French Legislative Election 2017

[TheSaint250]

Since the presidential election is almost over and some polls are beginning to appear, I think it's time to start a thread discussing the French legislative election.

[TheSaint250]

I remember when EM was first announced, it was "a movement, not a political party." Is that still the case or has it transitioned into being a formal party? Is there even a legal difference, if so, what is it?

It seems to be a loose coalition that is slowly evolving into a political party.  Can't tell you for sure the difference since I don't live there, but that's my perspective.

[TheSaint250]

Time to discuss: how will Macron's win affect the legislative election?

(pretty obvious but wanted to ask anyway)

[TheSaint250]

I can't tell based off of just percentages, especially since France's elections have two rounds, but if the Harris poll is correct and FN gets 22% of the first-round vote, would this be outstanding?  How many seats would/could they get?

[TheSaint250]

So apparently EM (or LREM, now, I guess) won't ask candidates to leave their own parties, but it will ask them to run under its label and for a single parliamentary group. Good. That way we can tell the traitors from those worth supporting.

So it's sort of like a coalition AND a formal party?

[TheSaint250]

I'd say the election is pretty much done. REM will get a larger majority than the Socialists have now or close to it. What will be interesting to see on Election Day and after will be:

1. How well FN will do
2. How well LR will do and if they will be the "official" opposition party
3. How hard PS will crash and burn
4. If candidates that are not registered with REM being their official party will separate themselves down the road.

Number 4 will be interesting to see. I'm not sure how many candidates (and subsequent victors) have REM as their official party, but could the others abandon the movement and return to being faithful members of their parties if things go downhill? REM being a movement as well as a party opens up a reasonable set of questions and a clouded future for how the government will operate over the next 5 years.

[TheSaint250]

Apparently French people are going to give a legislative majority to ANYONE who's been elected President, no matter the circumstances.

Usually, that provides somewhat of an issue imo because that gives a president, no matter how bad later on, the majority to do what he or she wants. However, now it seems to be different since a good part of REM candidates are still part of different parties and could just split off and join their other parties' groups in the National Assembly if things go sideways for Macron.

I think they should have their legislative elections at different times, though, no a month after the presidential election.

[TheSaint250]

Ipsos poll for France Télévisions and Radio France

LREM: 29.5% (= since a week ago)
LR: 23% (+1)
FN: 17% (-1)
FI: 12.5% (+1)
PS: 8.5% (-0.5)

Seats projection
LREM: 385-415
LR: 105-125
PS: 25-35
FI: 15-22
FN: 5-15
Others: 3-7

Turnout: 60%

[TheSaint250]

Is Le Pen in a good position to win?  I saw the poll of her constituency, and she was at 44%, but the pollster didn't poll the second round.  Also, is Mélenchon a candidate this time around?

[TheSaint250]

When do the first results start coming in?

[TheSaint250]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

"Everyone to my right is a right-winger!"

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not right-wing at all imo

Wow you actually just made me like him that much more

[TheSaint250]

LREM is just another right-wing party, don't get all drama queen.

Girardin seems to have survived in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, but just.

"Everyone to my right is a right-winger!"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

not right-wing at all imo

Wow you actually just made me like him that much more

Fillon pledged €50 billion in tax cuts and €100 billion in spending cuts including cutting 500,000 public sector jobs. Why did you have to be so corrupt François, you could have made France great again ...

Lol.  I liked Le Pen (mainly based on anti-EU stance) but Fillon was easily a close second favorite. I liked  his tax plan

[TheSaint250]

So, is there any chance a part of Macron's deputies will revolt if Macron's economic agenda becomes unpopular? Or does France have very strong party discipline?

I mean, LREM candidates are complete nobodies with no party experience, so party tradition would be pretty irrelevant.

Yeah, this is why I wondered if there are chances of rebellions inside LREM. LREM undoubtedly attracted a lot of opportunists and I wonder how supportive of Macron they will be when his popularity slides. And most of LREM's voters and MP's probably were Socialists in the past, I really can't imagine they suddenly are infatuated with free markets.

So, is there any chance a part of Macron's deputies will revolt if Macron's economic agenda becomes unpopular?

"If"?

Yeah, you're right. The results will need to come before 2022. I've read somewhere that the main goal of Macron's economic stimulus plan (€50 billion of public investments) was to act as a sweetener for his deregulation agenda.

The thing about this too is that many running with REM are still technically registered with other parties.  That's what could make this supermajority so unstable. Many of them could easily jump ship back home.

On that note, how many presumptive winners running with REM are not registered with REM?

[TheSaint250]

LREM at 355? Wow.

That's IT?

[TheSaint250]

Anything about FN and FI?

[TheSaint250]

Which poll is more reliable?

[TheSaint250]

On the bright side for REM, they underperformed bigly according to the pre-ED seat projections, but they still have a bigger majority than PS did.

[TheSaint250]

Le Pen elected too.

Underperformance, overperformance, or expected?

[TheSaint250]

Kantar-Sofres:
- La République en marche : 315 sièges
- Les Républicains/UDI/Divers droite : 133 sièges
- MoDem : 45 sièges
- Parti socialiste : 32 sièges
- La France insoumise : 17 sièges
- Parti radical de gauche/Divers gauche : 13 sièges
- Parti communiste : 9 sièges
- Front national : 6 sièges
- Autres (Debout la France, régionalistes, extrême droite) : 6 sièges
- Écologistes : 1 siège

Wow

[TheSaint250]

Valls reelected

Ew

[TheSaint250]

Le Pen called for proportional voting system. Just curious, what is REM's position on that? I'm guessing that just like the others they don't want to give FN a better advantage.

[TheSaint250]

Le Pen called for proportional voting system. Just curious, what is REM's position on that? I'm guessing that just like the others they don't want to give FN a better advantage.

FBM promised it during his campaign. Pretty sure he'll "forget" about it pretty soon.

lol

[TheSaint250]

FN is at 9 seats now?

[TheSaint250]

Didn't Valls say something pretty racist a few years back?

[TheSaint250]

Is the new LRCUDI group a de facto part of the majority?