French Legislative Election 2017

[Zuza]

I recently tried to imagine the legislatives, and came to conclusion that EM and LR will emerge as 2 major players with 40+ % seats each, so I'm not surprised to see this poll.

But are there any other realistic scenarios? Quite a time ago, before the second round, somebody in the presidential elections poll described 4 possible outcomes; most likely, according to him, was collapse of both LR and PS and their partial absorption by EM. Or maybe PS will be able to rebound somewhat after Hamon's disaster? In principle it is still a large party with a strong local base (which EM apparently lacks). I personally don't believe in this, though.

What will most likely be Macron's coalition if EM won't win majority? EM-PS, EM-LR or will it just be enough for some deputies from either PS or LR to switch to EM after the election?

[Zuza]

Is it possible UDI will work with EM! instead of LR?

My understanding is that UDI and LR already have an alliance worked out with UDI getting a certain bloc of seats.

Yes, Wikipedia tells 96 constituencies are reserved for UDI candidates. Also, if I remember correctly, no one of UDI leaders endorsed Macron during the presidential election. If they continued to support Fillon who was corrupt, massively unpopular and ideologically way to the right of them, I would be very surprised if they will break their alliance with LR now.

[Zuza]

By the way, could EELV (or a part of it) join Macron's coalition?

[Zuza]

Valls won't be LREM candidate in his constituency.

Could he run in another constituency? Or just say " it" and run as an independent in his own constituency? (is he well liked there in the first place?)

I think he'll run in his constituency.
The fact that he didn't even think to confirm his switch with the higher ups of EM (i.e EM himself) before announcing it, is just staggeringly bad political strategy.
PS have started an exclusion procedure against him.

Will this incident stop other possible defectors from PS? Or, maybe, Valls is an exception and most of them will be welcomed to LREM with open arms?

[Zuza]

Is PCF still something relevant? With 1-2 % in opinion polls, it seems they diminished to the level of Trotskyists.

[Zuza]

Wikipedia tells LREM will announce the full list of candidates on 11 May. I suspect this means it's already too late for possible PS, LR and other defectors to join LREM. Or maybe Macron will somehow make an exception and find place for some of them?

[Zuza]

Is PCF still something relevant? With 1-2 % in opinion polls, it seems they diminished to the level of Trotskyists.

They have a strong local government base in parts of the country, notably in old red belt of working class residential areas around (well these days in in all senses except officially, and not even in the outer ring...) Paris and some areas of former heavy industry:



Of course given that French Commie Local Government was almost as good an argument against Communism as the USSR this fact is a bit of a mystery, but such is France.

It's so strange to see half of the Seine-Saint-Denis won by the right...

[Zuza]

Aren't these gender quotas enforced by law? I heard party can ignore this law but in that case it's public funding is reduced.

[Zuza]

How is this a quota? They didn't stop anyone from running.

Of course it is.  REM has 428 positions to fill as those with a REM ticket.  Out of the 19,000 or so candidates that applied REM choose among the candidates such so that the 428 candidates picked are exactly 214 male and 214 female.  That is a quota.  

Of course any of the 19,000 candidates rejected are free to run as an independent but the application process was for the REM candidate of which can be only 428 of them.

For the record, it is the law that forces that. If there isnt an equal number of men and women, they get fined.

Oh, if that is the case then certainly it is my misunderstanding.  If so then I would expect that other parties like LR FN and PS to also have equal number of men and women candidates or do they pay the fine?  Of course all this means is that my ire is turned against this law versus REM.  

In 2012 PS obeyed the law and nominated 49 % women, while UMP, from what I know, preferred to pay the fine.

[Zuza]

In 2012 PS obeyed the law and nominated 49 % women, while UMP, from what I know, preferred to pay the fine.

I looked this up.  It seems this law mandating 50/50 in terms of gender which I totally oppose only is in play for PR seats.

Where does France use PR at all? Only in regional and European elections?

Well, I can believe that maintaining gender equality in the lists of candidates is entirely voluntary. Even FN list has "near-gender parity".

[Zuza]

Still, PCF will take their 2 or 3 %, and their results will be higher in the places where the Left is strong (e. g. exactly in the same places where PS or FI candidates have a chance to make into the 2nd round). Another 1 or 2 % in such constituencies can go to Lutte Ouvrière. All this means that most likely only in very few places there will be a leftist in the 2nd round.

[Zuza]

PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll

That's partially because Harris counts PS and EELV separately (together they would have 9 %).

[Zuza]

in a part of the country with absolutely no left wing tradition

This could be one of the reasons why there are so many left-wing candidates: if any of them had a chance to win, it would make sense for some of the others to endorse him.

[Zuza]

Why can't Melenchon play nice with the Communists?

To be fair, the question can also exactly be asked in reverse.

Also, it's better they have two groups, that's twice the number of assisting positions, and they would have perpetually fought and eventually split rather sooner than later. And anyway, a 27-member group can't do much more than two 16-member and 15-member groups... They don't even have half a motion of no-confidence (58 seats needed) between them !

You know, at some point the left is going to have to form some semblance of unity if it is to ever have power again

That unity is going to come from the street, not from the National Assembly. Key question is if they can build NuitDebout into a larger movement, not whether their groups merge or not.

That still requires there to be a political force capable of capitalizing on a social movement like this. The PS doesn't seem like it can, while FI will always remain Mélenchon's personal vehicle.

And the problem with PCF, I guess, is that it still explicitly identifies as communist and/or is perceived by many as a relic of the past.

[Zuza]

Apparently Falorni (DVG) has said that they have around 20 deputies now: Valls, the PRG, others DVG and apparently some right-wing Radicaux.

So, no PS defectors aside from Valls and maybe some others who already left PS before the elections? This is somewhat surprising given that a large part of LR joined LRCUDI.