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Author Topic: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017  (Read 10546 times)
Kingpoleon
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« Reply #25 on: June 25, 2017, 01:11:47 pm »

Personally, I'm rooting for a ČSSD-TOP 09-KDU-ČSL-SPD coalition. ANO needs some reformism and to stop picking so many fights with the President before I would prefer them.
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« Reply #26 on: June 26, 2017, 11:47:20 am »

Personally, I'm rooting for a ČSSD-TOP 09-KDU-ČSL-SPD coalition. ANO needs some reformism and to stop picking so many fights with the President before I would prefer them.

The first three you mention could probably agree to a coalition with each other, but the problem is of course that they would be far from a majority. I don't understand the inclusion of SPD; I don't think any of the parties would prefer to work with Okamura. It would be a last attempt to prevent Babis from becoming PM, but I can't see such a strange cooperation happen. Also, the four of them would not even have a majority according to most polls.

I don't really understand your last line, especially because Babis has a quite good relationship with President Zeman compared to many other leading politicians.
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« Reply #27 on: June 26, 2017, 06:47:06 pm »

Babi's party in general has been a little too prone to fighting Zeman. Babi and Zeman both have unfortunate ties to Russia, as well.
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Diouf
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« Reply #28 on: July 07, 2017, 06:34:30 am »

There is some apprehension in the Christian Democrats around the alliance with STAN, since many polls show them just below the 10% threshold for alliances. A few regional party leaders and senators have stated that they should instead just let some STAN candidates run on their list (which I'm not sure STAN would accept). However, both KDU-CSL leader Pavel Belobradek and STAN leader Petr Gazdik stand firm and refer to the electoral advantage of being a larger party, both in terms of its influence and because the electoral system slightly favours bigger parties. They try to cast themselves as the sensible, localist, non-extremist party. They even explicitly warn against the dangers of a ANO-Communist pact. This does not seem like a bad pitch to make, so I have some confidence that they will make it, but we can only wait and see.

Quote
The coalition of the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the Mayors and Independents (STAN) will continue, the heads of the two parties said on Tuesday after a KDU-CSL board meeting that talked about opinion polls indicating that the coalition would fail in elections. The general election is due on October 20-21. The KDU-CSL is a junior government party, STAN is an opposition movement. Four different polls conducted last month indicated that the KDU/STAN alliance would win from 7.5 to 9 percent of the vote, while a two-party alliance needs at least 10 percent to enter the Chamber of Deputies. If the KDU-CSL ran alone, it would comfortably cross the 5-percent barrier for individual parties, the polls showed.

"We have a few more months and we are ready for it," KDU-CSL leader Pavel Belobradek told journalists. The situation is a challenge for the alliance to show that it is a force that is worth to be win people's support, Belobradek said. Belobradek said the coalition has not yet launched the intensive campaigning and voters still do not know its programme and candidates well.

Gazdik said voters still do not understand why the two parties made an election pact. He said parties that win over 10 percent of the vote get markedly more mandates than the smaller ones because the electoral system is more advantageous for bigger parties. If people do not want Babis to rule the country together with some extremist party, for example the Communists (KSCM), they should support the KDU/STAN coalition, Gazdik said. The polls showed that ANO and the KSCM would be able to form a government if elections were held now.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/07/07/kdu-%C4%8Dsl-stan-confirm-their-coalition-despite-unfavourable-polls
« Last Edit: July 07, 2017, 06:37:30 am by Diouf »Logged

Diouf
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« Reply #29 on: July 26, 2017, 01:39:20 pm »

The circus of Czech politics continue. Earlier this week, a majority in the Christian Democrat leadership decided, against the wishes of leader Pavel Belobradek, to terminate its electoral alliance with STAN and instead offer them some positions on the Christian Democrat lists. An offer STAN has now rejected, so both parties are now running on their own. The two last polls showed the alliance on 9.9% and 10.5% respectively...

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A crushing majority of the Mayors and Independents' (STAN) national committee is for the movement running independently in the Czech general election to be held on October 20-21, its chairman Petr Gazdik said after the committee's meeting in the Chamber of Deputies on Tuesday

STAN reacts to the decision of the KDU-CSL from last week to change the form of their cooperation from the previously agreed election coalition to some STAN candidates running on the KDU-CSL's lists. The STAN leadership rejected the offered places on the KDU-CSL's lists of candidates to preserve its own identity, Gazdik added. The movement has already informed Belobradek on the result of Tuesday's talks by phone.

