Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Vague populist bullsh!t.

Berlusconism, but with fewer beautiful women.

Dear lord, third person from Poland on atlas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Vague populist bullsh!t.

Berlusconism, but with fewer beautiful women.

Dear lord, third person from Poland on atlas.

Ah.commers are taking over Atlas

[Diouf]

Turnout seems up so far and is expected to be in the low-mid sixties. It was 59.48% in 2013. If it ends above 64.47%, it will be the highest turnout since 1998.

[Diouf]

A half hour to polls close, and election coverage starts now. No polls in the last days, but it seemed like SPD and Pirates both had quite a lot of momentum during the campaign, and both parties have probably helped push turnout up. ANO faded somewhat during the election, so it would be interesting to see where they end up.

[Diouf]

It seems like there is no exit poll, but Nova has published this ordinary STEM poll from yesterday



SPD could become 2nd biggest party, CSSD drops to 4th while both KDU-CSL and TOP09 will fight against the threshold.

[Diouf]

The first result from the Pisek region in southern Czechia from one of the smallest polling places.

CSSD 5 votes
TOP09 5
KSCM 4
ANO 4
Pirates 1
SPD 1
ODS 1
STAN 1

Other smaller polling places are beginning to come in, although since none of the websites I'm looking at, is starting from a prognosis or exit poll, the results shown are only the currently counted, so will fluctuate a lot here in the beginning

[Diouf]

Poll, would you like Babis as PM



48% against, 47% for

[Double Carpet]

Well the official results page looks like it's crashed

[Diouf]

Well the official results page looks like it's crashed

These two works for me, although still very few votes countes

https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/domaci/volby/vysledky-voleb-do-poslanecke-snemovny-2017/r~191f2eecb57c11e7a9d00025900fea04/?redirected=1508588667#

http://www.blesk.cz/volby-do-poslanecke-snemovny-2017

[Double Carpet]

Thanks!

Also this one:

http://volby.idnes.cz/

So it's currently Babis, Okamura, Communists, Pirates as top 4.

Traditional big 2 of CSSD & ODS both under 10%.

TOP09 are below threshold and wonder if that's now curtains for them.

If Babis wants a 2-party govt are we looking at ANO + SPD?

Just out of interest, does anyone know why the Czechs vote over 2 days?

Thanks

[Diouf]

There is still barely any votes from Prague counted, which should give a lot of support to Pirates, ODS and TOP09, so I still think the latter has a decent chance as my understanding is that the sites are only aggregating counted votes, not making a projection. Both yes, looks terrible for CSSD

[Diouf]

2,43% counted in Prague. ANO at 20%, Pirates at 18, ODS at 15, TOP09 at 13.

TOP09 at 3,82 nationally now while STAN is at 5,06. They could very well move past each other as more urban votes come in

[parochial boy]

Quick question - as I understand it, alot of immigration into the wealthier Eastern European countries (inc Czechia) is from Ukraine.

When people talk about ANO or the likes of SPD being anti-immigrant, does that generally extent to Ukrainians? or are we very much talking about refugee crisis/Muslim immigration?

[Diouf]

Quick question - as I understand it, alot of immigration into the wealthier Eastern European countries (inc Czechia) is from Ukraine.

When people talk about ANO or the likes of SPD being anti-immigrant, does that generally extent to Ukrainians? or are we very much talking about refugee crisis/Muslim immigration?

The three biggest groups of foreigners in Czechia are Ukrainians, Slovakians and Vietnamese. The two first each have around 110.000 persons, while the latter is around 55.000. So not counting Slovakiains, Ukrainian and Vietnamese make up the biggest group of foreign workers.

Babis has talked about the need for more Eastern European workers, which especially CSSD and the Communists have criticized. I haven't seen SPD comment, but with Okamura being a business man with a foreign heritage, I would think that he would not be much opposed to the idea. However, most parties and inhabitants are strongly against Muslim immigration. Okamura with the most radical language and most focus on the issue.

[Diouf]

With 58% counted, STAN is at 5,01%!, while TOP09 is up at 4,17%. Prague is only 14% counted. ANO will probably also go a bit down since they are only at 20% in Prague versus 31% nationwide. Will be interesting if Babis can make a majority with one party only

[Diouf]

TOP09 at 4.39% with 72% counted, only 26% counted in Prague. STAN is actually at 4,93% in Prague, higher than I expected, so they probably have a chance to stay above the threshold

[Sestak]

If Babis can't make a majority himself, who is he most likely to coalition with? ODS? SPD? Or some kind of 3+-party arrangement?

[Diouf]

If Babis can't make a majority himself, who is he most likely to coalition with? ODS? SPD? Or some kind of 3+-party arrangement?

Well, that is the big question. Babis said before the election that he would not cooperate with SPD, Communists nor TOP09. ODS deputy leader has stated again today that they will not work with Communists or ANO, and the Pirate leader basically rejected cooperation with ANO. The current coalition partnernes, CSSD and KDU-CSL, have led a long campaign against Babis and removed him as Finance Minister shortly before the election. They haven't closed the door on ANO cooperation without Babis, but Babis himself has so far ruled out the Polish model. So if we strictly listen to what everyone has said in public, Babis will not be able to make a coalition unless he gets a majority on his own, which looks unlikely.

So in order for a coalition to be made, either Babis or one of the other parties will have to renege on its words. I find it hard to judge what is most likely; perhaps Babis and Okamura as fellow businessmen could work things out, but Babis also seems to consider Okamura as a unstable partner. An internal backlash in ODS that could bring Klaus Jr. to power looks less likely after a decent results.

[Diouf]

TOP09 at 4,68% nationwide with 88,81% counted, Prague 53% counted. Will be close to the end. I am not even sure how many seats they will get, if they cross the threshold. Probably 2/3 in Prague, party leader Kalousek will probably sneak in in the area around Prague (Středočeském), Jihočeském and Královéhradeckém could give them a seat each as well.

[Sestak]

If TOP09 cross the threshold and put ANO + SPD under 100, is there any chance of an ODS + Pirate + KSCM + CSSD + KDU-CDL + STAN + TOP09 coalition?

[Diouf]

Prague 6 where I lived has ANO in 3rd place so far, with Pirates and TOP09 slightly ahead

[Diouf]

If TOP09 cross the threshold and put ANO + SPD under 100, is there any chance of an ODS + Pirate + KSCM + CSSD + KDU-CDL + STAN + TOP09 coalition?

No, many of them would not want to touch the Communists. So any anti-Babis coalition looks even more difficult.

[Diouf]

TOP09 at 4,86% with 94% counted, 68% counted in Prague. The battle for 2nd place also looks extremely tight. ODS, SPD and Pirates are all between 10,4% and 11%, but SPD could end ahead in terms of seats as they are in play for those in most regions.

[Double Carpet]

Might ANO be able to govern as a minority and seek confidence & supply?

[Sestak]

now at 4.91 with 95% in...