French Legislative Election 2017
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Author Topic: French Legislative Election 2017  (Read 97571 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #300 on: May 30, 2017, 12:23:48 PM »

Huh, for some reason expats vote on June 3 for the first round. Good thing I found out in time.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #301 on: May 30, 2017, 02:23:02 PM »

I'd say the election is pretty much done. REM will get a larger majority than the Socialists have now or close to it. What will be interesting to see on Election Day and after will be:

1. How well FN will do
2. How well LR will do and if they will be the "official" opposition party
3. How hard PS will crash and burn
4. If candidates that are not registered with REM being their official party will separate themselves down the road.

Number 4 will be interesting to see. I'm not sure how many candidates (and subsequent victors) have REM as their official party, but could the others abandon the movement and return to being faithful members of their parties if things go downhill? REM being a movement as well as a party opens up a reasonable set of questions and a clouded future for how the government will operate over the next 5 years.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #302 on: May 30, 2017, 02:57:07 PM »

I think that, while LREM are clearly going to be the largest party by some margin in the first round, they won't win that huge of a majority.

Remember that in the second rounds, LREM candidates are going to be coming up against much more region appropriate candidates than Le Pen was - a PS or FI candidate in the Lot or Ariège; or conversely an LR candidate in Haute-Savoie or Loiret is going to puch up a much sterner challenge than Le Pen did. And bear in mind that the nature of a triangulaire means you can't just expect that all right-wing voters would jump over to an LREM candidate in the case of an FI/PS one winning in the first round
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #303 on: May 30, 2017, 07:13:22 PM »

Excuse my ignorance, but in the first round don't candidate who get 12.5%+ make it to the second round? Or is it top 2?
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #304 on: May 30, 2017, 07:17:55 PM »

Excuse my ignorance, but in the first round don't candidate who get 12.5%+ make it to the second round? Or is it top 2?

It's 12.5% of registered voters, I believe.
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Barnes
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« Reply #305 on: May 30, 2017, 08:12:21 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2017, 10:46:20 PM by Barnes »

Excuse my ignorance, but in the first round don't candidate who get 12.5%+ make it to the second round? Or is it top 2?

If no candidate gets a majority of all registered voters, then any candidate who recieved at least 12.5% of registered voters can participate in the second round. If no one meets that threshold, then the top two candidates go to the second round.  

Any candidate who makes the second round can withdraw before the date of the election, and to win you only need a majority of votes actually cast.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #306 on: May 31, 2017, 05:29:40 AM »

Excuse my ignorance, but in the first round don't candidate who get 12.5%+ make it to the second round? Or is it top 2?

If no candidate gets a majority of all registered voters, then any candidate who recieved at least 12.5% of registered voters can participate in the second round. If no one meets that threshold, then the top two candidates go to the second round.  

Any candidate who makes the second round can withdraw before the date of the election, and to win you only need a majority of votes actually cast.

Adding to this slightly - if only one candidate gets more than 12.5% of registered voters, but falls short of 50% of votes, there will be a second round, even if the second placed candidate wins less than 12.5% of registered voters

Likewise, in order to win in the first round, a candidate needs to win over 50% of votes, but also over 25% of registered voters. It is therefore possible (and has happened in the past) for someone to win over 50% of votes, but for there still to be a second round as a result of low turnout.

Also, as an example of how hillariously balkanised the left is at the moment - the following 6 candidates are all standing in Haute-Savoie 4 (in a part of the country with absolutely no left wing tradition):
Annie Anselme   (PCF - Front de gauche)               
Anne Favrelle (PS)            
Sabrina Ghoual (Lutte Ouvrière)                     
Michèle Kobus (FI)                     
Patrick Royer (Mouvement 100%) ecologists            
Catherine Walthert Selosse (EELV)

Amusingly, a Savoie independentist and and Islamist are also standing in the constituency.
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Zuza
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« Reply #307 on: May 31, 2017, 07:35:07 AM »

in a part of the country with absolutely no left wing tradition
This could be one of the reasons why there are so many left-wing candidates: if any of them had a chance to win, it would make sense for some of the others to endorse him.
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Barnes
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« Reply #308 on: May 31, 2017, 09:09:10 AM »

Thanks for the extra info, Parochial Boy! This system is so amusingly Byzantine.
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jaichind
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« Reply #309 on: June 01, 2017, 10:57:08 AM »

