Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
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  Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
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Author Topic: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017  (Read 19918 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #75 on: October 21, 2017, 10:12:40 AM »

Might ANO be able to govern as a minority and seek confidence & supply?

Perhaps an option. The other parties rejecting him will probably not change his mind, but maybe his own rejections of SPD and/or Communists can be removed if they are only support parties. However, governing as a minority would not fit well with his ideas of a strong executive that gets a lot done. President Zeman has previously shown himself willing to name cabinets without support in parliament, so he could make Babis PM, even if he would get a vote of no confidence right away.
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Diouf
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« Reply #76 on: October 21, 2017, 10:13:56 AM »


And Stan looks remarkably resilient. The KDU-CSL and STAN combined is safely above 10% Smiley
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Sestak
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« Reply #77 on: October 21, 2017, 10:16:08 AM »

4.96...

I think they're going to make it in.
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Diouf
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« Reply #78 on: October 21, 2017, 10:17:12 AM »

CSSD senator, former minister and presidential candidate Jiri Dienstbier said that CSSD has probably been to vague; caught between the clear messages on immigration and the euro by Babis and Okamura and the socially liberal, youngish message of the Pirates. Another huge beating for a Social Democratic party
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Sestak
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« Reply #79 on: October 21, 2017, 10:18:42 AM »

CSSD senator, former minister and presidential candidate Jiri Dienstbier said that CSSD has probably been to vague; caught between the clear messages on immigration and the euro by Babis and Okamura and the socially liberal, youngish message of the Pirates. Another huge beating for a Social Democratic party

Did Babis really have a clear message on the Euro though?
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Diouf
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« Reply #80 on: October 21, 2017, 10:20:20 AM »

CSSD senator, former minister and presidential candidate Jiri Dienstbier said that CSSD has probably been to vague; caught between the clear messages on immigration and the euro by Babis and Okamura and the socially liberal, youngish message of the Pirates. Another huge beating for a Social Democratic party

Did Babis really have a clear message on the Euro though?

That was perhaps more about Okamura, yes. Babis has not rejected it in principle, more that the Eurozone needs a lot of reform, Greece out etc.
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Diouf
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« Reply #81 on: October 21, 2017, 10:21:08 AM »

4.96...

I think they're going to make it in.

4,99%...
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #82 on: October 21, 2017, 10:22:15 AM »


And there's 5. They're in.
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Diouf
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« Reply #83 on: October 21, 2017, 10:24:53 AM »


6 seats so far. 3 in Prague, 1 to party leader Kalousek in the area around Prague, 1 in Jihočeském and 1 in Jihomoravském
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #84 on: October 21, 2017, 10:25:25 AM »

If they somehow lose 3 more seats then ANO + SPD will be impossible. Which tbh is optimal at this point.
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VPH
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« Reply #85 on: October 21, 2017, 10:28:44 AM »

Does anybody have a primer of what each party stands for? Where do the Pirates fall ideologically? I'm curious about what kind of government will form from this.
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #86 on: October 21, 2017, 10:33:28 AM »

Does anybody have a primer of what each party stands for? Where do the Pirates fall ideologically? I'm curious about what kind of government will form from this.

Don't exactly know all the details, but basically:

ANO: somewhat vague populist party led by a billionaire

ODS: Centrist-ish

SPD: Your obligatory Le Pen-esque far-righters

Pirates: Liberal/Slightly libertarian, focus on civil liberties

KSCM: Commies

CSSD: run-of-the-mill Social Democrats

KDU-CSL: Christian Democracy

TOP 09: Conservative pro-Euro

STAN: Anti-Centralization

Not completely sure about the last two though.
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Diouf
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« Reply #87 on: October 21, 2017, 10:41:01 AM »

Vaclav Klaus jr. is probably making daddy proud today; he is getting a brilliant election in Prague. Preferenced by 22,6% of ODS voters, which raises him from 3rd to 1st on the ODS list. The 4th and last seat for ODS in Prague looks to be taken by Pavel Žáček, who was only 17th in the last, but quite well-known as investtigator of communist crimes as director of the Institute for the Study of Totalitarian Regimes. Will be interesting how the internal games of ODS play out.

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Diouf
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« Reply #88 on: October 21, 2017, 10:45:30 AM »

Does anybody have a primer of what each party stands for? Where do the Pirates fall ideologically? I'm curious about what kind of government will form from this.

Don't exactly know all the details, but basically:

ANO: somewhat vague populist party led by a billionaire

ODS: Centrist-ish

SPD: Your obligatory Le Pen-esque far-righters

Pirates: Liberal/Slightly libertarian, focus on civil liberties

KSCM: Commies

CSSD: run-of-the-mill Social Democrats

KDU-CSL: Christian Democracy

TOP 09: Conservative pro-Euro

STAN: Anti-Centralization

Not completely sure about the last two though.


ODS is relatively similar to the Tories in UK, and has been a stable partner for them in the EP. It probably even has somewhat similar splits between somewhat Eurosceptic and quite economically conservative figures (Fiala) and those who advocate very strong Eurosceptic tendencies (Klaus Jr).