The voter support for STAN is about 2 percent only, according to opinion polls. "STAN will go to the election solo... We refuse to be part of the business with public opinion polls and to be accused of wasting voter support, gambling with the votes and contributing to the victory of Andrej Babis (chairman of ANO, the election favourite)," Gazdik said. He said STAN would like to address 250,000 voters who had supported it in the regional election last autumn if it decided to run independently. "This is the 5 percent in the national election that we would need in such a case," he said.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/07/26/stan-wants-run-independently-general-elections
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« Reply #30 on: August 11, 2017, 01:43:23 pm »

Police asks parliament to release Babis for prosecution!

Interesting to see whether this new step will change anything for Babis and ANO. I would tend to think the effect would be negligible as the case has been known for long and is not completely clear. But perhaps the authority of the police means that this request for prosecution will hurt him more than some of the other cases.

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The Czech police have asked the Chamber of Deputies to release government ANO chairman Andrej Babis and ANO deputy group head Jaroslav Faltynek for prosecution, Chamber chairman Jan Hamacek (Social Democrats, CSSD) tweeted today. The media have reported that the ANO politicians are prosecuted on suspicion of the unauthorised drawing of an EU subsidy for the Capi hnizdo farm in central Bohemia.

Babis said the police request is an attempt by the political system to liquidate him. "This is the last desperate attempt of the corrupt system to liquidate me and a long-planned operation aimed to criminalise me," Babis told daily Pravo."The timing is clear, it is an attempt to influence the elections," he said.

The prosecution of an MP requires the consent of the parliamentary house of which they are members. If either the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate denies the consent, the prosecution is impossible throughout the duration of the mandate. The police can possibly accuse them after the mandate expires.

The moral code of the ANO movement says its members will not apply their deputy or senator's immunity in case of criminal prosecution and they will ask the relevant committee to immediately propose their release for prosecution. The sole exception is possible prosecution for political statements made on parliament soil.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/08/11/police-seek-mps-babi%C5%A1-falt%C3%BDneks-release-prosecution
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« Reply #31 on: August 11, 2017, 01:55:13 pm »

Sounds like ANO is in for a not-so-fun time in the near future.

I think I'll be backing TOP 09 in these elections. I'm still wary of ODS after all of the events that led to their 2013 election collapse.
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« Reply #32 on: August 29, 2017, 06:35:37 am »

why two-day election?
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Diouf
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« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2017, 11:43:29 am »

Babis stripped of immunity today. Once re-elected in a month time, parliament would have to vote again to strip immunity again.

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Czech Lawmakers Vote to Force PM Candidate Babis to Face Fraud Charges

PRAGUE The Czech parliament's lower house voted on Wednesday to allow police to bring charges against Andrej Babis, the leading candidate to become prime minister after an election next month, in a case involving suspected abuse of European Union subsidies.

Babis, a billionaire businessman and founder of the ANO movement, denies any wrongdoing. He has repeatedly called the police actions against him a political ploy meant to hurt him in the Oct. 20-21 election.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/06/world/europe/06reuters-czech-politics-babis.html?partner=IFTTT
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« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2017, 12:39:55 pm »

Helpful academics from the Charles University are making a rolling polling average here: http://kdovyhrajevolby.cz/

With the wildy differing polls with different ways of showing their results, this is a great tool.

Babis and ANO are still far ahead in the polls with CSSD and KSCM in distant second and third positions.

It seems like Tomio Okamura's new outfit SPD will end above the threshold despite a plethora of right-wing parties running (and most established parties also very opposed to non-Western migration). SPD is at 7,64% in the polling average. Svobodni (Free Citizens) with MEP Petr Mach is closest to the threshold of the small right-wing parties. Svobodni is a libertarian party with a strong Eurosceptic and anti-immigration message. Nigel Farage participated in a few of their events. Several other parties cover the spectrum from far-right to out-right nazi; e.g. Bloc Against Islamization, Czech National Front, Realists, Workers' Party of Social Justice.