(Bloomberg) -- French President Emmanuel Macron’s party La Republique en Marche is set to win an absolute majority in June parliamentary elections, according to a projection by OpinionWay based on polling data.
Voter support for La Republique en Marche in first round of elections climbs to 29%, up 1 point from May 25 poll
La Republique en Marche projected to get 335-355 seats of the 577 seats in France’s National Assembly
Support for Republicans and partner UDI stable at 20%
Republicans, UDI projected to get 145-165 seats
Support for National Front party of Marine le Pen falls 1 pt to 18%
National Front projected to get 7-17 seats
Support for La France Insoumise party of Jean-Luc Melenchon falls 2 pts to 13%
La France Insoumise projected to get 24-31 seats
Support for Socialist party and allies falls 1 pt to 9% 
Socialist party and allies projected to get 20-35 seats
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #310 on: June 01, 2017, 02:44:11 PM »

Anyone thinks Ferrandgate could seriously hurt LREM? It hasn't yet, but it seems to be slowly building up like Penelopegate did back in February.
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windjammer
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« Reply #311 on: June 01, 2017, 03:15:03 PM »

Anyone thinks Ferrandgate could seriously hurt LREM? It hasn't yet, but it seems to be slowly building up like Penelopegate did back in February.
Honestly? No.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #312 on: June 01, 2017, 05:37:48 PM »

Anyone thinks Ferrandgate could seriously hurt LREM? It hasn't yet, but it seems to be slowly building up like Penelopegate did back in February.

What limited the damage on LREM was the first step on Macron on the international stage, unanimously applauded in France. This last two days, with no international agenda this scandal gained more public attention but I guess that changed tonight with the Trump decision on climate and the strong Macron reaction.

(And obviously there is no comparison between this Ferrand scandal and the Fillon scandal)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #313 on: June 01, 2017, 11:40:43 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2017, 11:42:24 PM by En Marche Forcée »

(And obviously there is no comparison between this Ferrand scandal and the Fillon scandal)

Sure, but the optics still look terrible. I don't think it's a big deal in and of itself, but if it can sink LREM a bit, I'll take it.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #314 on: June 01, 2017, 11:44:07 PM »

BTW, has anyone seen a poll of the 1st constituency for the French Abroad? It'd be helpful to see if there's a candidate worth voting tactically for or if there's no point.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #315 on: June 02, 2017, 01:34:26 AM »

No polls, and since the vote is Sunday probably no poll at all.

I would think that Lescure (LREM) will be way ahead (maybe above 50% but due to high abstention not elected in the first round) and that Lefebvre (LR) is the favorite to be in the runoff, but maybe there is a chance for a left-wing candidate to be second. But which left-wing candidate I don't know, Mélenchon has done a good score in that constituency, but FI is clearly down since the presidential election, and maybe that PS is not as dead for the French abroad than it is the people in France.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #316 on: June 02, 2017, 04:31:36 AM »

Poll Ipsos, Cévipof for Le Monde

LREM: 31%
LR: 22%
FN: 18%
FI: 11.5%
PS: 8.5%

Projection by seats
LREM: 395-425
LR: 95-115
PS: 25-35
FI: 10-20
FN: 5-15
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jaichind
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« Reply #317 on: June 02, 2017, 04:44:38 AM »

(Bloomberg) -- French President Emmanuel Macron’s party La Republique en Marche and partner MoDem would get 31% of the vote in the 1st round of parliamentary elections in June, according to a poll by Harris Interactive for LCP.
Support stable from May 29 poll
NOTE: France’s National Assembly has 577 seats
Support for National Front of Marine Le Pen falls 1 pt to 18%
National Front projected to get 8-22 seats in parliament
Republicans and partner UDI stable at 18%
Republicans, UDI projected to get 135-150 seats
Support for France Insoumise party of Jean-Luc Melenchon slips 3 points to 11%
France Insoumise projected at 15-25 seats
Socialist party, PRG support climbs 1 points to 8%
Socialist party, allies projected at 30-44 seats
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Bumaye
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« Reply #318 on: June 02, 2017, 07:38:37 PM »

I just noticed that in the latest Opinion Way Poll the left wing parties (LO, NPA, PCF, FI, ECO, EELV, PS, PRG, DVG) have 29% combined, as much as the centrist EM/MoDem. It's kinda stupid that they for one reason or the other don't work with each other to push for the common left course.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #319 on: June 02, 2017, 09:15:50 PM »

No polls, and since the vote is Sunday probably no poll at all.