Other than that, around right. TOP09 is the closest you get to a standard European Social Liberal urban-based party.
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Diouf
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« Reply #89 on: October 21, 2017, 10:52:45 AM »

21-year old Dominik Feri, student and actor of ethiopian heritage, received 19,4% preferences on the TOP09 Prague list and will therefore get the party's 2nd seat there despite a low placement as 36.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #90 on: October 21, 2017, 11:37:50 AM »

Here is the official results page:

https://www.volbyhned.cz/ps2017/ps_celk_en.html

Almost 100% counted.

Turnout: 60.8% (+1.3)

As Austria the week before, the Czechs also shifted strongly to the Right.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #91 on: October 21, 2017, 11:45:44 AM »

From what I understand, some 70% voted for Center-Right parties (which would be even more than the 58% in Germany and 63% in Austria).
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #92 on: October 21, 2017, 11:49:01 AM »

With 99.7% reporting, ANO+SPD has 100 seats - short of a majority.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #93 on: October 21, 2017, 11:53:48 AM »

Currently, I have:

71% Right (ANO, TOP09, ODS, SPD, STAN, KDU-CSL, Svobodni, Realists, ROZUMNI)
27% Left (Pirates, Social Dems, Communists, Greens)
  2% Others (with less than 0.5% each)
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #94 on: October 21, 2017, 12:04:24 PM »

From what I understand, some 70% voted for Center-Right parties (which would be even more than the 58% in Germany and 63% in Austria).

Still behind Poland.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #95 on: October 21, 2017, 12:10:00 PM »

Really happy with SPD results, a strong signal against mass immigration
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Diouf
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« Reply #96 on: October 21, 2017, 12:29:33 PM »

Babis says he is reaching out to all the party leaders of the new parliament, and hopes a new government can be in place quickly. He also underlines that ANO is a pro-European party, and that Czechia will remain a solid part of EU and NATO. But he says the idea of a two-speed EU and new integration plans should stop.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #97 on: October 21, 2017, 12:33:40 PM »

Babis says he is reaching out to all the party leaders of the new parliament, and hopes a new government can be in place quickly. He also underlines that ANO is a pro-European party, and that Czechia will remain a solid part of EU and NATO. But he says the idea of a two-speed EU and new integration plans should stop.

So he's saying the same things that Kurz said after the election ...
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Diouf
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« Reply #98 on: October 21, 2017, 12:45:34 PM »

Babis says he is reaching out to all the party leaders of the new parliament, and hopes a new government can be in place quickly. He also underlines that ANO is a pro-European party, and that Czechia will remain a solid part of EU and NATO. But he says the idea of a two-speed EU and new integration plans should stop.

So he's saying the same things that Kurz said after the election ...

More Austro-posting is not needed, but yes largely sounded like a fairly standard centre-right party. He has never been very Eurosceptic, so not much of a surprise. Perhaps underlining it is a signal that he will try to court current coalition partners CSSD and KDU-CSL first. And maybe to calm leaders in other European countries as the lazy Trump comparisons have been written in too many newspapers.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #99 on: October 21, 2017, 01:54:06 PM »

From what I understand, some 70% voted for Center-Right parties (which would be even more than the 58% in Germany and 63% in Austria).

That depends on how you define them.  If you use the European definition true, if you use the British/Canadian one social democratic/Green parties on left, liberals in the centre, and conservatives on the right while the American is conservatives on the right everyone else on the left.  Otherwise using the Anglo-Saxon one, I have Germany at 46% right wing, yes the FDP tilts to the right but they are sort of a mix of social and classical liberals and I think under Guido Westerwelle they were more pro free market like the VVD in Netherlands and Venestre in Denmark, but now more like the D66 and Liberal Democrats in UK.  The left in Germany I have at 39% and the rest in the centre or close to.

For Austria I have 58% right wing, 35% left wing as Neos seems fairly centrist, maybe somewhat market oriented but on the political spectrum similar to where Jean Chretien and Paul Martin were in Canada, Bill Clinton in the US and even Barack Obama to some extent, as well as Nick Clegg in the UK.

For Czech Republic, ANO 2011 I put as centre as their ideology seems incoherent but basically they seem to be all things to all people so we probably won't know until they govern which they are.  I consider STAN centrist and even KDU-CSL is pretty centrist too.

Mind you in North America our right is a lot more dogmatic than in Europe and tends to have little tolerance for those who don't tow the line.  Someone like Michael Chong who was considered a liberal plant in the Tories would probably sit to the right of most mainstream centre-right parties in Europe save the far right and be similar to Theresa May and David Cameron on the political spectrum.  Likewise in the US John Kasich who many called a RINO would sit to the right of all mainstream right wing parties in Europe although not as right wing as the far right ones.  So I think right vs. left is more perspective although agree this year it seems in most European elections the country as a whole shifted rightwards.  UK, Malta, and Norway were the only ones who stayed with the status quo (Yes centre-right won, but their share of the popular vote fell while Labour Party fell but their centre-left bloc went up mind you the biggest increase came for the Centre Party who as its name says is a centrist one).  In UK the overall government may still be on the right, but Labour in contrast to other social democratic parties saw big gains in votes and did so running on a strongly left wing platform vs. a more moderate one so wouldn't be surprised if social democratic parties elsewhere in Europe try to mimic Sanders and Corbyn to gain amongst the youth.  Whether it will work or not is a different story.  Malta stayed on the left while Iceland next week might be the first case of a European country swinging leftward but we shall see and with how fragmented the parties are there we might not know until the New Year or later who forms government.
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