The Czech Pirate Party is above the 5%-threshold, largely due to a significant support from young and urban voters. The Pirates finished first in the secondary school election this week, where they received 24.5% of the votes. ANO and TOP09 both over 10%, while big, old parties like KDU-CSL, KSCM and CSSD all received less than 4%. The main talking points of the Pirates are transparency, opposition corruption, less surveillance etc. Party leader Ivan Bartos has also criticized Babis' biggest achievement, the electronic registration of sales (EET), which he believes is not a good solution for "online shops and small entrepreneurs".
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« Reply #35 on: October 09, 2017, 03:07:48 pm »

Babis has formally been charged.
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2017, 09:17:32 am »

Voting Intention according to age groups



Likely Voters aged 18-24



Likely Voters aged 65+


Voter movement since 2013

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Diouf
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2017, 09:52:48 am »

As the above voter movement shows, 22% of 2013 CSSD will now vote for ANO. Additionally ANO also attracts a lot of 2013 non-voters, particularly people with lower education,. The former non-voters make up more than one fifth of its current support.

Babis have warned against other parties trying to form a anti-ANO government, particularly aiming at TOP09 leader Miroslav Kalousek. "Kalousek is trying to form an anti-Babis government. He is trying to make his cabinet of traditional political parties. He scares people with nonsense without having a single piece of evidence to prove [his assertion about] ANO as a threat to democracy. I don't know how we could be threatening democracy." As the red line for government negotiations, Babis mentions maintaining the systems of the electronic registration of sales (EET) and the ledger statements. He said that there were good people in different parties with whom he could negotiate with, so he might be hoping for a post-election revolt in CSSD or ODS, which could bring about a new leader willing to talk to him. He also explicitly mentions the Pirates as a possible government partner:"I would have no problem [governing] with them. Let them be in charge of IT and digitisation, which is their strong side. Let them show how they will put things in order for the Czech Republic to become like Estonia, where people do not have to turn up at authorities personally". The Pirates have not closed the door completely, but says that coalition with Babis is very unlikely.

It has been announced that MEP Pavel Telička, who was the lead member for ANO in the 2014 European elections, is no longer affiliated to the party. He has a leading role in ALDE in the EP, but his disagreements with Babis has been clear for a while, particularly on European and Foreign policy.

ODS have again warned about a potential ANO, Communists, Okamura coalition after the elections, and that this would be "a fall to the political bottom and the worst threat to Czech democracy since 1989". Babis previously said he wouldn't form a cabinet with the Communists, but it could potentially be his last resort.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/10/11/ano-seeks-election-result-preventing-birth-anti-ano-govt
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« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2017, 06:56:57 am »

Today is the last day that pollsters can announce their results before the election. The final average from the researchers at Charles University is as follows:

ANO 26.18% (67 seats)
CSSD 13.13% (32)
KSCM 11.58% (27)
ODS 9.36% (20)
SPD 8.51% (18)
Pirates 6.98% (15)
TOP09 6.42% (11)
KDU-CSL 5.37% (10)
STAN 3.69% (0)
Greens 3% (0)
Free Citizens 2.25% (0)
Realists 0.98% (0)

ANO is still the clear front-runner, although they have dropped a bit over the last few months. Behind ANO, the picture is very fragmented, although the Social Democrats are bit ahead in the battle for 2nd. If one of the party leaders catches fire as the "anti-Babis" option in the last days, then that could potentially boost one of the parties by a lot, but there does not seem to be any obvious candidate for this. Many voters are still doubting their choice, and with a turnout that was only around 60% in 2013, mobilization of new voters could also make a big difference. It looks like the battle of the threshold will be intense. STAN is getting surprisingly close on its own, while the Christian Democrats looks likely to just make it. The Pirates need a strong youth vote to take their spots in parliament, while Okamura looks to have won the battle among the many far-right parties.

It still looks like Babis will need at least two parties to support him; the ANO-Communist-SPD option, which he has publicly rejected but the other parties keep warning about,  has a majority(112 seats out of 200). Babis hopes that there will be a revolution on one or more of the other parties after the election, but it is very hard to judge how likely this is. The best bid is perhaps ODS where current leader Petr Fiala has been very critical of Babis and basically ruled out cooperation, but perhaps Vaclav Klaus Jr could take control of the party, which would make cooperation more likely. Such a shift could perhaps open up for a "logical" ANO-ODS government, including or supported by SPD. President Zeman might try again to initate a riot in his former party CSSD, but after the failed attempt in 2013 and his increasingly hostile attitude towards Sobotka as PM, that looks less likely. However, even if coalition building looks difficult for Babis, it looks even more difficult to form one without him. The weird establishment option (CSSD, ODS, TOP09, KDU-CSL) is far from a majority (83 seats) and would be almost unworkable. Similarly a centre-leftish (KDU-CSL, CSSD, Pirates, Communists) majority looks far away (84), and would be extremely hard to navigate as well.
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« Reply #39 on: October 16, 2017, 08:11:53 pm »