I would think that Lescure (LREM) will be way ahead (maybe above 50% but due to high abstention not elected in the first round) and that Lefebvre (LR) is the favorite to be in the runoff, but maybe there is a chance for a left-wing candidate to be second. But which left-wing candidate I don't know, Mélenchon has done a good score in that constituency, but FI is clearly down since the presidential election, and maybe that PS is not as dead for the French abroad than it is the people in France.

Ugh, yeah, I really don't want to vote for FI.

Acceptable choices would be Socialists, EELV, commies, Nouvelle Donne, and a few of the other left-leaning indies.
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jaichind
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« Reply #320 on: June 02, 2017, 09:19:25 PM »

I just noticed that in the latest Opinion Way Poll the left wing parties (LO, NPA, PCF, FI, ECO, EELV, PS, PRG, DVG) have 29% combined, as much as the centrist EM/MoDem. It's kinda stupid that they for one reason or the other don't work with each other to push for the common left course.

But could you not make the same argument about the sum of the LR+UDI and FN vote shares.  Sure, there overlap between LR and FN is not large in terms policy but on the other hand the level of diversity of views between LR and FN are about the same as the diversity of views of all the Pan-Left parties.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #321 on: June 02, 2017, 09:54:16 PM »

I just noticed that in the latest Opinion Way Poll the left wing parties (LO, NPA, PCF, FI, ECO, EELV, PS, PRG, DVG) have 29% combined, as much as the centrist EM/MoDem. It's kinda stupid that they for one reason or the other don't work with each other to push for the common left course.

LO refuses to compromise with bourgeois parties.
NPA is nothing these days.
There is some EELV, PCF, left-wing of the PS in some areas. Main issue is than the right-wing of the party prefers Macron to the PCF and so, are totally fine with division.
FI wants a common left, at long it's dominating it.
PRG is part of the Macron block.
ECO is mainly right-wingers or the Lalanne personality cult.
DVG is mostly people with bad relationships with a party, locally (or left-wingers who failed to get the EM investiture)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #322 on: June 03, 2017, 12:07:03 AM »

If anyone is wondering, I've decided that I'll vote for Jocelyne Le Boulicaut (EELV) on the first round, and write in a fictional character in the inevitable LREM-LR runoff.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #323 on: June 03, 2017, 02:07:13 AM »

Le Monde, on why LREM could get a landslide majority, based on the Ipsos-Cévipof poll.

-LREM is way ahead in the first round (31% to 22% to LR, in the constituencies where LREM is actually opposed to LR it's 33% to 21%) and the LREM vote is high everywhere  with no area of weakness: LREM is ahead or slightly behind in the strongholds of PS, FI, FN or LR. Also that means that there is no incumbent advantage.
-Low turnout prevent high numbers of triangulaires, so in majority it will be duels with LREM gaining votes from every other parties.

Also in this Ipsos-Cévipol poll there is some interesting results about French society
-Homosexuality is an acceptable way to live his sexuality: Yes 71% (up 8 since 2015)
-Childs of immigrants born in France are as French as others: Yes 58% (+8)
-There is too many immigrants in France: Yes 53% (-7)
-France needs a strong leader who doesn't care about parliament or elections: Yes 42% (-10)
-Reinstate the death penalty: Yes 35% (-4)
-If the EU were abandoned tomorrow, what would you feel? Big regrets 53% (+9 since 2016), don't care 31% (-2), big relief 16% (-7)


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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #324 on: June 03, 2017, 03:58:30 AM »

Le Monde, on why LREM could get a landslide majority, based on the Ipsos-Cévipof poll.

-LREM is way ahead in the first round (31% to 22% to LR, in the constituencies where LREM is actually opposed to LR it's 33% to 21%) and the LREM vote is high everywhere  with no area of weakness: LREM is ahead or slightly behind in the strongholds of PS, FI, FN or LR. Also that means that there is no incumbent advantage.
-Low turnout prevent high numbers of triangulaires, so in majority it will be duels with LREM gaining votes from every other parties.

Also in this Ipsos-Cévipol poll there is some interesting results about French society
-Homosexuality is an acceptable way to live his sexuality: Yes 71% (up 8 since 2015)
-Childs of immigrants born in France are as French as others: Yes 58% (+8)
-There is too many immigrants in France: Yes 53% (-7)
-France needs a strong leader who doesn't care about parliament or elections: Yes 42% (-10)
-Reinstate the death penalty: Yes 35% (-4)
-If the EU were abandoned tomorrow, what would you feel? Big regrets 53% (+9 since 2016), don't care 31% (-2), big relief 16% (-7)




This is the most gladdening poll I've seen in weeks.
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