 13.1%
FI: 11%
PS: 9%

Seats
LREM: 415-445
LR: 80-100
PS: 30-40
FI: 10-20
FN: 1-4

Absolutely glorious.

[jeron]

Runoffs in Alpes de Haute Provence:
1: Bagarry (EM) - Brun (FN)
2: Castaner (EM) - Walter (LFI)

Margins are quite large and EM should win both easily.

[mvd10]

There will be a lot of LR-LREM duels with these numbers right? I hope LR atleast wins over 100 seats. But surely this campaign will hurt Baroin's chances in 2022?