I talked to my girlfriend who lives in the Czech earlier today and the election came up. She's pretty certain that the right will win, falling in line with recent trends through out all of Europe. Both of us are just waiting for the Commies to completely fall out in a few years since her family has a personal vendetta against them going back Husak in the 1980s
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« Reply #40 on: October 16, 2017, 09:11:03 pm »

I'm guessing she's counting ANO as a right party?

Also does your "girlfriend" know about your username?
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« Reply #41 on: October 16, 2017, 09:22:21 pm »

I'm guessing she's counting ANO as a right party?

Also does your "girlfriend" know about your username?

Yeah ANO is center right i think. And my user name is a reference to a guy on To Catch a Predator, Ive been in a relationship for 2 years actually so im not single and not from Texas. But he is also named Singletxguyforfun. You hear it and think he'd be a ripped ranch dude but he comes in and hes a fat awkward guy. If you have time, definitely watch. It's hilarious! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtHSujS7Vdc

Start at 6:00 for the best part
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« Reply #42 on: October 17, 2017, 03:51:22 am »

Some media outlets have speculated whether Babis can convince one of the mainstream parties to cooperation with the "Piln-model"; i.e. Babis not leading or being part of the government himself. The most talked about option is Environment Minister Richard Brabec, who was previously a manager in the chemical industry; some of the time in Babis companies.
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« Reply #43 on: October 18, 2017, 12:17:42 pm »

Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?
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« Reply #44 on: October 18, 2017, 04:08:16 pm »

Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Well, the general economic ideology seems relatively centrist, despite Babis talk of ruling as a "business man". ANO has largely accepted a Social Democrat policy with many wage increases and many public investments, the booming Czech economy has also meant that there haven't been a lot of pressure to make "tough decisions". In fact, several business have started to talk about a lack of workers, and Babis have suggested bringing in Eastern European workers, which several parties have attacked him on in recent days. I would think the economic policies of a future ANO-led cabinet will depend a lot on the coaliton partner. Babis main focus have been the EET, the electronic registration of all transactions of companies to avoid fraud. He will probably insist on keeping and expanding that system. He also wants a new VAT system to fight fraud better, but that probably needs a European consensus.

On immigration, he is, like most parties, very critical of non-western immigration, especially the EU refugee quotas. He is against a swift introduction of the euro, but is otherwise not that Eurosceptic, and underlines the economic benefits of the cooperation.

Like most protest movements, he also has a lot of big plans on how to make democracy better, abolish Senate, introduce FPTP, stronger executive etc.. If ANO ends up relying on Pirates or SPD, there might actually be some changes to the democratic system, although hopefully any small coalition partner will avoid a move to an unfair electoral system.
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« Reply #45 on: October 20, 2017, 04:38:53 am »

So polls are open from today 14.00-22.00 and tomorrow from 08.00-14.00.

The offical result page is here: https://volby.cz/

CTK television coverage should be here and currently works for me: http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

Additional coverage can be found at major newspapers like Blesk(tabloid) http://www.blesk.cz/ DNES(serious, centre-right, owned by Babis' Agrofert) http://zpravy.idnes.cz/ and the centre left (Pravo/Novinky): https://www.novinky.cz/

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« Reply #46 on: October 20, 2017, 04:54:33 am »

So polls are open from today 14.00-22.00 and tomorrow from 08.00-14.00.
What a bizarre way of setting poll opening hours.
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Diouf
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« Reply #47 on: October 20, 2017, 07:38:26 am »

Babis the first of the main players to cast his vote shortly after the polls open.

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« Reply #48 on: October 20, 2017, 09:52:59 am »

Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Vague populist bullsh!t.
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« Reply #49 on: October 20, 2017, 10:24:12 am »

Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Vague populist bullsh!t.
Berlusconism, but with fewer beautiful women.
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