French Legislative Election 2017

[parochial boy]

At 6% in the polls, it will be an uphill battle for the PS to win anything at all, which could at least mean the consolation of seeing Myriam El Khomri kicked out.

But then again, Macron won easily in Paris-18, so she sadly probably will make it.

Le Foll has got to be in danger though.

[windjammer]

Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.

If this is the result in the end, En Marche is going to get 400 deputies.

[Chickpeas]

Is it likely any of memers of the cabinet will switch parties to En Marche! if they are victorious in the legislative elections?

Particularly thinking of Philippe and other members of LR who have been expelled from the party?

[Tirnam]

Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.

If this is the result in the end, En Marche is going to get 400 deputies.

According to this website, that would mean 427 deputies for LREM / MoDem. Of course it's just a national projection, every constituency has a different local context.

[windjammer]

Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.

If this is the result in the end, En Marche is going to get 400 deputies.

According to this website, that would mean 427 deputies for LREM / MoDem. Of course it's just a national projection, every constituency has a different local context.

Well, when a party leads by more than 10 points, it means a landslide a la 2002 or even better 1993. The only problem with EM I believe is that their results are probably relatively homogeneous everywhere while for example the FN/LR have some bastions, the same problem that had the Libdems in 2010.

I have no doubts a so big lead would end up with something like 400 deputies or more

[jaichind]

According to this website, that would mean 427 deputies for LREM / MoDem. Of course it's just a national projection, every constituency has a different local context.

Wow.  In all three scenarios PS gets wiped out ending up with single digits in terms of seats.

[Tirnam]

OpinionWay

LREM: 27% (280-300 deputies out of 535, without Corsica, overseas and French abroad)
LR: 20% (150-170)
FN: 20% (10-15)
FI: 14% (20-25)
PS: 11% (40-50)

PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll, LREM 5 points behind its score in the Harris poll. The presidential polls were more consistent.

[Zuza]

PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll

That's partially because Harris counts PS and EELV separately (together they would have 9 %).

[Tirnam]

PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll

That's partially because Harris counts PS and EELV separately (together they would have 9 %).

Right, but since EELV and PS will face on in more than 400 constituencies it doesn't make sense to do that.

Poll, Harris Interactive, Bouches-du-Rhône, 4th (13-04)

Mélenchon (FI): 35%
Versini (LREM): 25%
Menucci (PS): 13%
Marti (FN): 12%
Biaggi (LR): 9%

Second round between Mélenchon and Versini, Mélenchon wins between 52% and 60%

(this poll is really close to the projection made by the website that I mentioned earlier)

[jaichind]

PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll

That's partially because Harris counts PS and EELV separately (together they would have 9 %).

Right, but since EELV and PS will face on in more than 400 constituencies it doesn't make sense to do that.

Poll, Harris Interactive, Bouches-du-Rhône, 4th (13-04)

Mélenchon (FI): 35%
Versini (LREM): 25%
Menucci (PS): 13%
Marti (FN): 12%
Biaggi (LR): 9%

Second round between Mélenchon and Versini, Mélenchon wins between 52% and 60%

(this poll is really close to the projection made by the website that I mentioned earlier)

Wait.  I thought PS and EELV have an alliance? Or is that off ?

[Tirnam]

They have an alliance for around 100 constituencies. EELV endorses 52 PS candidates, PS endorses 49 EELV candidates.

[jaichind]

They have an alliance for around 100 constituencies. EELV endorses 52 PS candidates, PS endorses 49 EELV candidates.

I cannot believe this. PS is about to face total wipe-out and single digit seats and they cannot get a total alliance with EELV in all seats.

[Tintrlvr]

They have an alliance for around 100 constituencies. EELV endorses 52 PS candidates, PS endorses 49 EELV candidates.

I cannot believe this. PS is about to face total wipe-out and single digit seats and they cannot get a total alliance with EELV in all seats.

I think most of the seats with two candidates are no-hopers anyway, and they appease big personalities. But never underestimate the French left's ability to shoot itself in the foot even after the other leg has already been shot clean off.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

[parochial boy]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

[Bumaye]

http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/05/Rapport-Harris-Indeed-Intentions-vote-elections-legislatives-LCP.pdf  
  
Harris has kinda confirmed yesterdays poll:  
  
EM + MoDem: 32%  
FN: 19%  
LR + UDI: 18% (-1)  
FI: 16% (+1)  
PS: 6%  
EELV: 3%  
DF: 3%  
PCF: 2%  

[Zanas]

It's gonna be an LR(M) absolute majority folks. Not a very wide one, but an absolute majority nonetheless. The question is will it be able to stay stable for 5 years.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder if this will continue on down to a municipal level. Is Hidalgo, for example, popular enough to survive the apocalyPSe?

[Zanas]

2020 will be a different shyt altogether. By then, the government will be massively unpopular, as they always are after 2-3 years in power, and you'll have to distance yourself from it as much as possible to keep your city.

[Upsilon]

2020 will be a different shyt altogether. By then, the government will be massively unpopular, as they always are after 2-3 years in power, and you'll have to distance yourself from it as much as possible to keep your city.

So true. That's what makes French politics so fun.

[Tirnam]

NKM in the 2nd constituency of Paris will have two contenders on the right, the mayor of the VIth arrondissement of Paris and Henri Guaino.

Not sure how she will survive in a constituency where Macron did well.

[Former President tack50]

2020 will be a different shyt altogether. By then, the government will be massively unpopular, as they always are after 2-3 years in power, and you'll have to distance yourself from it as much as possible to keep your city.

To be fair, didn't Sarkozy win his election after like 12 years of Chirac? (who was from his party)

Or is this something new?

[Zanas]

NKM in the 2nd constituency of Paris will have two contenders on the right, the mayor of the VIth arrondissement of Paris and Henri Guaino.

Not sure how she will survive in a constituency where Macron did well.

Well, there is an LRM candidate, Gilles Legendre, but afaik he's a nobody, and NKM is quite Macron-compatible, and quite a good match for this constituency. Incidentally, this is where I'm registered to vote! But I'm leaning on not voting at all for now.

2020 will be a different shyt altogether. By then, the government will be massively unpopular, as they always are after 2-3 years in power, and you'll have to distance yourself from it as much as possible to keep your city.

To be fair, didn't Sarkozy win his election after like 12 years of Chirac? (who was from his party)

Or is this something new?

No, you're missing the point. I'm only talking about the local "mid-term" elections, who have all been disasters for the party in charge nationally for the last 20 years at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

[windjammer]

Ugh Mélenchon needs to f**k off. What a piece of sh*t. I'd honestly vote for the LREM guy over him in that constituency if that's the choice.

Really? Given that Macron's cabinet makes it look like he intends to govern as a more socially liberal version of LR, I would have thought it was crucial to put as many left-wingers in parliament as remotely possible.

The French left will never be able to rebuild as long as Mélenchon has any influence within it, because all Mélenchon wants is to destroy any left-wing force that isn't his own personality cult. He doesn't care about actually changing people's lives. He's happy to stay in the opposition forever, as long as it gives him the role of a hero. He's a self-serving megalomaniac clown and the left-wing opposition to FBM deserves better.

To be honest, all current leftwing parties must be destroyed as they are led by incompetent morons, the Hollande presidency proving this point. So if he could destroy, that would be a good thing.