Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017

[DavidB.]

Czechia will hold a legislative election on 20-21 October 2017. The last election took place in October 2013.

Czechia uses proportional representation: 200 MPs are elected in multi-member constituencies. There is a threshold (national level) of 5% for parties and 10% for coalitions.

From 1996 until 2010, the Czech party system was relatively stable. Two large parties, center-right conservative ODS and social democratic ČSSD, competed for the first place and either one of them led the government. There were two mid-sized parties: the Communists (KSČM) and the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL) -- together, these four parties received over 80% of the parliamentary seats. The 2010 election proved to be somewhat of an earthquake election, however, with the breakthrough of a number of new parties, the Christian Democrats and the governing Greens falling below the 5% threshold, and the loss of support for ODS and ČSSD. Following a corruption scandal the government collapsed and an early election took place in 2013. The seat distribution was as follows:

ODS collapsed as opposition leaders ČSSD remained relatively stable, the populist, ideologically vague party ANO led by billionaire Andrej Babiš came second, pro-European centrist liberal TOP 09 lost some support too, the Christian Democrats re-entered parliament with a strong showing, and the right-wing nationalist Dawn of Direct Democracy entered parliament. Following the election, a coalition of ČSSD, ANO and the Christian Democrats was formed, led by Social Democrat Bohuslav Sobotka.

Brace yourselves: current polls look like this. (Disclamer: polls are sometimes unreliable in Czechia).

ANO are poised to do very well -- given the fact that quite some parties don't manage to surmount the 5% threshold they would get over 35% of parliamentary seats based on these polls. No small feat given that they have been in the government for four years already, with Babiš as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. ČSSD have lost some support; ODS, who reached rock bottom in the last election, could only go up; Dawn are dead since Okamura left the party and formed his own SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy, nothing Social Democratic); TOP 09, who relied heavily on Schwarzenberg, have continued bleeding support to ANO.

Given that Babiš is a media tycoon as well, there have been concerns that he would become Czechia's own Berlusconi; for this reason, parliament earlier this year voted for a law that bans "cabinet ministers from owning media firms or more than a quarter of any company pursuing state contracts or European Union subsidies" (the Economist).

I think we have some Czech posters here, so perhaps they could give us some more information on where the parties stand, what they promise, and what kind of policies they expect in the coming years. Contentious issues include corruption and the adoption of the euro with or without referendum (with polls showing about 75% of Czechs currently oppose adopting the euro).

[DavidB.]

@ApatheticAustrian: Sorry, misread your post. Deleted mine.

What should we make of the persistent communists? They're definititely an abheration in the region.

The communists are the barely reformed "incarnation" of the former ruling communist party; some degree of nostalgia continues to exist with certain demographics (mainly the elderly). Eternal opposition does not hurt the party's performance in elections so it seems these people just want to be heard. I imagine it's the same demographic that still votes for Die Linke in East Germany. The communists seem to do best in the northwest (near the German border, in Sudetenland) and in the industrial east.

The Hungarian MSZP were founded in 1989 by the reformist wing of the ruling Communists, and Slovakian Smer's predecessor was founded by communists too, so that leaves Poland as the only country in the region without a party in parliament that has its roots in the communist regime. Perhaps it's just a historical accident that the commies in Czechia continued to stand in elections after communism without reforming?

[DavidB.]

Forging a coalition with the Communists may seriously hurt ANO's chances of filling the electoral void on the Czech right and replacing the ODS as main party of the Czech right for a longer period of time, though, and ANO have been highly wary of doing anything that can hurt them -- potential members are screened thoroughly and there is a strategy behind everything Babis says in public. I am not sufficiently well-versed in Czech politics to assess whether a coalition (or, perhaps less controversial, outside support deal) between ANO and the Communists is likely and trust you 100% if you say this may be a serious option, but I also think ANO will take into account the above considerations if they have any other options after the election. ANO may already have a majority with the Christian Democrats and either Okamura's SPD or ODS (though, as you said, this will be far from easy too). Things seem to get complicated in any case.

[DavidB.]

Thank you for your great posts in this thread, Diouf.

There is certainly a quite hard vetting process for candidates and members in ANO, but I'm less sure how prepared and thought through all of Babis' statements are, which is partly why it is hard to predict exactly what he and ANO will do. Babis to me seems more like someone who speaks his mind at the moment, despite it maybe contrasting with things he said previously.

You're absolutely right, I should have worded my post differently: most of what Babis says is probably made up on the spot, but the party has an excellent PR machine to spin it as if it is coherent and makes sense.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your updates, Diouf. If these parties (or even either of them...) don't reach the threshold, this can become surprisingly difficult. I don't understand why the Christian Democrats wanted an alliance. Just find another solution to cooperate while not having to pass the 10% threshold.

[DavidB.]

Really happy with SPD results, a strong signal against mass immigration

[DavidB.]

Ugh. Friendship ended with SPD.

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